Fashion Forecasting Study Guide

What is the first step in organizing trend forecasting?

Identify facts about past trends and forecasts

Why is it important to determine the causes of change in the past?

To understand what influenced shifts in trends, helping to better predict future developments

What should be investigated when reviewing past forecasts?

The difference betweeen past forecasts and actual behavior

What should be analyzed to predict future trends?

Factors likely to affect trends in the future

Why should forecasts be applied continually?

To determine reasons for significant deviations from expected plans

When should forecasts be revised?

When significant deviations or new information arise

How are fashions typically adopted by society?

Fashions are accpeted by a few before they are accepted by the majority

What is an important step in fashion forecasting?

Isolating and identifying fashion leaders and tracking their influence

What are the three theories of fashion adoption?

Downward-flow theory, horizontal-flow theory, and upward-flow theory.

Who are considered fashion leaders?

Innovators and influentials, royalty, the rich, the famous, and athletes

Why are fashion followers important?

The fashion industry would collapse; they are the industry’s lifeblood

What role do fashion leaders play in the industry?

They stimulate and excite the fashion industry

Why is understanding the sociological environment important in fashion?

Because fashion trends begin, grow, and fade within a specific sociological context

How does leisure time affect fashion trends?

It leads to demand for casual living styles and active sportswear

What influence do ethnic groups have on fashion?

They contribute to cultural diversity and inspire new fashion trends

How does the status of women impact fashion?

Changes in women’s roles and rights influence the styles and function of fashion

What role does social and physical mobility play in fashion?

It spreads fashion ideas and trends across different groups and locations

How has instant communication influenced fashion?

It accelerates trend dissemination and global fashion influence

What effect do wars, disasters, and crises have on fashion?

They often lead to shifts in values, materials, and consumer priorities, impacting fashion trends

How is fashion used in society according to the psychological environment?

Fashion is used to attract others, indicate social and economic success, show leadership, and identity with a social group

What are the 5 basic pyschological factors that influence fashion?

Boredom, curiosity, reaction to convention, need for self-assurance, and desire for companionship

How has online shopping impacted fashion retail?

It has transformed retail to the point where fashion films are sometimes more influential than traditional runway shows

What is the relationship between fast fashion and sustainability?

Fast fashion is the opposite of sustainability, raising concerns about cheap, disposable fashion in the West

What is “eco-chic”, and how is it changing perceptions?

Eco-chic refers to sustainable fashion that doesn’t have to be prohibitively expensive

How have the vectors of fashion shifted in recent years?

Celebrities have replaced models as the main fashion influencers, dominating magazine covers and luxury-brand campaigns

How is cosmetic surgery related to fashion culture today?

It is widespread and controversial, similar to fast fashion, influenced by constant exposure to celebrity images

How has Michelle Obama influenced fashion culture?

She has become a fashion icon with a strong onling following and has emphasized wearing what makes her feel good

Who is Tom Ford and how is he significant in fashion and cinema?

Tom Ford transitioned from fashion designer to filmmaker, bringing cinematic storytelling into fashion.

What are the three main ways fashion and cinema collaborate?

• Films that showcase designer work (e.g. The Devil Wears Prada)

• Collaborations between costume designers and fashion houses (e.g. The Great Gatsby)

• Vanity films with cohesive artistic vision (e.g. A Single Man)

Which film inspired Marc Jacobs’ Louis Vuitton show?

Anna Karenina (2012) by Joe Wright.

How did Sex and the City influence fashion on TV?

It popularized fashion-focused TV and was succeeded by shows like Ugly Betty and Mad Men.

What was the fashion impact of Mad Men?

It influenced store displays and fashion editorials worldwide with its vintage styling.

How did Gossip Girl change the relationship between fashion and consumers?

It exemplified "é-tailing," where viewers could instantly buy fashion seen on screen via style guide websites.

How has fashion integrated with art and museums?

Fashion houses now open their own galleries and sponsor art exhibitions, a trend that began in the 1990s.

What are examples of fashion-documentary films?

The September Issue (2009) and Bill Cunningham New York (2010), both offering insights into fashion journalism.

