LESSON 10 | GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY AND MIGRATION

Demography

The scientific study of the distribution, composition, and changes of human populations.

Malthusian Theory

A theory that argues human population tends to outgrow food supply, introduced by Thomas Robert Malthus.

Human population

exponential growth

Food supply

arithmetic growth

MALTHUSIAN THEORY

He believed that preventive and positive checks would control the population to balance the food supply with the population level.

Preventive Check

Measures such as family planning and late marriages that aim to control population growth.

Positive Check

Natural forces that correct the imbalance between food supply and population.

Demographic Transition Model

A theory stating that a country's total population growth rate goes through cyclical stages as it develops economically.

Stage 1 of Demographic Transition

High birth and death rates; population size is stable.

Stage 2 of Demographic Transition

Low death rates; high birth rates leading to accelerated population growth.

Stage 3 of Demographic Transition

Decreasing birth rates due to improved economic conditions and access to contraception.

Stage 4 of Demographic Transition

Characterized by low birth and death rates in developed countries.

Stage 5 of Demographic Transition

Possible stage where elderly population outnumbers the youthful population due to low fertility.

Global Population

1950- 2 billion

2005- 6.5 billion

2017- 7.6 billion

2050-9.8 billion

-distribution of the 2017 population

60% live in Asia

17% in Africa

10% in Europe

3 Major Demographic Processes

1. Birth/ Fertility rate

2. Aging/ Mortality rate

3. Migration

Fertility Rate

An estimate of the average number of children a woman would have during her lifetime.

Top 10 Countries with the Highest Fertility Rates (by births per woman) - World Bank 2021 (2019 data)

1. Niger - 6.8

2. Somalia - 6.0

3. Congo (Dem. Rep.) - 5.8 (tie)

4. Mali - 5.8 (tie)

5. Chad - 5.6

6. Angola - 5.4

7. Burundi - 5.3 (tie)

8. Nigeria - 5.3 (tie)

9. Gambia - 5.2

10. Burkina Faso - 5.1

Top 15 Countries with the Lowest Fertility Rates (by births per woman) - World Bank 2021 (2019 data)

1. South Korea - 0.9

2. Puerto Rico (U.S. territory) - 1.0

3. Hong Kong (China SAR) - 1.1 (tie)

4. Malta - 1.1 (tie)

5. Singapore - 1.1 (tie)

6. Macau (China SAR) - 1.2 (tie)

7. Ukraine - 1.2 (tie)

8. Spain - 1.2 (tie)

9. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1.3 (tie)

10. San Marino - 1.3 (tie)

11. Moldova - 1.3 (tie)

12. Italy - 1.3 (tie)

13. Andorra - 1.3 (tie)

14. Cyprus - 1.3 (tie)

15. Luxembourg - 1.3 (tie)

Reasons for fertility decline:

1. Women empowerment

2. Technological and economic changes

3. Changing norms

4. Opportunities for family planning

5. Other factors like decrease in fertility and separation of couples.

Mortality Rate

Expressed in units of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year.

Top 10 Countries with the Highest Death Rates (per 1,000 people) - United Nations 2015-2020

1. Bulgaria - 15.4

2. Ukraine — 15.2

3. Latvia — 14.61

4. Lesotho - 14.3

5. Lithuania - 13.6

6. Serbia - 13.2

7. Croatia - 13.1

8. Romania - 13.0

9. Georgia - 12.8

10. Russia - 12.7

Top 10 Countries with the Lowest Death Rates (per 1,000 people) - United Nations 2015-2020:

1. Qatar - 1.2

2. United Arab Emirates - 1.5

3. Bahrain - 2.4

4. Oman - 2.4

5. Kuwait - 2.7

6. Maldives - 2.8

7. Saudi Arabia - 3.5

8. Palestine (U.N. observer state) - 3.5

9. Jordan - 3.9

10. Solomon Islands - 4.3

Reasons for population decline

1. Population aging

- In 2050, there will be twice as many older citizens than children.

2. Demographic suicide

- Excess of death over birth.

Countries experiencing population aging

2022 2050

JAPAN 29.9% HONGKONG 40.6%

ITALY 24.1% SOUTH KOREA 39.4%

FINLAND 23.3% JAPAN 37.5%

PUERTO RICO 22.9% ITALY 37.1%

PORTUGAL 22.9%. SPAIN 36.6%

MIGRATION

Movement of people from one place to another with the purpose of changing residence either temporary or permanently.

Internal Migration

Movement of people within the same country.

International Migration

Movement of people from one country to another.

Immigrant

enters a country.

Emigrant:

leaves a country.

Push Factor

Forces that drive people to leave their residence, such as social, political, economic, or environmental issues.

Pull Factor

Attractions that draw individuals to a new location, counteracting push factors.

5 Categories of International migration:

1. Immigrants who moved permanently to another country.

2. Workers who stay for a fixed period of time.

3. Illegal immigrants

4. Petitioned families

5. Refugees or asylum seekers

Top Immigrant Receiving Countries

1. USA

2. Germany

3. Saudi Arabia

4. Russia

5. UAE

6. France

7. Canada

8. Australia