Intro to Am Pol - Lecture 14 (Public Opinion and Political Participation)

How can we evaluate public opinion?

1. Measurement challenge

2. Political ignorance challenge

3. Explanatory challenge

Population

The entire group of people you want information about

→ Ex: Americans, Iowans, Republicans, etc.

Sample

A part or subset of the population that is used to make inferences about the population

→ Ex: 10K Americans, 2K Iowans, etc.

Respondents

Individuals who participate in the survey

→ 2K of 10K Americans sampled

Representativeness

Do the aggregate characteristics of the sample closely approximate to the aggregate characteristics of the population?

Basics of Public Opinion Polling

• Random sample

  • Each member of the population has an equal chance of being part of the sample

  • With about 1200 respondents, the margin of error is usually about 3 percentage points

Measurement Challenge 1: Sampling

• A truly random sample is hard to get

  • Phone polls?

    • Those who have landline are part of particular demographic

      • elderly, less tech-savvy, etc.

    • Those w/ cell phones who complete internet surveys are part of particular demographic

      • wealthier, more educated, more knowledgeable, etc.

• Surveys tend to account for these differences by using weights

  • Weighing some respondents’ responses more heavily to make up for small numbers

  • Accuracy of weighting depends on the accuracy of one’s assumptions about the relationship b/t respondents and the population at large

Measurement Challenge 2: Question Wording and Sequencing

• Survey questions are intended to elicit accurate answers about what respondents believe

• But the answers received depend on how you ask the questions and the order in which they are presented

  • Framing

    • Phrasing a question in such a way as to give greater weight to one point of view

  • Priming

    • Sequence of questions or prelude to a question may lead a respondent to reach for an answer more quickly than they would IRL

The Priming Problem: 2 Examples

• Example 1

  • Stage 1: Show respondent “informational article”

  • Stage 2: Ask the respondent whether the current administration is respecting the rule of law

• Example 2

  • Stage 1: Ask the respondent question about consumer sentiment (“how satisfied are you with this?”

  • Stage 2: Ask the respondent aimed at identifying the respondent’s priorities

Measurement Challenge 3: Can we even trust respondents to tell us the truth?

• Social desirability bias

  • People tell you what they think you want to hear (Bradley Effect)

• “Cognitive misers”

  • Many people make do with little information

  • They say what comes to mind → opinions are fleeting + unstable

• Recency Bias

  • Respondents are likely to vote based on current events related to the issue at bar

  • Ex: A recent school shooting in a respondent’s neighborhood is likely to influence their opinion regarding gun laws (reactionary as opposed to stable)

Attitude

An organized + consistent manner of thinking/feeling/reacting to a group of people, social issue, or other event in one’s political environment

Ideology

An elaborate set of organized, internally consistent attitudes linked by a common principle (or coalitional politics)

What is the Attitude-Ideology disconnect?

• Our partisan identities shape how we acquire + recall information

• Informational biases may be a function of selecting into certain news sources OR confirmation bias (we remember what fits our priorities)

• By altering how we acquire and process new information, partisanship can bias how we form new attitudes and opinions

Where do we get attitudes/opinions?

• Opinions can emerge as a result of current news happenings

  • When the news chatter dies down, opinion may revert to earlier levels

• Public opinion can also be shaped by elites (politicians, media personalities, and perceived “experts”

What are two ways in which we interpret public opinion?

1. Public opinion is disorganized and virtually meaningless

2. Public opinion is organized and well-structured

What evidence supports the thesis that public opinion is disorganized + virtually meaningless?

• People are incapable of knowing everything

• When pressed to give an opinion, most respondents are ambivalent

• Public opinion swings wildly + without logic

What is the concept of ideological innocence?

• Unlike elites, the American voter is “triply lacking”

  • Limited reference to ideology

  • Inconsistency b/t opinions

  • Positions on issues are unstable

• Most people’s opinions are “unconstrained”

  • Opinions are not tied together by general/ideological principles

  • Attitudes not correlated in expected ways

  • Liberal on some issues, conservative on others

What evidence supports the thesis that public opinion is organized and well-structured?

• Academics overstate the value of political knowledge

  • The way we assess political knowledge is flawed

  • Most of the time, voters can rely on heuristics/proxies to make choices that approximate the decisions they would have made with more information + knowledge

    • Why?

      • Vote choices often limited to two candidates or

      • Voting often limited to yes/no on a particular issue

Is the public wise in the aggregate?

• Individuals may be ignorant or lack necessary knowledge to make informed political decisions

• Is the public just wise about salient things like war or what to name their kid (based on presidential scandal or lack thereof? Or do they know about what happens in between to contextualize those things?