demography

Social Policy and Demography

In order for a government to plan its policies with regard to social policy, the allocation of scarce resources, land, housing, education and finance, it is necessary to have accurate information and estimates of future trends in population size and distribution. It is important to know whether the population is increasing or decreasing, what the typical family size might be in the future, whether more people will be living alone, and what proportion of the population will be at school, working or possibly unemployed and retired in fifteen or twenty years time. Such information will influence, for example, the number of schools and hospitals, and the number and sizes of houses that will need to be built, the number of teachers, doctors and nurses that need to be trained, the number of jobs that will be required and the number of welfare benefits to be paid out. These changes cannot be made overnight and so governments need this information to be planned out for the future.

Demography

The term used for the study of the population. Information on the population is obtained from a wide variety of sources, such as the compulsory registration of births, marriages and deaths, and national surveys. A main source for this is the census, which has been carried out every 10 years since 1801, with the exception of 1941, when the Second World War made it impractical to hole one, The last census was in March 2011

Factors That Influence Population Size

Births
Deaths
Immigration: the number of people entering the UK for a period of at least a year, so that the UK effectively becomes their country of usual residence.
Emigration: the number of people leaving the UK for a period of at least a year, so that their country of destination effectively becomes their country of usual residence.

Birth Rate

The number of live births per 1,000 of the population each year

The Fertility Rate

A general term which is used to describe either the general fertility rate or the total fertility rate.

General Fertility Rate

The number of live births per 1000 women of child-bearing age (15-44) per year

The Total Fertility Rate

The average number of children women will have during their child-bearing years. The number of births in any society depends on both the fertility rates of women (how many children they have) and the numbers of women of child-bearing age.

Infant Mortality Rate

The number of deaths of babies in their first year of life per 1,000 live births per year.

Death Rate

The number of deaths per 1000 of the population per year.

Life Expectancy

An estimate of how long the average person can be expected to live. Estimates of life expectancy can be based on any age, but the most common are life expectancy at birth and at one year.

Dependent Population

The section of the population which is not in work; and is supported by those who are, such as under-18s (who are still in school or in training); pensioners; the unemployed and others living on welfare benefits.

The Dependent Age Groups

These are those under the age of 18 (17 before 2015) in compulsory education and those over retirement age.

Migration

Changing the country of usual residence for a period of at least a year, so that the country of destination effectively becomes their country of usual residence.

Immigration

Entering another country for a period of at least a year, so that country becomes the one of usual residence

Emigration

Leaving the country of usual residence for another country of a period of at least a year, so that the country of destination becomes the one of usual residence.

Net Migration

The difference between immigration and emigration, and therefore whether the population of a country or an area has gone up or down when both emigration and immigration is taken into account. Net migration is usually expressed in terms of a net gain or increase (+) or net loss or decrease (-) of population.

Natural Population Change

Changes in the size of the population due to changes in the number of births and deaths, excluding migration. Expressed as a natural increase (+) or decrease (-) in population

Population Projections

Predictions of future changes in population size and composition based on past and present population trends

Migration and Globalization

One influence on the population size and composition of the UK has been migration, and globalization has had a significant influence on worldwide migration patterns. Britain's long colonial history means migration has had a significant effect, and turned Britain into a multicultural society even before globalization and membership of the EU began to exercise major influences.

Push And Pull Factors

Migration occurs because of 'push' and 'pull' factors. Push factors are those that may encourage someone to leave their home country, and pull factors are those that may attract them to a new country. Both of these can either encourage people to leave the UK to live abroad or encourage those in other countries to move to the UK.

Push Factors

Include things like escaping poverty or families, lack of jobs and unemployment, the effects of wars and political and religious persecution.

Pull Factors

Include things like better opportunities for jobs, study, a higher standard of living, better healthcare and education, more political and religious freedom and joining relatives.

Reasons To Come To The UK

In 2013, the two main pull reasons for immigration to the UK were work-related reasons and for formal study, followed by family reasons, with people from abroad joining their families in the UK. Around 5% of immigrants are asylum seekers fleeing persecution. Push reasons for emigration from the UK include better career and job opportunities, and higher earnings , the attraction of a better lifestyle, or simply wanting a fresh start. In 2013, a number of emigrants were former immigrants from the EU who decided to return to their own countries.

