United Nations (igo)

UN’s response to climate change

• unfccc

• cop summits

• ipcc

• ar6 synthesis report

UNFCCC

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the UN process for facilitating international cooperation between states, seeking to limit the dangers of climate change.

Parties in the UNFCCC

There are 198 parties: all 193 UN member states; UN General Assembly observers - Palestine and the Holy See; and UN non-member states - Niue
and the Cook Islands; and the regional grouping - European Union.

How are parties classified?

Parties to the UNFCCC are classified by the level of economic development. Industrialised (developed) states and “economies in transition” (EITs) are expected to provide financial and technical assistance to low-income (developing) states. Like minded states group themselves into blocks to represent common perspectives and pursue shared interests on climate change.

COP Summits

The UNFCCC holds a World Leaders Climate Action Summit annually, called the Conference of Parties, or COP. The first conference (COP1) was held in 1995 in Berlin, Germany.

Main interests of COPs

The main interests of the COP explained in Article 2 is: The "stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [human-caused] interference with the climate system".

Significant COPs

• cop 21 - paris

• cop 28 - dubai

• cop 29 - baku

Paris Climate Agreement (2015) - what, who, significance

Adoption of the Paris Agreement:
● Shared target amongst states to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5°C to 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
● 194 state parties signed (+EU = 195 parties)
● Significance: first multilateral agreement on a target to limit global warming.

How does the Paris Agreement work?

• NDCs

• Climate finance

• ETF

NDCs

Nationally Determined Contributions which are targets set by states unilaterally for reductions in greenhouse emissions with autonomy (starting in 2020)

• updated every 5 years

e.g. US 50-52% NDC: reduction of 2005 levels by 2030 (2021, White House)

• Long Term Strategy - 2050 goal/strategy

e.g. US committed to Net Zero by 2050 - Long Term Strategy

Climate Finance

Developed states provide money to less-developed states to address climate impacts (adaptation)
and transition to low-carbon economies (mitigation).

ETF

Enhanced Transparency Framework:

• From 2024, states will report transparently on actions taken and progress.

• ETF is a form of global peer pressure to encourage states to comply

COP 28 - Dubai, United Arab Emirates (2023)

First global “stocktake” (ETF) under the Paris Agreement to track state progress on meeting NDCs:
● Global community is not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C

First COP to explicitly mention the need to transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”

COP 29 - Baku, Azerbaijan (2024)

“Baku Accord” - Deal on climate finance reached:
Developed states agreed to provide $300 billion each year until 2035 to developing states to address climate impacts (adaptation) and transition to low-carbon economies (mitigation).

However, this was heavily criticised by developing states as it does not achieve the $1 trillion needed to combat climate change

IPCC

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.

Who composes the IPCC?

Currently, the IPCC has 195 member states. The Panel is composed of member state representatives and meets in Plenary Sessions to take major decisions. Plenary Sessions take place one or more times per year.

How is the data attained?

Hundreds of scientists from around the world volunteer to assess all available research data and compile this information into Synthesis Reports. These provide the most important information on climate change in an accessible way to policy makers and stakeholders. These are published every 5-7 years.

AR6 Synthesis Report

“This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation.”

What does the report cover?

1. Physical Science of Climate Change (234 scientists)
2. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (270 scientists)
3. Climate Change Mitigation (278 scientists)

How is AR6 useful/important?

• Global Interconnectedness

• Global Governance

• Evidence

AR6 = Global Interconnectedness

The AR6 demonstrates how global interconnectedness, helps facilitate more effective responses to climate change by providing an evidence base for discussion, policy making and the development of international law (e.g. the Paris Agreement).

AR6 = Global Governance

The AR6 is an example of how the UN functions effectively as an institution of global governance. The report provides a foundation for informed discussion and coordinated decision making by states (such as in COPs). This aids in the management of competing interests and perspectives of states, and combat climate denialism/skepticism

Aligns with the UN interests

AR6 = Evidence

The scientific rigour, transparency and reliability of the information published provides the UN with a high degree of legitimacy, and helps to combat climate denialism and skepticism, which continues to undermine global efforts to address the issue effectively.

