Lecture 16: Gerrymandering and Voting

Districts vary based on

• Representation level (city council district is different than Congressional district)

• Usually decided by state legislatures, sometimes independent commissions

District lines are based on

• Population size and regularly change

• While states redistrict as a result of census data every 10 years, the federal government must reapportion House of Representatives seats

Gerrymandering

• When district lines are drawn for a political advantage

• Name comes from 1812 Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry who redistricted the state to help himself get elected

Partisan Gerrymandering

Redistricting to benefit your party

Positive racial gerrymander

• Redistricting to empower a minority

• VRA says you have to draw a majority-minority district when possible

Negative racial gerrymander

• Redistricting to disempower a racial minority

• VRA says you cannot dilute minority vote

Cracking

Spreading voters of a particular type among many districts to dilute their power

Packing

Concentrating many voters of a particular type into one single electoral district to reduce their influence elsewhere

Hijacking

Redrawing 2 districts to force 2 incumbents to run against each other in one district, eliminating one

Kidnapping

Moving an incumbent's home address into another district (potentially disadvantaging them in reelection)

Apportionment Act of 1842

• Requires that congressional districts be compact and contiguous

• After district maps are drawn, they are contested in court

• Court either upholds them, throws them out, requires a redraw, mandates a commission, etc.

Heuristics

• An information shortcut that allows for quicker decision making but can lead to bias

• Allows decision makers to draw inferences, to fill in information gaps, and to reduce complexity

Other factors that shape public opinion about politics

• Research

• Culture

• Opinion leaders: influential people and their views

Political ideology

• Set of related beliefs/principles that provide people with coherent philosophies about politics and government

• Should constrain preferences

American consistency on ideology

• Most Americans are not consistent on ideology

• Ideological consistency across issues over time is low

• Most people tend to rely on group identifications, political party identifications, and "us vs. them" thinking

Costs of Voting

• High: have to get informed, register, and deal with election day lines

Turnout Patterns by Demographics By Race and Ethnicity

• White voters have the highest turnout

• Black voters have varying turnout

• Hispanic voters have lower turnout

Turnout Patterns by Demographics By Age

The older you are, the more likely you are to vote

Turnout Patterns by Demographics By Education

The more educated you are, the more likely you are to vote

Paradox of voting

It's rational not to vote: a single vote is not determinative, and many people don't have strong preference for one party over the other

Factors that Encourage Voting

1. Probability of your vote determining the outcome is higher if it's a close election

2. Benefits (real or perceived) for your candidate or party winning if you have a strong preference for them

3. It is the civic duty of a citizen, satisfies peer pressure

The Voting Equation

R = PB - C + D

• R = Reward of voting

• P = Probability of vote being decisive

• B = Individual benefit of candidate winning

• C = Cost of voting

• D = Psychological benefit of voting (duty/satisfaction)