CON RES QUIZ 2

Licklider's Theory

Civil war outcomes depend on internal and external factors.

Walter's Peace Maintenance

Mutual confidence in disarmament is crucial post-settlement.

Government Advantage

Governments can rearm, deterring rebel disarmament acceptance.

IRA Disarmament Resistance

Fear of Loyalist rearmament led to IRA's hesitance.

Regan's Intervention Findings

Outside interventions can prolong conflicts, not shorten them.

Conflict Duration Increase

Interventions alter conflict costs, extending war duration.

Rebel Force Growth

Increases in rebel forces accelerate war progression.

Ethnic Fractionalization

Eases rebel mobilization, prolonging conflict duration.

Ethnic vs Ideological Conflicts

Ethnically based conflicts last longer than ideological ones.

Poverty Reduction Interventions

Can hinder rebel mobilization, potentially shortening wars.

Ethnic Discrimination

Fractionalization arises from discrimination, not just diversity.

Post-Cold War Conflict Management

Internal conflict management gained importance after the Cold War.

UN Peacekeeping Operations

Significant increase in peacekeeping since the Cold War.

Bennet and Stam's Model

Realpolitik and strategy affect expected conflict duration.

Duration Model

Balance of capabilities predicts conflict end time.

Democracy and Repression

Political factors influence conflict duration expectations.

Duration Dependency Hypothesis

Past war duration does not predict future duration.

Regan and Stam's Focus

Conflict management efforts predict expected war durations.

Diplomatic Efforts Timing

Intensity and timing affect war-ending probabilities.

Nonlinear Relationship

Third-party mediation effectiveness varies with timing.

Collier et al.'s Findings

Ethnic fractionalization's effect on war duration is nonlinear.

Homogeneous Societies

Can divide opposition loyalties, leading to shorter wars.

Identity Wars

Ethnic conflicts last longer than ideological conflicts.

Balance of Forces

Imbalances prolong wars; balance leads to shorter conflicts.

Intervention Strategies

Aim to control hostilities, not exacerbate them.

Government Support Interventions

Restore pre-conflict status quo; oppose rebel movements.

Creating Ripe Moments

Interventions manipulate costs to favor negotiations.

Victory Probability

Interventions influence expected payoffs of continuing vs. settling.

Government-supported intervention

Reduces likelihood of opposition victory in conflicts.

Balanced interventions

May cause rebels to misjudge conflict duration.

Early interventions

Influence opposition during vulnerable conflict stages.

Unilateral intervention

Support for one side, affecting conflict duration.

Counter interventions

Opposing actions that prolong conflict duration.

Ethnolinguistic fractionalization

Diversity linked to conflict duration, influenced by resources.

Multilateral interventions

Neutral actions that can shorten conflicts through resource distribution.

Conflict resolution probability

Decreases over time, stabilizing after several years.

Fatalities per month

Higher rates increase likelihood of conflict resolution.

Positive duration dependence

Longer conflicts tend to end sooner eventually.

Military interventions

Affect capabilities but ignore root conflict causes.

Neutral interventions

Often ineffective, failing to persuade parties to cease fighting.

Conflict end criteria

Hostilities must cease for at least 6 months.

Intervention timing

Does not significantly affect conflict duration.

Military support hazard

Decreases conflict ending likelihood by a factor of 106.

Recruitment capabilities reduction

Decreases rebel victory probability in conflicts.

Forecasting errors

Rebels miscalculate conflict duration due to interventions.

Civil conflicts wear out

Opposing factions exhaust each other over time.

Intervention by international organizations

Often resembles unilateral interventions, lacking true neutrality.

Conflict survival probability

60% chance of continuation after 48 months.

Fatalities impact

Total fatalities do not affect conflict ending likelihood.

Biased interventions

More likely to end conflicts than neutral ones.

Late interventions

Increase likelihood of conflict ending by 2% next month.

Conflict duration hypotheses

H1, H2, H3 not supported; H4 supported.

Impartiality

Neutral stance in conflict resolution efforts.

Multilateralism

Involvement of multiple countries in interventions.

Civil Conflict

Internal disputes within a country affecting governance.

Intervention Effectiveness

Success of actions taken to resolve conflicts.

Conflict Duration

Length of time a conflict persists.

Timely Use of Force

Immediate military action intended to resolve conflict.

Neutral Interventions

Non-partisan actions aimed at conflict resolution.

Political Sanctions

Restrictions imposed to influence a state's behavior.

Economic Sanctions

Financial penalties to compel compliance or change.

Travel Bans

Prohibitions on officials traveling internationally.

Fact-Finding Missions

Investigative efforts to gather information on conflicts.

Deployment of Peacekeepers

Sending troops to maintain peace in conflict zones.

Third-Party Intervention

External actions aimed at resolving conflicts.

Agenda-Setting

Establishing priorities for negotiation processes.

Face-Saving

Strategies allowing parties to maintain dignity in negotiations.

Distributive Bargaining

Negotiation over fixed resources or territory.

Integrative Bargaining

Negotiation seeking mutually beneficial solutions.

Low-Level Interventions

Minimal actions like discussions or inquiries.

Mid-Level Interventions

Moderate actions including mediation and conciliation.

High-Level Interventions

Significant actions like military involvement or sanctions.

UN's Primary Goal

Maintain international peace and security.

Crisis Termination

Ending conflicts through negotiation and intervention.

Oran Young's Definition

Non-direct party actions to facilitate crisis resolution.

Interveners

Actors aiming to alter conflict duration.

Conflict Management

Using interventions to manage or resolve conflicts.

Third-Party Intervention

External involvement in a conflict to influence outcomes.

Positive Correlation

Higher violence increases likelihood of intervention.

Cold War Superpowers

Managed client states to prevent global crises.

UN Interventions

Increased significantly post-Cold War.

Territorial Disputes

Most likely to escalate into full-scale wars.

Crisis Escalation

Threats to values increase conflict intensity.

Ethnic Group Support

Third-party backing can escalate conflicts.

Multinational Coalitions

Groups of states intervening together in conflicts.

Proxy Warfare

Indirect conflict through local actors; avoided by superpowers.

Conflict Phases

Stages include beginning, escalation, de-escalation, abatement.

Biased Interventions

Favoring one side to resolve conflicts faster.

Traditional Alliances

Interventions based on military or political ties.

Ethnic Ties

Interventions based on shared ethnic backgrounds.

Chapter VII Mandate

UN authority to manage interstate wars.

Success Evaluation

Determined by mission goals and lives saved.

Humanitarian Crises

Interventions due to human rights violations.

UNSC Resolution 688

Popularized humanitarian interventions post-Gulf War.

Coalitions of the Willing

UN-authorized interventions executed by willing states.

UN Effectiveness

Reduced by neutrality and lack of military strength.

Successful Intervention Criteria

No conflict reignition within ten years.

Intrastate Conflict

Conflict within a state's boundaries involving government.

Ethno-Political Conflicts

Groups assert claims based on communal identity.

Military Force

Primary intervention tool in peacekeeping missions.