AR6 - Important Findings/Facts

• Global warming of 1.1°C has already occurred - “This has resulted in more frequent and more intense extreme weather events that have caused increasingly dangerous impacts on nature and people in every region of the world.” (IPCC, 2023):
  ○ Water scarcity and food production
  ○ Health and wellbeing
  ○ Cities, settlements and infrastructure
  ○ Ecosystem structure, species range shift and changes in timing
  ● Global warming is projected to reach 2.5-2.9°C by 2100 under current settings (e.g. member state NDCs).
  ● Almost 50% of the world’s population (3.3-3.6 bn) lives in regions that are highly vulnerable to climate change.
  In the past decade, deaths from floods, droughts and storms were 15 x higher in these regions.
  ● Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected.
  ● Extremes become more widespread and pronounced with every increment of warming (see link).
  ● Limiting global temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C would help us avoid the worst climate impacts.
  ● GHG emissions must be cut by almost half by 2030, if warming is to be limited to 1.5°C

AR6 - Useful/Relevant Quotes

• Antonio Guterres (UN Secretary General) called the IPCC report “a code red for humanity.”

• “Severe climate change impacts are already happening.” (IPCC Chair, 2022)’

• “The pace and scale of what has been done so far, and current plans, are insufficient to tackle climate change.” (IPCC, 2023)

• “Multiple, feasible and effective options are available to reduce GHG emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change.” (IPCC, 2023)

UN’s interest in climate change

The United Nations (UN) sees climate change as a major global challenge that affects peace, security, human rights, and sustainable development. Its interest in tackling climate change comes from the need to prevent environmental disasters, protect vulnerable populations, and promote international cooperation.

Pros / Change of the Paris Agreement

• Facilitating global cooperation: First global agreement (195 state parties) on a target to limit global warming to 1.5°C to 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): State’s set targets for GHG reductions.

• Enhanced Transparency Framework: Reporting mechanisms work as a form of global peer pressure to encourage states to comply.

• Climate Finance: developed states required to provide $ to less-developed states to address mitigation and adaptation.

Cons / Stability of the Paris Agreement

• No enforcement mechanism - cannot punish states that fail to set ambitious NDCs or meet NDCs.

• Relies on state willingness:

  States set their own targets (NDCs).

  States can withdraw (e.g. USAx2)

• Global warming is projected to reach 2.5-2.9°C by 2100 under current settings (e.g. member state NDCs).

Pros / Change of Cop28 Dubai

“Beginning of the end” for fossil fuels

●      First COP to explicitly mention the need to transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems…” to renewables (solar, wind).
“Whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end,” said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell (2023)

●      First Paris Agreement Stocktake:

○      Potential 4°C increase avoided

○      Keeping below 2°C is possible.

○   87% of the global economy is now covered by net zero 2050 targets.

Cons / Stability of Cop28 Dubai

Progress still too slow: Projected global warming range of 2.1-2.8°C - even if all current climate action plans are implemented.

Pros / Change of COP 29 (Baku)

Climate Finance - “Baku Accord”

Increase from $100b to $300b per year until 2035 - From developed states to developing states to address climate impacts (mitigation) and transition to low-carbon economies (adaptation).

Cons / Stability of COP 29 (Baku)

●      Far short of the estimated $1 trillion per year until 2030 requirement (LSE, 2024)

● “$300 billion ‘til 2035 is a joke” (Nikiruka Maduekwe, Nigeria)

Pros of the IPCC - AR6

●      Authoritative evidence base, influencing state negotiations at COPs and state policy (NDCs):

○   GHG emissions must be cut by almost half by 2030, if warming is to be limited to 1.5°C.

●      Combats climate change scepticism / denial.

●      Helps pursue UN Interests: “To achieve international cooperation in solving international problems…”

●      Raises the alarm:

○      Antonio Guterres (UN Secretary General) called the IPCC report “a code red for humanity.”

○      “Severe climate change impacts are already happening.” (IPCC Chair, 2022)

● Supports international law (e.g. the Paris Agreement).

Cons of the IPCC - AR6

●      Demonstrates how even the most alarming science can fall short of changing state behaviour, especially where leaders take climate denial / sceptical perspectives:

○      e.g. US - 2nd largest emitter - withdrawal x2 under Trump (2017 & 2025)

●      Despite the science, states still are not setting or meeting ambitious enough NDCs or Climate Finance agreements:

○      COP 28 (Dubai) first Paris Agreement “stocktake” found progress still too slow: Projected global warming range of 2.1-2.8°C - even if all current climate action plans are implemented.

○   “Baku Accord” of $300b per year far short of the estimated $1 trillion per year until 2030 requirement (LSE, 2024)