LatAm PS - topic 6 - flashcard | Quizlet

the state of democracy in LAC: regional trends

since the democratic transitions in the 1970s-80s, Latin America has seen a democratic strain, many trends include:

- political polarization

- attacks on electoral institutions

- growth of fake news and accusations of electoral fraud

- democratic backsliding: attacks on media, civil liberties and institutions

generally, support for democracy is low: worst cases of democracy are seen in Venezuela, Nicaragua and El Salvador

Latin America in a global perspective

- globally, 47% of countries fell in democratic indicators in recent years

- LA is the 3rd most democratic region in the world, only behind North America and Western Europe (this shows that despite decline, the region still contains traditions favoring rule of law)

- LA democratic erosion differs from that of eg. Europe because crime, illegal economies, migration and climate pressures create specific vulnerabilities

main democratic deficits in LA

- organized crime

- corruption and weak rule of law

- electoral irregularities

- weak representation and distrust in institutions

regime types and population distribution

- 66% live in electoral democracies (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador)

- only 4% live in liberal democracies (Chile, Costa Rica, Uruguay)

- 22% live in the electoral democratic 'grey zone' (Mexico)

- 9% live in autocracies (Cuba and Haiti (closed autocracies); El Salvador, Nicaragua and Venezuela)

support for democracy in LA (LAPOP data)

- 59% in 2023 (compared to 68% in 2013)

- higher in countries with higher-quality democracies (Uruguay, Costa Rica, Chile)

- very low in esp. Guatemala and Honduras

- big long-term declines in Argentina and Colombia

satisfaction with democracy in LA (LAPOP data)

- only 41% are satisfied with the functioning of their democracy

- highest levels of satisfaction in El Salvador, Uruguay, Costa Rica and Mexico

- the rest of LAC scores below 50% with the lowest in Peru, Panama, Ecuador and Bolivia

- biggest drop in Ecuador but increase in Brazil since arrival of Lula

trust in institutions in LA (LAPOP data)

- generally courts 35%, parliaments 31% and presidency 34%

- more trust in military or religious institutions, to the detriment of civilian institutions

- progressive decline in the trust of the presidency (reduction of trust towards the executive) (esp. in Chile, Colombia and Ecuador; exceptions in Mexico and El Salvador due to strong leaders)

democratic backsliding

the gradual, state-led erosion of institutions that sustain democracy elected leaders who abuse their power

two distinct paths of democratic backsliding

1. classic path: growing repression of rights and civil liberties + deteriorating political discourse

2. concentration of power in the executive (delegative democracy: erosion of horizontal accountability)

democratic backsliding differs from democratic breakdowns in 2 fundamental ways...

1. dismantling of institutions occur gradually

2. leaders hold a facade of legitimacy

Levtisky & Ziblatt (2018) describe a sequence of of 3 phases...

1. weakening of constitutional chekcs

2. attacks on the rights and freedoms of the opposition

3. manipulation of electoral rules to benefit government

democratic backsliding in Mexico

concentration of executive power by Lopez Obrador has challenged core democratic norms, starting with the tolerance of opponents and political pluralism

democratic backsliding in Nicaragua

Ortega's loyalists have dominated state institutions, rewrite laws to attacks critics, manipulate elections and undermine freedoms of assembly, speech and the press

democratic backsliding in El Salvador

Bukele, as a popular anti-establishment leader that was elected democratically amid widespread public dissatisfaction, undermines institutions of horizontal accountability

difference between democratic backsliding and authoritarianism

key-criterion: existence of competitive elections!

(but democratic backsliding can be aggravated and evolve into authoritarianism)

Venezuela's authoritarian transformation

- early warning signs: asymmetric party fragmentation, institutional capture and violence

- autocracies are able to become resilient through fragmentation and transnational alliances

- main explanatory factors: politics (polarization), economy (recessions and slow development), culture (underdeveloped emancipatory values) & international context (diffusion through Russia and China etc.)

failed process of constitutional reform in Chile

background: the 1950 constitution was written under the dictatorship in a content of repression, after the return to democracy, it was reformed but not replaced entirely and a popular perception of illegitimacy persisted

- some reforms were made in 1989 such as elimination of ideological restrictions on parties, but authoritarian ideas were kept

- in 2005, a package of reforms was introduced under Lagos' presidency but limits and supermajorities remained

- president Bachelet pledged to change the constitution and created a draft that expanded social rights and better rule of law, but this was delivered late and was not processes under the new president (Piñera)

- a plebiscite in November 2019 supported the drafting of a new constitution which started in 2021/22

- the first draft of 2022 involved key features such as Chile as a plurinational state, an indigenous justice system and abolition of the senate; but was rejected by 62% due to perceived radicalism and political showmanship

- an alternative formula for constitution-making was adopted and the 2023 draft was done in a 'top-down' process and introduced a.o. 'social and democratic rule of law', strict migration laws and benefits to higher-income groups

- the left and center parties were against this, rights and republicans were in favor

- it was rejected with 55,76%... so the 1980 constitution remains

Nicaragua: an authoritarian regime

- president Ortega's goals: to stay in power, control elections and concentrate all power

- methods: legislative dominance allowing rapid legal changes; extreme repression since 2018, closure if thousands of organizations, arrests and exiles; restrictions on association, expression, NGO's and opposition; bans on observations and competitive elections

- result: no institutional oversight or accountability (so Nicaragua is NO democracy!)

recent constitutional reform proposals (2024/2025)

- elevates vice-president (wife) to co-president and son will take over

- extension of presidential terms and military intervention powers

- allows temporary occupation of executive roles by military/police

- traitors to the homeland lose their Nicaraguan identity