Intel unit 4 terms

Epistemology

The concepts and tools we use to warrant knowledge (how we know what we know)

Anecdotal

Limited to one person’s experiences and generally a low quality form of warrant for a knowledge claim

Peer-reviewed research

When scholars subject their substantive claims and the methods by which they arrived at their conclusions to external, anonymous review by recognized experts in the field of study.

Correlation

Refers to two or more events occurring at roughly the same time and place that may or may not be related casually.

Probabilistic

Type of correlation - expression of the likelihood of event B occurring if cause A happens. (If event A happens, what is % of B occurring?)

Laws

Broadest statements of causality, highlighting an unvarying, deterministic relationship between a cause and its effects

Hypothesis

Specific explanations of cause and effect. Derived from broader casual statements provided by theories, hypothesizes can explain events.

Biases

Problems with perception that cause people to view the world inaccurately and/or make wrong inferences regarding what others perceive.

Vividness of personal experience

The tendency to overestimate the importance or likelihood of an event based on the clarity and intensity of our personal experiences, rather than objective evidence or statistics.

Conformation bias

Tendency to seek out only information that supports prior beliefs

Fundamental attribution error

Cognitive bias where analysts view their countries actions as always right, and adversaries always wrong

Anchoring

Analyst focuses on an initial piece of information, establishing a baseline that may not be representative of the target

Motivated biases

People actively want to believe certain things. Is both emotional and cognitive, connecting one’s identity to a belief. Very hard to alter as it’s tied to deep commitment within them. Make poor analysts

Iraq Survey Group

Over 1000 Americans, British, and Australian citizens and military personnel tasked with finding out what went wrong during Iraq WMD.

Critical Thinking

Reflexivity regarding how one thinks about subjects, that is, thinking about thinking, and the ability to interrogate the possible hidden motives behind the truth claims of others

Falsifiable