Lecture 11: Population and geopolitics

How does demography (migration, urbanisation etc.) tie into modern political dilemmas?

• Discourse around migration and housing crisis

  • millennials and gen z expressing concerns about finding residency

  • housing crisis redirected from focus on urban planning and social policy to migrants

Geopolitics and demographic processes of interest

• Population size and distribution

  • new global alliances and shift in geopolitical power

• Age transition

  • divergence between more developed (MDC) and less developed (LDC) countries

• International migration

  • brain drain in origin countries

  • social cohesion in destination countries

• Urbanisation and internal migration

World Trade

World Trade is shifting to the Global South

Geopolitical implications for changing population sizes and distribution

• Shift in geopolitical power to the Asia from Europe and the North Atlantic

• New global alliances

  • e.g. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China)

• Gain in the economic weight of East, Southeast and South Asia relative to North Atlantic, as well as Africa

• Decreasing gap in development outcomes between MDCs and LDCs

• Increased demand for resources in LDCs

  • environmental implications

  • double burden of diseases

Geopolitical implications for ageing transition

• Bifurcation into two global demographic categories

  • low growth countries with rapid ageing

    • e.g. Italy 60 million (2020), 39 million (2100); median age 45.8 → 50.8

    • e.g. Japan 126 million (2020), 75 million (2100); median age 46.5 → 51.0

      • experiences intergenerational conflict over policy

  • high growth countries with high fertility and low proportions of older people

    • e.g. India 1.3 billion (2020), 1.5 billion (2100); median age 26.6 → 47.0

    • e.g. Nigeria 206 million (2020), 732 million (2100); median age 17.9 → 32.4

      • youth bulge (young age structure)

      • demographic dividend (transitional age structure)

Intergenerational conflict over public policy in low growth countries with ageing societies

• Divergence in political attitudes between old and young generations

  • support for Brexit (Hobolt 2016; Fox and Pearce 2018)

  • political party preferences (Lichtin et al 2023)

  • electoral turnout (Grasso 2014)

• Life-cycle effects or generation differences? (Van der Brug and Kritzinger 2025)

Youth bulge (countries of concern)

• Measured as the proportion of the adult population aged 15-29

  • Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

• Unemployment is a factor

  • Egypt (42%), Libya (41%), Morocco (40%), Jordon (49%), Syria (45%), Tunisia (37%)

• Countries with a higher percent of young adults were 2.3 times as likely to experience an outbreak of civil conflict as countries with smaller proportions during the 1990s

  • too many young people with not enough to do

The Demographic Dividend

• The demographic dividend is the accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in a country's mortality and fertility and the subsequent change in the age structure of the population

  • window of opportunity for rapid economic growth if the right social and economic policies developed and investments made.

East Asian “economic miracle”

Offers some of recent history’s most compelling evidence of the demographic dividend as it accounts for between one fourth and two-fifths of East Asia’s ‘economic miracle’. These countries absorb and productively employ the extra workers, increased savings rates, human capital and domestic demand.

Age transition implications (summary)

• Intergenerational policy conflict for MDCs

• Potential for conflict associated with the youth bulge in LDCs

• Economic growth for LDCs that can harness the demographic dividend

• Changes in consumption patterns due to population ageing in MDCs (IPAT) or large youthful population

Geopolitical implications of international migration

• The least predictable and most volatile component of demographic change

• Equilibrating mechanism and a response to factors at both origins and destinations

• Composition

  • large proportion of economic migrants

  • constant stream of humanitarian migrants

  • high volume of irregular migration

  • temporary migration

International migration impacts on origin country

• Overall effect may be more nuanced:

  • migration opportunities boosting supply of skilled labor at origin country

  • income from overseas boosting origin country consumption and human capital investment

  • temporary migrants acquiring skills that may be useful to origin country

International migration impacts on destination country

• A large part of population growth in MDCs is accounted for by international migration

• Challenges associated in maintaining social cohesion

  • divergent policy preferences between migrants and non-migrants

  • economic concerns

    • labor market competition (Lancee and Pardos-Prado 2013)

    • infrastructure pressures linked to migration shocks (Moallemi and Melser 2020)

• Cultural concerns (Hangartner et al 2019)

Economic benefits of urbanisation

• Greater availability of production inputs for businesses

• Knowledge spillovers between firms and between employees

• Greater availability and diversity of employment opportunities

Implications of urbanisation

• Major urban centres as focus of political power

• Cities as engines of economic growth or focus of poverty?

• Allocation of fiscal resources in major cities vis-à vis regional/rural areas

• Trends in urbanisation post-COVID?

  • e.g. remote work and counter-urbanisation

Population projections

• Population projection

  • a numerical statement about the future of a population based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and migration

• Population forecast

  • a projection regarded as the most likely population future

• Projection scenario

  • a projection which illustrates the consequences of a certain set of social, economic or environmental assumptions, and which may or may not be plausible

• Variety of projection methods: extrapolative, ratio, cohort-component

  • population projections provide a strong foundation on which to base planning and policy making (housing, infrastructure, services, climate policies, etc.)

Cohort-component method (population projections)

• Takes a base year population disaggregated by age and sex and carries the population forward in time by ageing and applying assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration

  • most widely used at the national and regional level

  • the cohort is a group of people born in a specific interval

• The components:

  • births

  • deaths

  • migration

• The processes:

  • fertility

  • mortality

  • migration

  • ageing

UN world population projection

• Prepared by the United Nations Population Division

  • produced for UN agencies

  • normally produced every 2 years

• 28 revisions since the 1950s

• Projections for all countries and the world prepared for up to 2100

• 5 year age groups 0-4, 5-9, . . . , 95-99, 100+

• Assumptions made about fertility, mortality and migration

  • variants: medium, high, low, constant fertility, instant replacement

• Probabilistic approach to quantify uncertainty

How do demographers set assumptions?

• Historical trends

• Analogous countries

• Theory

Assumptions: fertility (for projection)

• Fertility has the biggest impact on future population

• A transition from high to low values of the TFR followed by fluctuations and a modest recovery

• Future trends are uncertain

• Variants:

  • medium series: assumes a reduction in fertility over time similar to that seen in other countries

  • high +0.5 child

  • low -0.5 child

  • constant fertility

• Probabilistic depiction of future outcomes

Assumptions: mortality (for projection)

• Universal gains in life expectancy at birth

• Takes into account impact of HIV/Aids in impacted countries

Assumptions: migration (for projection)

• Most difficult component to project

• Many countries do not collect information on international migrants

• Highly variable

  • e.g. Syria

• Irregular movement

• Pre-COVID 19 assumptions

  • current trends will remain stable until 2045-2050, then halve by 2100

• First time to produce probabilistic projections of net migration for each country (2024 WPP)

Population projections (key takeaways)

• Global population is expected to decline in 2080s

  • fertility decline in China and in many LDCs with high fertility

• Population growth through 2054 driven primarily by current youthful age structure (especially in LDCs)

• Immigration as driver of population growth in countries with low fertility

• Implications on relevant political and economic issues

  • distribution of geopolitical power?

  • first demographic dividend among LDCs?

  • social cohesion in MDCs?

  • how do other factors climate change, greater usage of AI, geopolitical conflicts, impact demographic and economic/political futures?