LESSON 10 | GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY AND MIGRATION

What is Demography?

  • The Science of population.

  • It is the scientific study of the distribution, composition and changes of human populations.

Pre Transition

MALTHUSIAN THEORY

* Introduced by Thomas Robert Malthus

* A theory that argues that human population tend to outgrow food supply.

* Human population – exponential growth

* Food supply – arithmetic growth

MALTHUSIAN THEORY

He believed that preventive and positive checks would control the population to balance the food supply with the population level.

Positive check- natural forces will correct the imbalance between food supply and population.

Preventive check- Family planning, late marriages, celibacy to correct the imbalance.

Demographic Transition Model

  • The theory states that a country’s total population growth rate goes through cyclical stages as the country develops economically.

  • It emphasizes the point that the boost in economy and industrial growth directly affect the population structure of human beings.

Stage 1 - Birth and death rates are high.

Stage 2 - Low death rates; birth rates stay high.

Stage 3 - Birth rates are decreasing.

Stage 4 - Low birth and death rates.

Stage 5 - Elderly population outnumber the youthful population.

Stage 1

The condition of the world before the Industrial Revolution where birth and death rates are high making population size stable, disruptions such as wars and pandemics cause occasional declines.

Stage 2

The condition in most of the least developed countries today, this stage is marked by low death rates particularly among children while birth rates stay high resulting in accelerated population growth. Examples are Guatemala, Yemen and Afghanistan.

Stage 3

True to most developing countries, this is the condition where the birth rates are decreasing because of any or a combination of the following factors: access to contraception, increased participation of women in the workforce and improving economic conditions. The population is still increasing in a slower pace.

Stage 4

This is characterized by low birth and death rates. The economy has attained growth and development, people are educated and enjoy good health and jobs are available for both men and women. This is the condition obtaining in developed countries.

Stage 5

Demographic theorists include a possible stage 5 where countries have an elderly population that outnumber the youthful population. This is due to low fertility that has fallen below what is needed to replace the population from generation to generation.

Global Population

1950- 2 billion

2005- 6.5 billion

2017- 7.6 billion

2050-9.8 billion

-distribution of the 2017 population

60% live in Asia

17% in Africa

10% in Europe

3 Major Demographic Processes

1. Birth/ Fertility rate

2. Aging/ Mortality rate

3. Migration

1. BIRTH/ FERTILITY RATE

Fertility rate refers to the estimate of the average number of children that would be born to a woman in a country during the course of her lifetime, assuming she lives a full and healthy life.

  • Pre-modern era: fertility rate is 4.5 to 7 children. There is population growth despite high mortality rate at a young age.

  • 1965: fertility rate remained at more than 5 children/ woman

  • 2017: world fertility rate is below 2.5 children/woman.

Top 10 Countries with the Highest Fertility Rates (by births per woman) - World Bank 2021 (2019 data)

1. Niger - 6.8

2. Somalia - 6.0

3. Congo (Dem. Rep.) - 5.8 (tie)

4. Mali - 5.8 (tie)

5. Chad - 5.6

6. Angola - 5.4

7. Burundi - 5.3 (tie)

8. Nigeria - 5.3 (tie)

9. Gambia - 5.2

10. Burkina Faso - 5.1

Top 15 Countries with the Lowest Fertility Rates (by births per woman) - World Bank 2021 (2019 data)

  1. South Korea - 0.9

  2. Puerto Rico (U.S. territory) - 1.0

  3. Hong Kong (China SAR) - 1.1 (tie)

  4. Malta - 1.1 (tie)

  5. Singapore - 1.1 (tie)

  6. Macau (China SAR) - 1.2 (tie)

  7. Ukraine - 1.2 (tie)

  8. Spain - 1.2 (tie)

  9. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1.3 (tie)

  10. San Marino - 1.3 (tie)

  11. Moldova - 1.3 (tie)

  12. Italy - 1.3 (tie)

  13. Andorra - 1.3 (tie)

  14. Cyprus - 1.3 (tie)

  15. Luxembourg - 1.3 (tie)

Reasons for fertility decline:

1. Women empowerment

2. Technological and economic changes

3. Changing norms

4. Opportunities for family planning

5. Other factors like decrease in fertility and separation of couples.

2. MORTALITY RATE

  • Expressed in units of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year. Example: 9.5/1000/year.

  • 2012 mortality review: 9.7

  • 2016: highest death rate of 14.9 in South Africa.

Top 10 Countries with the Highest Death Rates (per 1,000 people) - United Nations 2015-2020:

  1. Bulgaria - 15.4

  2. Ukraine — 15.2

  3. Latvia — 14.61

  4. Lesotho - 14.3

  5. Lithuania - 13.6

  6. Serbia - 13.2

  7. Croatia - 13.1

  8. Romania - 13.0

  9. Georgia - 12.8

  10. Russia - 12.7

Top 10 Countries with the Lowest Death Rates (per 1,000 people) - United Nations 2015-2020:

  1. Qatar - 1.2

  2. United Arab Emirates - 1.5

  3. Bahrain - 2.4

  4. Oman - 2.4

  5. Kuwait - 2.7

  6. Maldives - 2.8

  7. Saudi Arabia - 3.5

  8. Palestine (U.N. observer state) - 3.5

  9. Jordan - 3.9

  10. Solomon Islands - 4.3

Mortality rate - Philippines

Reasons for population decline

1. Population aging

- In 2050, there will be twice as many older citizens than children.

2. Demographic suicide

- Excess of death over birth.

Countries experiencing population aging

2022 2050

JAPAN 29.9% HONGKONG 40.6%

ITALY 24.1% SOUTH KOREA 39.4%

FINLAND 23.3% JAPAN 37.5%

PUERTO RICO 22.9% ITALY 37.1%

PORTUGAL 22.9%. SPAIN 36.6%

3. MIGRATION

Movement of people from one place to another with the purpose of changing residence either temporary or permanently.

Types of migration:

1. Internal migration- within the country

2. International migration- one country to another.

2.1 Immigrant: enters a country.

2.2. Emigrant: leaves a country.

5 Categories of International migration:

1. Immigrants who moved permanently to another country.

2. Workers who stay for a fixed period of time.

3. Illegal immigrants

4. Petitioned families

5. Refugees or asylum seekers

Top Immigrant Receiving Countries

1. USA

2. Germany

3. Saudi Arabia

4. Russia

5. UAE

6. France

7. Canada

8. Australia

Reasons for Migration

A. Push Factor- forces you to leave.

1. Social Factor: racism, poor services, abuse and violence.

2. Political Factor: government decisions, war

3. Economic Factor: job opportunities

4. Environmental factor: natural disasters

B. Pull Factor- forces you to stay.

-opposite reasons for the push factors.