What is the significance of the Gucci Museum in Florence?

It showcases Gucci’s brand heritage, blending fashion with cultural history.

What is “Zeitgeist” and why is it important in trend forecasting?

Zeitgeist means "spirit of the time" and refers to the cultural, intellectual, and moral atmosphere of an era. It helps forecasters understand emerging trends and consumer behavior.

What is the definition of a trend in fashion?

A pattern or direction of change in behavior or style that becomes popular or fashionable at a specific time.

What does the trend forecasting schedule look like?

• 24 months ahead: Color/material/surface

• 20 months: Yarn, fabric, knitwear

• 18 months: Macro trends

• 12 months: Product design

• 6 months: Range development and production

What is the diffusion-of-innovation theory?

A theory that explains how trends spread: starting with innovators, then early adopters, followed by the early majority, late majority, and finally laggards.

How does a trend typically rise and fall according to Rogers?

A trend rises through innovators and early adopters, peaks with the early majority, and fades after adoption by the late majority and laggards.

What is the typical lifespan of a fad?

3–6 months.

How do fads differ from trends?

Fads are short-lived niche looks that consumers quickly tire of, while trends last 6 months to 5 years and can influence long-term fashion direction.

How long do seasonal trends last?

6–12 months.

How long do long-term trends typically last?

About 5 years.

Who are considered traditional fashion influencers?

Stylists, editors, writers, designers, retailers, celebrities, costume designers, and models.

Who are the new influencers in the fashion industry?

Street-style stars, bloggers, social media stars, and creative consumers.

What do color forecasters do?

They create color palettes through research and analysis to inform designers and guide the trend cycle.

What is the role of materials specialists in forecasting?

They analyze the texture and composition of materials and predict upcoming surface trends, working with scientists and manufacturers.

What are the four traditional global fashion capitals?

Paris, London, Milan, and New York.

Why is Paris seen as the fashion capital of France?

Due to historical centralization of power in politics, culture, and media.

What is London’s main contribution to fashion history?

Historically rooted in men’s fashion and the origin of dandyism (Beau Brummell).

When did New York become a fashion capital?

After World War II, due to innovation in ready-to-wear and sportswear.

When did Milan become recognized as a fashion capital?

In the late 1970s, after competition with Rome, Florence, and Venice.

What is “path dependence” in fashion?

The idea that fashion capitals retain influence due to historical economic decisions and trajectories.

Which non-capital cities influence fashion creativity?

Tokyo, Antwerp, Los Angeles, and São Paulo.

Why didn't Tokyo and Antwerp become full fashion capitals?

Due to a “brain-drain,” where top designers relocated to Paris or London.

What is the paradox of the fashion industry today?

While design and marketing are centralized in fashion capitals, production is often offshored to low-cost countries.

What was the significance of John Naisbitt's Megatrends (1982)?

It was the first trendsetting book to become a best-seller, shaping long-term forecasting.

What are the four elements of long-term forecasting?

• Time frame (5–10+ years)

• Techniques for capturing signals

• Methods to interpret signals

• Scope of forecast (global, national, demographic)

What are Jonah Berger’s 6 STEPPS principles for viral trends?

1. Social Currency

2. Triggers

3. Emotion

4. Public

5. Practical Value

6. Stories

What’s the difference between behavioral and attitudinal trends?

Behavioral trends impact sales directly; attitudinal trends affect consumer preferences and marketing strategies.

What are microtrends vs. macrotrends?

• Microtrends: Affect small groups; can signal larger upcoming shifts.

• Macrotrends: Influence broad sectors, markets, and demographics.

What’s the difference between national and international trends?

• National trends: Specific to one country.

• International trends: Spread across countries with similar socio-economic traits.

What does trend expert William Higham call trend initiators

Factors that a consumer reacts to, categorized as PEST:

• Political

• Economic

• Sociocultural

• Technological

What is media scanning in trend research?

Monitoring magazines, movies, books, and social media for cultural indicators and changes.

What is the Delphi Method in interviewing?

A technique where experts are consulted to reach a consensus on forecasts within their domain.

What was the Consumer Behavior Odyssey?