Global Interconnectedness

This has led to more people's lives connecting with far away places, such as through travel and tourism, the purchase of consumer goods bought from all over the world, and through the internet and social media. In relation to migration, more people are moving between countries for work, and the number of people who live outside their country of birth is now greater than at any time in history, according to the UN.

Globalization and The UK Population

Globalization has had a significant influence on the UK population in recent years, including membership of the EU - free movement. Living globally used to only apply to the wealthy and elite and highly skilled professionals, but it now involves the lives of many ordinary, and increasingly poor people, who seek to migrate to richer countries for employment and better standards of living. This involves great risk, as many European countries including the UK are not very welcoming to poor immigrants, particularly those from outside of the EU.

Effects on The UK - More Immigration from the EU

In the year ending March 2014, EU immigrants made up about 38% of all immigrants

Effects on The UK - Undocumented Workers

Undocumented workers are those who come into the UK illegally, and stay. They are 'pulled' by the prospects of a better life, and often 'pushed' by poverty and the lack of opportunities in their own country, but they lack the skills or wealth to enter the country legally. There is a growing influx of undocumented workers, who are exploited by UK companies. The estimates are hard to figure out, as they 'do not exist'.

Effects on The UK - Changing Families

Migrants from Eastern Europe tend to have larger families, and this has contributed to a new 'baby boom' in the 2000s. Beck and Beck-Gernsheim (2014) talk about the growth of 'world families' and 'distant love', in which love and other forms of relationships are conducted between people living in different countries and continents. Chambers (2012) suggests that globalization has meant there are more global family networks, as migrants in the UK try to maintain their relationships and send money to their families in other countries. Chambers also points to globalization leading to a growing trade in surrogate motherhood, mail-order brides - what Chambers calls the 'purchase of intimacy' - and the purchase of family personal care, such as home helps and nannies from poorer countries across the world, for those who can afford it. 70% of prostitutes in the UK are said to be victims of trafficking.

The Pattern Of Migration 1900-2000

In this period, there were two peak periods of immigration. During the 1930s and up until 1945, several hundred thousand refugees fled to Britain from Europe to escape the effects of Nazi occupation and persecution. Most of these immigrants were white. During the 1950s and 1960s, widespread immigration of British subjects from former British colonies - the (black) New Commonwealth - began, with immigrants arriving from the Caribbean in the 1950s, and from India, Bangladesh (then East Pakistan), Pakistan and Kenya in the 1960s and the 1970s. This was actively encouraged by the British government, which sent out recruiting teams to these countries to solve labour shortages in unskilled and poorly paid occupations in Britain, though Ugandan and Kenyan Asians were fleeing persecution.

Effects of Windrush

This influx of people began to transform Britain into a more ethnically diverse country, and in 2011 around 10% of the UK population were from a non-white ethnic group. DUring the 80s and 90s, there was a net gain in population through migration, but this was at a relatively low level in the majority of years, though it rose sharply in 1997. In the mid/late 2010s, the home office, lead by May, were deporting immigrants who came here under Windrush, as they had never been handed their documents or the home office lost them.

The Pattern of Migration from 2000

During the 200s, net migration reached record peaks between 2004 and 2007, in part as a result of immigration of citizens from the countries that joined the EU in 2004. Between 2007 and 2013, these countries were subject to temporary controls restricting their access to the UK labour market, and immigration was around 10,000 a year. In the 12 months to March 2014, there was a significant increase in immigration from these countries to 28,000, reflecting the lifting of the labour market restrictions in January 2014.

