CSP - lecture 3

Catalysts

Factors that affect the intensity and duration of the conflict (internal/external).

Violent collective action

• Underlying causes

• Capacity to mobilise

• Triggers and catalysts

Proxy warfare

A situation where two or more opposing powers use third-party actors to fight on their behalf instead of engaging in direct conflict.

Civil war

An armed conflict that takes place between different groups within the same country or state.

Important causes of civil war (Ramsbotham book)

• Greed vs. grievance

• Ethnic and religious divisions

• Weak or failed states

• Exclusion and marginalisation

• Historical grievances

Insurgency

A type of armed conflict in which a group or groups attempt to overthrow a government or establish authority, often using guerrilla tactics and relying on support from local populations.

Guerrilla tactics

The of use surprise attacks, ambushes, and sabotage to weaken a stronger enemy while blending in with locals.

Types of insurgencies

• Integrated groups

• Vanguard groups

• Parochial groups

• Fragmented groups

Integrated groups (types of insurgencies)

Have a well-institutionalised central command and control over local units. These tend to be the most militarily effective groups, able to carefully coordinate strategy and keep fighting even in difficult situations.

Vanguard groups (types of insurgencies)

Have a strong central command but weak local control. Local units defy or ignore the central leadership. They are the most likely to change, either by being wiped out through leadership decapitation or becoming integrated by building local alliances with local communities.

Parochial groups (types of insurgencies)

Are made up of powerful local factions that lack a powerful, unified central command. They resemble militarised coalitions, even if under a common organisational umbrella.

Fragmented groups (types of insurgencies)

Lack central cohesion or local control and tend to be quickly marginalised.

Iran, 1979 (example of vanguard groups)

The Iranian Revolution was led by a relatively centralised movement with strong leadership, particularly under Ayatollah Khomeini. While multiple factions participated, the revolution was primarily guided by a vanguard group that shaped its direction.

Syria, 2011 (example of fragmented groups)

The Syrian Civil War saw many opposition groups with different ideologies, agendas, and external backers. The rebellion lacked a unified leadership, making it an insurgency with competing factions.