A 1980s cross-country trip where researchers studied consumer behavior in natural settings using qualitative methods.

What is a scenario in forecasting?

A narrative or projection of how current trends may evolve into various futures.

What are the three basic types of scenarios?

• Surprise-Free Scenario – continuation of current trends

• Best-Case Scenario – optimistic outlook

• Worst-Case Scenario – pessimistic outcome

What is the final step in scenario planning?

Identifying key indicators to watch that could signal which scenario is unfolding.

What are the three basic characteristics of color?

Hue (the color itself), Saturation (intensity or purity), and Value (lightness or darkness).

What is the difference between a tint, shade, and tone?

• Tint: Color + white

• Shade: Color + black

• Tone: Color + gray

What does the term "concentrated" refer to in color?

Intense or strong colors.

What organization began color forecasting in the U.S. and when?

The Textile Color Card Association of America (now CAUS) in 1915; first forecast was Fall 1917.

How far in advance do color forecasters work?

18 to 24 months before the season.

What is the role of Pantone?

Pantone provides a universal color language used by over 10 million designers and manufacturers.

What method does Japan's NCD use in color forecasting?

A six-step analysis:

1. Current trends

2. Current colors

3. Image analysis

4. Lifestyle patterns

5. Color preference patterns

6. Forecast synthesis

What is a fiber?

A fine, hairlike strand—smallest element in fabric.

What are the four main natural fibers?

Cotton, Wool, Silk, Flax (linen).

What are the two types of manufactured fibers?

• Cellulosic (e.g., rayon, acetate, lyocell)

• Non-cellulosic (e.g., polyester, nylon, acrylic)

What is a textile?

A flexible material made from fibers, yarns, or films, woven or knitted.

What are trims and findings?

• Trims: Decorative (e.g., lace, beads, feathers)

• Findings: Functional or decorative (e.g., zippers, Velcro, thread)

What are the hree types of textile finishes?

• Preparatory: Prepares for processing

• Functional: Changes performance (e.g., waterproofing)

• Aesthetic: Changes appearance/texture

Name two examples of sustainable textile sources.

Organic cotton, Hemp, Bamboo, Eucalyptus, Pineapple, Soy, Seaweed.

List four important international textile fairs.

• Première Vision (Paris)

• Pitti Filati (Florence)

• Interstoff (Asia)

• Spin Expo / TexWorld (New York)

What are the 5 steps in textile/materials forecasting?

1. Formulate ideas (research)

2. Collect fabric/material swatches

3. Edit, interpret, analyze & predict

4. Identify fabric/materials (with details)

5. Write a story describing inspiration and usage

What's the difference between primary and secondary research?

• Primary Research (PR): First-hand experience (e.g., exhibitions, travel)

• Secondary Research (SR): Info from others (books, trend reports, media)

What are key sources of trend inspiration?

Nature, culture, history, travel, architecture, music, movies, youth culture, street style, and technology.

What does effective image sourcing involve?

Consistent, categorized collection and archiving—physically (mood boards, folders) or digitally (Pinterest, blogs, IG).

What role does intuition play in forecasting?

It helps interpret trends subconsciously, recognizing the new, unusual, and noteworthy.

Why is naming a trend important?

It communicates the trend's essence, must be memorable, and work with the visuals.

What are examples of creative trend names?

Instead of "Tropical" → use "Palm Shadows"; instead of "Western" → use "Future Frontier."

What are the five types of trend reports?

1. Micro – Small-scale, short-term, niche

2. Macro – Broad cultural/market forces

3. Consumer – Focused on consumer behavior

4. Subject-Specific – Product or category-focused

5. Timeline – Traces trend from inception to mainstream

Name 4 presentation formats used in trend forecasting.

• Online reports

• Printed reports

• Swatch books

• PowerPoint slides

What is a “trend room”?

An immersive physical space at trade shows where trends can be experienced through samples, colors, and materials.

What should you keep in mind when designing a trend report?

• Layout consistency

• Font/readability

• Audience (casual, formal, or professional)

• Use of imagery and references

• Modularity (can it be split for different teams?)