Immigration Stats from 2001

Since the 2004-7 peak, annual net migration has fluctuated between around 180,000 and 250,000. In 2013, around 80% of immigrants came from the following groups, a useful indicator of current trends in migration:

• around 15% were British citizens returning to the UK
• Around 40% were citizens of the EU
• 15% were citizens of the New Commonwealth (Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Nigeria and Sierra Leone etc)
• Around 10% were citizens of the Old Commonwealth, which comprises Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa

The Impact of Migration Since 2001

There is growing distrust and fear of immigrants which has led to the creation and growing success of anti-immigrant political parties in several European countries, such as UKIP in the UK. There have been fears around levels of immigration. They make key contributions to the economy, health and social care, and without them it is difficult to see how the NHS would be properly staffed.

• Link to BREXIT - Led to some of the lowest immigration levels in recent years,

Natural Population Change in the UK

Since 1900, most of the growth in the UK population has been to natural increases, with more births than deaths and greater life expectancy. 36.3 million in 1901 to 64 million in 2013. Since 1900, a continuing fall in the death rate combined with a falling birth rate has slowed down population growth compared to the nineteenth century, and there has been greatly improved life expectancy.

'Baby Booms'

The birth rate has been generally declining since 1900, but there have been some periodic increases in births - 'baby booms' - after the two world wars as couples started families delayed by separation, with another boom in the 1960s as living standards rose, and another smaller baby boom in the 2000s, largely fueled by mothers delaying children until they were older, and immigration of women of child-bearing age from Eastern and Central Europe, where women tend to have more children.

Explanations for Changes in the Death Rate, Infant Mortality Rate and Increased Life Expectancy

Improved hygiene, sanitation and medicine,
Higher living standards,
Public health and welfare
Health Education
Improved working conditions

Improved Hygiene, Sanitation and Medicine

Public hygiene and sanitation have improved enormously since the early C19th, with the construction of public sewer systems and the provision of clean running water. These changes, together with improved public awareness of hygiene and causes of infection, have contributed to the elimination in Britain of epidemics such as cholera, typhoid, which were spread through infected water and food. McKeown (1976) suggested these improvements in environmental conditions, coupled with the steady rise in living standards and better diet and nutrition, were more important than medical advances in wiping them out. The major causes of death today in Britain are from the non-infectious degenerative diseases such as cancer and heart disease.

Higher Living Standards

As McKeown suggested, rising standards of living have further assisted in reducing death rates. Higher wages, better food, more amenities and appliances in the home and better housing conditions have all assisted in improving the health and life expectancy of the population.

Public Health and Welfare

There has been a steep rise in state intervention in public health and welfare, particularly since the establishment of the welfare state in 1948. The NHS has provided free and comprehensive health care and there is much better antenatal and postnatal care for mothers and babies. Health visitors check on babies - lowers infant mortality rate.

Health Education

There has been a growing awareness of nutrition and its importance to health. Improved educational standards generally, and particularly in health education, have led to a much better informed public, who demand better hygiene and public health, and welfare legislation and social reforms to improve health. Websites - NHS, WebMD etc.

Improved working conditions

Working conditions improved dramatically in the twentieth century. Technology has taken over some of the more health damaging tasks and higher standards of health and safety at work, shorter working hours and more leisure time has all made work physically less demanding and therefore has reduced the risk to health.

Britain's Ageing Population

The declined death rate and increased life expectancy have meant that people are living longer. The decline in the birth rate has meant that fewer children are being born as well, and this has changed the overall age structure of the population. In 1901, 33% of the population were under 15 and 4% were over 65. In 2012, 17% were over 65%.

An Ageing Population

A population in which the average age is getting higher, with a greater proportion of the population over retirement age and a smaller proportion of young people.

The Consequences of An Ageing Population

Spijker and MacInnes (2013) say that even though there are now more people over 65 in the UK than children under 15, the ageing population should not be regarded as a problem. Rising life expectancy means older people are 'younger'. The legal abolition of the retirement age (65) in 2011 means that employers can no longer force their workers to retire. Lawton (2013) - this gives older people the freedom to work for as long as they choose - boosts economy

Ageing Population - The Family

The experiences of ageing could also vary according to the type of family or household in which people live. The ageing population is likely to generate more family and household diversity, with a return of the classic extended family, more one person households and combined with a declining birth rate, more beanpole families. These may affect the kind of support networks people have as they grow older.

