Lecture 9 - Terrorism and Insurgency

Beginnings of terrorism (4)

1. 1884

   1. French anarchist tried to blow up Royal Observatory in London but ended up blowing himself up 

   2. This story serves as backdrop of Secret Agent by Conrad -> first terrorists (anarchists) + counterterrorism

      1. Goes onto picking a symbolic target  

Recent study of terrorism (5)

1. 9/11 brought terrorism to forefront of research agendas in IR

   1. Terrorism studied from 1970s, esp after spate of airline hijackings

   2. At least 95% of terrorism research produced after 9/11

   3. Despite major inc in terrorism studies in US + Europe after 9/11, by 2010s major decrease in US but still significant in Europe

2. Emergence of Critical Terrorism Studies (2006): understand terrorism as a process of social construction + understand + criticise counterterrorism
   

Problems w conceptualisation of terrorism (7)

1. Terrorism still defies definition (contested concept)

   1. Terminological confusion 

      1. Freedom fighter

      2. Patriot 

      3. Terrorist 

      4. Guerrilla

      5. Extremist 

Problem with differentiating terrorism from (6)

1. Terrorism

2. Irregular warfare 

3. People’s war

4. Revolutionary warfare

5. Guerrilla warfare

6. Civil War

Example of how to differentiate terrorism from other concepts - Evolution of terrorism

Radicalization/Extremism/Political Subversion -> Terrorism -> Insurgency -> Civil War

Defining terrorism (4)

1. “sustained use of violence against symbolic/civilian targets by small groups for pol purposes through coercion, fear, drawing widespread attention to a pol grievance +/or provoking a draconian/unsustainable response”

   1. Terrorism cannot result in change on its own

2. By provoking a response, terrorists hope that their opponent will overreact

3. Hijacking, bombings, + assassination are criminal acts but legal status of those who conduct them can change if violence is carried out for a pol cause

Hijacking, bombings, + assassination are criminal acts but legal status of those who conduct them can change if violence is carried out for a pol cause - 2 examples

1. Assassinating monarchs in late 19th century are considered acts of terrorism

2. Hijackings of ships off coast of Somalia are criminal bcs motivation is financial gain

Defining terrorism - Schmid

Anxiety-inspiring method of repeated violent action, employed by (semi-) clandestine individual, group/state actors, for idiosyncratic, criminal/pol reasons, whereby direct targets of violence are not main targets

Defining terrorism - Hoffman (4)

1. Terrorism is unique form of non-state violence which requires its own categorization + is distinct from other form of pol violence

2. Focus on terrorism’s role as a vehicle for communication of propaganda

   1. “propaganda of deed”

   2. Violence used as means to draw attention to pol cause

Types + differences of terrorism (9)

1. Separatism

2. Overthrow govs

3. Revolutionary movement

4. Enforce authoritarian regime

5. Right-wing mvt

6. Harm/destroy natural resources (environmental terrorism)

7. Cyber terrorism

8. Domestic vs transnational

9. Goals of terrorist groups may shift over time…

Terrorism vs Insurgency (2)

1. Crucial diff is scope + scale of violence

2. Terrorism rarely results in pol change on its own while insurgency attempts to bring about change through force of arms

Insurgency (6)

1. Adversaries are asymmetric + weaker + almost always substate/group attempts to bring about pol change by administering + fighting more effectively than its state-based for through use of guerrilla tactics.

   1. Raids + ambushes, often by units of organized forces against local security forces, characterize such tactics

2. Insurgency unlike terrorism is characterized by support + mobilization of a significant proportion of pop

3. Having means to contest, hold + govern territory – pol control – is key

4. Hamas or Hezbollah? 

   1. Uses terrorist tactics but also controls territory, provides social welfare to local communities

Historical overview of terrorism (8)

1. Research on terrorism played marginal role in IR prior to 9/11

2. Current perceptions shaped by al-Qaeda + ISIS; what was before?

3. 1990s: Hamas, Hezbollah, lone wolf attacks (Oklahoma City 1995)

4. 1970s-1980s: IRA, PLO, Action Directe, Red Brigades, Red Army Faction, ETA, individuals such as Carlos the Jackal

5. 1950-1960: Malaya, Vietnam, Cyprus, Algeria

6. 1914: assassination of Franz Ferdinand

7. Late 19th century Russia

8. Events such as plane hijacking led to rise of counterterrorism as it stopped looking like small criminal acts

Does terrorism work? (6)

1. Actors may choose terrorism because they expect it to work for them

2. Examples of any successful terrorist groups? -> in terms of attention yes but pol goals not really achieved 

3. Impossible to measure effectiveness of terrorism due to use of other methods

4. Very hard to evaluate whether terrorism was productive/ counterproductive regarding outcome

5. E.g. Front de Libération National (FLN) in Algeria

   1. Their terrorism + later on insurgency to have French gov withdraw from Algeria had some impact on French gov but more generally it became really expensive for the group

Terrorist targeting (8)

