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population
entire collection of units or measurements of those units in which we are interested
sample
subset of the population selected for the study as it is generally impractical to measure the variable of interest on all individuals in a population
dependent variables
measure the outcome / effect
independent variables e
measures the causes / predictors
categorical (qualitative data)
nominal
ordinal
nominal data
no intrinsic order
ie. blood group, marital status
any values assigned to nominal variables are labels or categories without true numerical properties
ordinal data
ie. pain - none, mild, moderate, severe
any values that can be ranked, but do not have true numerical properties
distances between levels may not be the same (ie. cancer stage 2 is not the same as cancer stage 1)
binary / dichotomus or binomial variables
data that only has 2 possible categories
multinominal if there are more than 2 categories
numerical (quantitative data)
discrete
continuous
discrete data
uses whole numbers
typically a count
ie. number of laps, days of sickness
continuous data
on a scale
intervals - ie. temperature, distance run
ratio - ie. speed in m/min, BMI
interval vs ratio
interval
zero is arbitrary (does not have absolute minimum)
distances between points matter and makes sense (ie. 30 deg - 15 deg = 15 deg) but their ratio does make sense (30 deg is not twice as hot as 15 deg)
ratio
zero point is not arbitrary (zero is absolute)
ratio between points of equal distance is the same and must make sense (ie. 40km/h is 2x as fast as 20km/h)
likert scale
primarily ordinal like a 5p scale for responses to a questionnaire and responses are deemed equal
probability
can take only numerical values from 0 - 1
with values in between levels of uncertainty
p-value
measures the probability of obtaining the result we observed or more extreme, ie. a difference or a relationship between variables (alternative hypothesis), when there is no effect (null). It answers the question: what is the probability that we got our result when it is actually a false alarm and the null is true?
small p-value
the smaller the p-value, the less likely our result was purely due to chance and the stronger the evidence against the null hypothesis, with a cut-off point of 0.05 often being used to define a statistically significant result
p-value = <0.05
result is said to be statistically significant
CI
range of values, derived from sample data, that is likely to contain the true value of an unknown population parameter
what does a 95% CI mean
If we repeat the same experiment a large number of times, the confidence interval is expected to cover the true value 95% of the time
CI
Whilst the p-value is reported to give an indication of the statistical significance or how valid our results are likely to be, the actual result of an experiment or trial are reported in the form of a point estimate. A point estimate can be a mean (average), or a proportion, for example.
The point estimate is often accompanied by a confidence interval enclosed in brackets to express how reliable the result is, in the form of the estimated range of values that is likely to include the true population value. A % value is also given to express how confident we are that the true value lies within that range.
clinical significance
clinically meaningful change
implies a difference that is important enough to make a clinician, patient or investigator change their decision
statistical significance
measures the strength of evidence against the hypothesis or no difference by assessing likelihood that results are not due to chance
may not be clinically important
effect size
the result of a study may sometimes be accompanied by the effect size, which is standardised measures of the magnitude of an effect, generally interpreted from Cohen (1988) - known as Cohen’s d.
since it is standardised it is useful in comparing outcomes on the same scale
standard deviation
descriptive statistic
relates to individual differences around the mean in a sample
measures sample variability
is reliable if the distribution is normal
standard error
inferential statistic that estimates population characteristic
used to estimate
estimates how far the sample mean is likely to be from the population mean and is used to calculate the CI
always smaller than the SD, and gets smaller with larger sample size
error bars
show the extent of uncertainty and useful when comparing data on graphs
risk calculation
number of people with the outcome / the total number of people