Sales forecasting

Sales forecasting

The process of predicting future sales by value or volume of future trends

Time series analysis

Using historical data to predict future sales and trends

Seasonal analysis

Checking sales on a weekly or monthly basis to predict seasonal demand

Trend analysis

Long terms analysis over a couple of years to get the general trend of sales

Cycle analysis

Long term analysis with objective demand levels and economic activity

Random factory analysis

Attempts to explain unusual and large sale periods

Usefulness of time series analysis

Adv- help plans ahead, helps avoid unexpected surprises, helps HR with staff, helps predicts right levels of supply

Disadv- difficult to predict future, success is not guaranteed, not good for long term prediction use, historical data may not be accurate or there may not be enough to make a prediction

Moving averages

Used to help determine significant trends by clothing out fluctuations

Identifies overall trend

How to calc: miss out first then do normal mean calc for every three months

correlations

Helps measure correlation between two variable

Positive, negative, no correlation

Use of marketing research data

Survey of consumer intentions - directly asking what they will do in the future

Direct sales information - sales and trend changes

Test marketing - launch a product in a small area and see how ppl react

The Delphi method

The principle that a structured group of experts is better than individuals

A questionnaire sent out to experts, the responses lead to another questionnaire before a consensus is reached

Adv- structured, flexible, record of expert opinion

Disadv- time consuming, assumes consensus will be reached, monetary payments required

Brain storming

Generating new ideas and critical thinking

Group of six to 12 ppl

Expert opinion

Professionals looking to oversee expert opinion is correct

Intuition

A gut feeling which is unpredictable

Factors affecting qualitative and quantitative methods

Consumers - tastes and preferences

Economic - unemployment, interest rates, inflation

Competition- their actions affect present and future sales