1. Strategic Model 

   1. Terrorists weigh their available options based on presumed pol payoffs

   2. Terrorists attack civilians when expected political result is better than with other available tactical options

2. E.g. IRA wanted to avoid killing Americans (as they were supported by Irish sympathisers in Boston) in London so would give a notice to evacuate before throwing bombs

3. Terrorism as a strategy vs as a tactic

   1. As strategy it is mostly ineffective in achieving pol goals of terrorist group

   2. But as a tactic it can be an effective means of communication

4. Marcuse -> Murder is not a pol weapon

Policy response to terrorism (5)

1. Diff definitions causing confusion

2. Unclear upon which factors depends success

3. Tension between short term (hard) responses + longer term (soft) solutions

4. Counterterrorism vs de-radicalisation

5. How does terrorism end?

Post-Cold War Terrorism (5)

• Global war on terrorism

• How al-Qaida ends

• Do states commit terrorism

  • E.g. countries in LATAM like El salvador criticised for using terror

• Strategic bombing or terror bombing

Global war on terrorism

Change of 9/11 was scale + reaction to attack -> Bush said: “Our war on terror begins w al-Qaida, but will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped, + defeated.”

How al-Qaida ends (2)

1. Terrorism, like war, never ends; however, individual terrorist campaigns + groups that wage them always do

2. Only outcome that is inevitable in current U.S. policy is that mili focused efforts will end, bcs of wasteful/counterproductive effort + eventual exhaustion”

Strategic bombing or terror bombing (10)

1. Churchill argument with IRF for bombing that might have ignited terrorism

2. Giulio Douhet - way to change gov behavior is terrorizing population 

   1. Airpower theorist Italian General Giulio Douhet

   2. Gain control of air + then bomb civilian population centers

   3. Create civilian pressure to end war

   4. Cheaper alternative than trench warfare

3. Pape - Bombing to win

   1. Analysis of attempts to coerce states through use of airpower + bombing civilian population centers shows that it always fails

   2. Argues that it is better to concentrate on using airpower to achieve mili victories

4. Generally speaking this bombing strategy doesn't really work

Insurgency (7)

1. Most important for an insurgent group is not to win but to survive 

2. External support is essential for insurgencies (other states for legitimacy or arms)

   1. E.g. Afghanistan + Taliban -> esp with help of Pakistan 

3. T.E. Larence 

4. Modern Insurgency

5. Decolonization and insurgency

6. Other examples

T.E. Larence (4)

1. Seven Pillars of Wisdom

2. Use of guerrilla tactics -> against Turkish forces 

3. External force -> Money + force from British gov 

4. “The printing press is greatest weapon in the army of modern commander”

Modern Insurgency (5)

1. Maoist insurgency – 3 stages

   1. Stage 1: Strategic Defensive: avoid pitched battles but limited tactical offensives where local superiority can be obtained. Aim is to stretch security forces

   2. Stage 2: Stalemate: Prolonged battle to wear down adversary

   3. Stage 3: Strategic Offensive: End game of conflict in which large insurgent forces overwhelm gov forces + seize control of territory/state

2. Insurgency is “80% political and 20% military”

Decolonization and insurgency (3)

1. France + Algeria

2. Palestine + Israel

3. Dutch - Indonesia 

Other examples (4)

1. Colombia: FARC wage insurgency for decades

2. Cuba: Fidel Castro wages guerrilla war for 3 years; overthrows Batista regime

3. Sri Lanka: Tamil Tigers wage insurgency for decades

4. Bolivia: Che Guevara tries to generate insurgency but fails to generate support – killed by security forces

Counterinsurgency (6)

• Key counterinsurgency texts

• Counterinsurgency tactics

• The Quiet American - Edward G. Landsdale

• Other examples

• Afghanistan

• Jihadist insurgency in Africa

Key counterinsurgency texts (4)

1. Defeating communist insurgency - Thompson

2. Low intensity operations - Kitson

3. Counterinsurgency warfare - Galula 

4. Modern Warfare - Trinquier 

Counterinsurgency tactics (9)

1. Support of population necessary -> Winning hearts + minds of ppl

2. Gov must function in accordance with law

3. Gov must prioritize defeating pol subversion, not guerrillas

4. Legitimacy is key objective

5. Counterinsurgents must prepare for long-term commitment

6. Good coordinating machine between civil + mili agencies

7. Intelligence

8. Minimum use of force

9. External + Internal counterinsurgency: host nation/external power (e.g. US/Coalition + Iraqi Govt)

External and Internal counterinsurgency: host nation/external power (2)

1. Build-up local capacity

2. But can be problematic if local govt disincentivized to throw away crutch

The Quiet American - Edward G. Landsdale

Got local populations to adapt and use psychological warfare in the Philippines

Other examples (3)

1. Algeria - various methods used such as torture 

2. Iraq Insurgency after 2003

   1. Various insurgent groups across country - esp around Sunni Triangle area 

Afghanistan

Insurgency was successful and the US withdrew with the Taliban ruling

Jihadist insurgency in Africa (3)

1. Nigeria Boko Haram

2. Malawi - Islamist Militia 

3. + Others