Decision making

decision making

the process of choosing or selecting any one of several options, with the aim of achieving an objective or solving a problem

ventrolateral preforntal cortex

plays an important role in achieving the motivational balance and social sensitivity that is key to making successful judgements

probablistic judgement

the process by which people reason about probabilities as they collect relevant evidence to make decisions

prescriptive models

models of probabilistic judgement that specify how people ought to behave to be considered rational/logical

descriptive models

models of probabilistic judgement that states how people actually behave

Bayes’ Theory

a mathematical formula for determining conditional probability

Bayes’ Theory

theory of probabilistic judgement that is a prescriptive model offering an account for how people should resaon about probabilities, as they collect relevant evidence about making a certain decision

conditional probability

the likelihood of an outcome occuring based on a previous outcome having occured in similar circumstances

Bayes’ Theory

provides a way to revise existing predictions or theories (update probabilities) given new or additional evidence

base-rate neglect

people seem to attend to new information, but neglect old, yet relevant, prior probabilities

framing effects

when there is no clear basis for making a decision, people are influenced by the way in which the prooblem is presented

framing effects

we may make a decision not on the basis of which decision is actually the best one, but on teh basis of which will be easiest to justify