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Critical Thinking 批判性思维
Using evidence to evaluate whether an idea is supported
使用证据来评估一个观点是否得到支持
Cognitive Biases 认知偏差
1. Hindsight Bias 事后偏见 (I knew it)
2. Overconfidence 过度自信 (definitely right!)
3. Perceiving 寻找 order in random events (Pattern)
Hindsight Bias 事后偏见
The tendency to believe, after an event has happened, that you knew it would happen
一种倾向,即在事件发生之后,认为自己早就知道它会发生
Hindsight Bias 事后偏见
Common sense describes the past better than it predicts the future
常识对过去的解释比对未来的预测更好
Hindsight Bias 事后偏见
Example:
你和朋友考试前都觉得这次考试会很难。考试结束后发现很简单,你说:
“I knew the test was going to be easy!”
“我早就知道这次考试会很简单!”
Overconfidence 过度自信
The tendency to be more confident in our judgments than we should be
一种倾向,即我们对自己的判断过于自信
Overconfidence 过度自信
We humans tend to think we know more than we do
我们人类往往认为自己知道的比实际知道的更多
Overconfidence 过度自信
High confidence does not necessarily mean high accuracy
高度自信并不一定意味着高度准确
Overconfidence 过度自信
Example:
老师问:“这道题的答案是什么?”
你非常确定地说:
“I’m 100% sure it’s B.”
结果答案是 D
Perceiving order in random events
在随机事件中寻找秩序
The tendency to see patterns in random or meaningless events
一种倾向,即在随机或没有意义的事件中看到模式
Perceiving order in random events
在随机事件中寻找秩序
We’re born with an eagerness to make sense of our world, see patterns where none exist
我们天生就渴望理解我们的世界, 在不存在模式的地方看到模式
Perceiving order in random events
在随机事件中寻找秩序
Example:
你连续三天穿同一件衣服,三天考试成绩都很好,于是你认为:
“This shirt brings me good luck!”
“这件衣服会给我带来好运!”
Scientific Method
A self-correcting process for evaluating ideas with observation and analysis
一种通过观察和分析来评估观点的自我纠正过程
Peer reviewers 同行评审家
scientific experts who evaluate a research article’s theory, originality 原创性, and accuracy
评估研究文章的理论、原创性和准确性的科学专家
Theory
an explanation using an integrated 互相联系 set of principles 原则 that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events.
一种使用一套相互联系的原则来组织观察结果,并预测行为或事件的解释
Hypotheses
a testable 可被检测的 prediction, often implied 推导 by a theory.
一个可以被检测的预测,通常由理论推导出来
Falsifiable 可证伪的
the possibility that an idea, hypothesis, or theory can be disproven by observation or experiment.
一个观点、假设或理论可以通过观察或实验被证明是错误的可能性
Operational Definitions 操作性定义
A carefully worded statement of the exact procedures used in a research study.
对研究中所使用的确切程序进行仔细措辞的陈述
Replication 重复验证
Repeating the essence 核心内容 of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding can be reproduced
重复研究的核心内容,通常使用不同的参与者和不同的情境,以观察基本研究结果是否能够被重复得到
Non-experimental Methods (Descriptive Research)
assess 评估 associations 关联 among different factors
评估不同因素之间的关联
Non-experimental Methods (Descriptive Research)
1. Case Studies 个案研究
2. Naturalistic observations 自然观察
3. Surveys and interviews
Case Studies 个案研究
one individual or group is studied in depth 深入的 in the hope of revealing 发现 universal 普遍性 principles 原则
深入研究一个个人或群体,希望发现普遍性的原则
Case Studies 个案研究
Strength 优点:Provides rich, detailed information.
提供丰富、详细的信息
Limitation 局限: One person may not represent everyone.
一个人可能无法代表所有人
Naturalistic observations 自然观察
observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation
在自然发生的情境中观察并记录行为,而不试图操纵和控制情境