Unit 8: Complex Decisionmaking Case Studies

Bay of Pigs (1961)

• batista is overthrown in ‘59 in cuba by revolutionaries under castro

• eisenhower gives okay on plot to overthrow

• brigate 2506

  • US territory used to plan military operation against sovereign state without declaration of war

  • lodgement for uprising and revolt against in military against communists

• protected by preemptive strike of B-26 in Guatemala

Bay of Pigs: Bureaucraticus

• untested assumptions, poor management

• bissel and dulles’ deep plan (CIA)

  • insertion of Brigade 2507 followed by US invasion according to plan

• not a sufficient amount of B-26 pilots

• marines on the USS Essex

• likely to fail, too many secrets hadn’t been unraveled

Bay of Pigs: Sociologicus

• hasty rush to consensus

• many decision making mistakes

  • idea that congress would believe it’s a cuban operation

  • assuming US air superiority

  • 1400 US v. 30K Cubans

  • bad morale

Bay of Pigs: Sociologicus Errors

• belief of US invulnerability/ superiority

• illusion of inaminity

• suppress personal doubts

• self-appointed mind-guards

  • may not understand facts but do understand emotions

• docility fostered by Suave Leadership

  • hard to argue against kennedy

• taboo of antagonizing new members

Bay of Pigs: Psychologicus

• cognitive consistency was limited

  • no backup plan

• defensive avoidance: avoiding arguments

• wishful thinking

• analogical reasoning: comparing and assuming it will be fine based off of comparisons

Cuban Missile Crisis: Psychologicus

• cognitive consistency

• analogical reasoning to bay of pis

• prospect theory

• emotional processes, pushing to extreme

Escalating Vietnam

• kennedy’s special forces war

• Tonkin Gulf: limitless campaign in VN

• gradual escalation

• tet offensive

Escalating Vietnam: bureaucraticus

• organizational struggle

• bureaucratic detachment: one part of US government was dis-interested in other branch’s struggles

• Clifford and McNamara: argument over direction of the war

• opponents were juniors except for George Ball

Escalating Vietnam: Sociologicus

• stress on cohesiveness → Johnson’s very agreeable group

• commitment to prior decisions

• conformity

• unanimity

• overlooking risks

Escalating Vietnam: Psychologicus

• value of analogies

• define nature of reasoning

• stakes involved → domino effect

• prescriptions and solutions didn’t stick

• success prediction lacked

• no question of morality

• warnings were ignored by Kennedy

• analogical reasoning

Iran Hostage Crisis (1979)

• westernization in iran

• seizure of US embassy

• Carter’s Try and See approach

• hostage release in 81

Iran Hostage Crisis: bureaucraticus

• where you stand…

• capabilities and frustrations of Dept of Defense → no proper training

• political barometer was failing for President Carter → election year

Iran Hostage Crisis: Sociologicus

• vigilant decision making v. groupthink

• groupthink wins

• Cyprus Vance’s concern that it was mostly focused on Carter’s political future

• Mindguard Stansfield Turner supresses a CIA study

Iran Hostage Crisis: Psychologicus

• personality (Khomeini v. Carter)

• ego defensive traits of Carter

• overplaying “narcissistic, expansionist” personality structure

• poliheuristic and prospect theory

• analogical reasoning: Entebbe, Uganda, etc.

Kosovo (1999)

• Milosevic’s Greater Serbia speech

  • nationalism, dominating Serbia

• Balkan Ghosts, reprised

• Serb and Bosniac struggle

  • US intervenes for Bosniacs

• Albania = republic now

• Albanian Ponzi scheme collapse

  • built fortifications around the country

  • rioting, stormed into armeries

• rise of Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA)

• Serb crackdown on KLA → humanitarian crisis

Kosovo: bureaucraticus

• tough time for Clinton → Monica Lewinsky

• Wesley Clark’s fateful truth telling

• embarrassment over Clinton’s past failures

Kosovo: sociologicus

• groupthink as a result from Racak Massacres

  • decreased albanians

  • mitigated against reconciliation with Serbs of Milosevic

  • enough targets to hurt serbs

Kosovo: psychologicus

• classic misconception issues

• Milosevic thought US wouldn’t/ couldn’t bomb

• US thought Milosevic would back down

Ostensible reasons for Iraq invasion

• Setting off a “big bang”

• pro-democratic chain in the area

• protect US allies and homeland

• punish Saddam Hussein for alleged 9/11 involvement

Invading Iraq: bureaucraticus

• state of Dept. v. Defense

• Battle over OHRA (office of reconstruction and humanitarian assistance)

• neoconservatives who wanted war v. the rest who argued against it

• charges of Richard Clarke and Paul O’Neil

Invading Iraq: sociologicus

• less convincing

• mindguards

• Galbraith’s rage

• Praetorian Guard

Invading Iraq: psychologicus

• impulse DM

• drunkard’s search: image indicating easiest option > correct option

• misperception-induced failure to empathize

  • fundamental attribution error

  • Hussein looking at Iran with fear

  • Iraq pretends to have nuclear weapons to deter Iran

• analogical reasoning

• inability to process psychologically inconvenient info