why do coercive states rarely survive in the long term?

media

• in an ‘information’ era it is incredibly difficult to restrict social media access

• it is harder to restrict the information flow from populations with ‘better’ living conditions and rights in neighbouring/international countries

• uncensored footage emerging from palestine was shared rapidly by the western world following repeated missile strikes from israel, leading to widespread condemnation and protests towards the israeli regime

isolation

• coercive regimes can find themselves isolated from the ever-important international community

• liberal democracy is continuing to grow as the dominant form of government across the globe

• north korea is often referred to as the ‘hermit kingdom’ due to its isolationism

• the country wants its citizens to believe that they are superior to the rest of the world, and to maintain this believe, they isolate themselves from the rest of the world so that their citizens cannot compare their lives to the outside world and claim they are bad

costly

• coercive power is expensive and can drain resources

• it requires the state to devote large amounts of resources to und the military, police, and secret service

• this can provide a drain on the economy and divert funding from other, legitimate areas

• former south africa government, under apartheid, used violent repression to maintain its power and control over the black population

• used the police and military to suppress protests and resistance, which required significant resources to sustain

• the government ended up putting more money into security and police, rather than education, healthcare, leading to increased poverty and social inequality

accustomed to force

• the population can become accustomed to force

• this means greeted levels of coercion have to be employed

• using force to hold on to power typically results in the continuous escalation of the amount of force required

• former government of syria, under the arab socialist ba’ath party had to increase the use of force to maintain control

• syrian government responded with extreme violence to the outbreak of the 2011 anti-government protest movement, leading to the ongoing syrian civil war, 

• the government's use of force against protesters was one of the key factors that exacerbated the conflict, causing a state of chaos and violence

provokes reaction

• coercion often provokes a reaction from the oppressed

• force is subject to a law of diminishing returns

• american-led military interventions in the middle east radicalised nationalist forces in the muslim world

• some of these radical forces attempted retaliatory attacks against the united states in return

• osama bin laden described the 9/11 attacks as retaliatory strikes against american atrocities