The Advantages of An Ageing Population

A boost to the economy - Lawton points out that the ageing population brings with it the emergence of new markets. The purchasing power of old people - the 'grey pound' - will make an increasingly important contribution to the UK economy in the leisure and culture industries which account for a large share of 65-74 year olds' spending.

More social cohesion and community involvement - As the population ages, more and more older people play a wider role in their community as they retire. The Department of Culture, Media and Sport's Taking Part survey in 2013-14 found that nearly 4.9 million people aged 65 or older took part in volunteering work.

Less Crime - Older people are, in general, more law-abiding than younger people, so societies with ageing populations are likely to have lower crime rates.

The Disadvantages of An Ageing Population

A growing burden of dependence and the 'pensions timebomb' - the growing proportion of elderly people in the population creates a growing burden of dependence, or an increasing dependency ratio. This could mean higher taxes on those working.

More poverty and family hardship - As Marxists suggest, an ageing population can mean more poverty, as in capitalist societies it is only through selling their labour power that most people are able to maintain a reasonable standard of living. In 2013 - 1.6 million pensioners were under the poverty line.

A loss of skill and experience from the labour force, which has been built up over a lifetime, This can take a long time to replace, and many employers today often regard younger workers as less reliable and less committed to their work than older people.

Dependency Ratio

The relationship between the proportion of the population who are working and those who are dependent and are not working.

The Decline in The Birth Rate

Since 1900, the birth rate has been declining in the UK from 29 per 1,000 to about 13 per 1000 in 2012.
2.8 children per woman of child-bearing age in 1961, 1.92 in 2012.

These changes have meant that, since 1900, average family and household sizes have been dropping, from around 6 dependent children per family to an average of 1.7 dependent children per family in 2012. The average household size in Britain has almost halved in the last 100 years, from 4.6 people to around 2.4 people in 2014. The trend towards smaller families, more lone parent families and in particular, more people living alone explains this reduction in average household size.

Contraception

More effective, safer and cheaper methods of birth control have been developed over the last century, and society's attitudes towards the use of contraception has changed towards acceptance, particularly due to feminism and the woman's movement. This is partly because of of growing secularization and the declining influence of the church and religion on people's behaviour and morality. The availability of legal and safe abortion since 1967 has also helped in terminating unwanted pregnancies. Family planning is therefore easier.

Compulsory Education

Since children were barred from employment in the C19th and education became compulsory in 1880, they have ceased to be an economic asset that can contribute to family income through working at an early age. Children have therefore become an economic liability and a drain on the resources of the parents, because they have to be supported for a long period in compulsory education, and often in post 17/18 education and training, including university and college years. Parents today often have to support their children well into their 20s.

The Rising Cost of Having Children

Research carried out by Opinion Matters for insurance company Ariva in 2011 suggested that the average of the British family is declining because of the costs of bringing up children. The average cost of raising a child until the age of 21 is £271,000.

The Changing Position of Women

McRobbie (2008) - argues that the once common aspiration among women to get married and have children has been replaced by a desire for a degree
-feminism

• fertility rates have decreased

The Declining Infant Mortality Rate

Until the 1940s, the absence of the welfare state meant that many parents relied on their children to care for them in old age. However, although more babies were beginning to survive infancy, it was still often uncertain whether children would outlive their parents. Parents therefore often had many children to safeguard against some of them dying. The decline in the infant mortality rate and the death rate has meant that fewer people die before adulthood and old age, so parents no longer have more children as security against only a few surviving.

A Geographically Mobile Labour Force

Contemporary societies generally require a geographically mobile workforce. This may have been a factor in encouraging smaller families, because they can more easily pack up and move elsewhere.

Changing Values

Parenthood involves greater pressure on couples, a lifelong commitment, a loss of freedom and independence, and sacrifices like cuts in money to spend on consumer goods and the loss of time for leisure and pleasure. With growing individualization and the impact of feminism, many women want more from life beyond motherhood. As postmodernists suggest, in an age in which consumer values dominate and people seek to develop their identities through their consumer spending and leisure choices, couples are becoming more reluctant to have children