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PMI - Purchasing Managers Index
An indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing/services sector within a country.
Under 50 on the PMI scale or low PMI
Contraction - we are declining
Over 50 on the PMI scale or high
Expansion - we're growing
Boom-Bust Cycle
A cycle we go in where ecnomic growth occurs and good things happen, followed by decline where bad things happen in the economy
What is PPI?
Producer Price Index (measures pricing in production costs)
Why is PPI Important?
It shows how much producers are paying for goods, and it can be used to predict CPI & PCE news (inflation news)
How does a higher PPI affect BTC?
It can cause some volatility in the market when it's released
How does CPI affect BTC
It can cause stronger volatiliy when released
What time does CPI, PPI, PCE, and other news come out?
8:30 AM - 10:00 AM on its respective date
What is CPI?
Consumer Price Index - Measures how much a consumer is paying for goods
What does a higher CPI mean?
Inflation is rising, bearish BTC at release
What does a lower CPI mean?
Inflation is lowering, bullish BTC at release
What is a good comparison for BTC?
Nasdaq
What is ISM and how does it affect BTC?
Measures production data of manufacturers
What is the daily trend and why is it important?
Shows if the market is bullish or bearish, and shows which way you should be looking (trend is your friend)
When are high impact news days (via ChatGPT)
The first week and mid-month
What does a no news day mean on high impact news weeks?
lower volume and volatiliy / consolidation days
What do news days mean on high impact news weeks?
Higher volatility and more volume
What is TJR's rule about trading on high impact news days?
No trading until after news comes out, see what the market does first
Asian Open & Close / London Open and Close / NY Open and Close
Asian - 6 PM / 3 AM
London - 2 AM / 11 AM
NY - 7 AM / 4 PM
Consolodation
The market just moving sideways with no intent of going bullish or bearish
Break of Structure (BOS)
A candle closing above a previous high or low
LTF / HTF
Low time frame / high time frame
LTF Times & HTF Times
1m/5m/15m & 1Hr/4Hr/1D
What is a reversal
When the trend flips the other way
A pullback
When the trend flips briefly and goes back moving in its normal direction
ltf reversal
a reversal on the 1m/5min/15min time frame
htf reversal
a reversal on the 1hr/4hr/1d time frame
Confluence
A confirming factor of your theory
Multiple confluences (ex: 3 confluences)
Multiple factos in your theory are lining up
HTF liquidity
obvious highs and lows on the 1hr/4hr/1d
LTF liquidity
obvious highs and lows on the 1min/5min/15min
What is liquidity
pending orders above or below highs and lows
What is a liquidity sweep
whe price wicks to the high or low to stop out orders and grab the liquidty to move in the other direction
Buy side liquidity
pending orders above highs
Sell side liquidity
pending orders below lows
What do equal highs signal?
High buy side liquidity
What do equal lows signal?
High sell side liquidity
What do previous day highs and lows signal?
Strong liquidity in those areas
Internal Liquidity
Highs and Lows on the 1min chart when my bias comes from the 5 min and 15 min
Internal Buy side liquidity
liquidity highs on the 1 min chart when my bias comes from the 5 min and 15 min
Internal Sell Side liquidity
Liquidity lows on the 1 min chart when my bias comes from the 5 min and 15 min
Internal Liquidity sweep
liquidity sweep on the 1 min chart when my bias comes from the 5 min and 15 min
Buy side liquidity sweep
When there's a liquidity sweep aboev market buys
Sell side liquidity sweep
when there's a liqudity sweep below market lows
Price Action
Chart movement
High price action
Candles are moving faster before closing
Low price action
Candles are moving slower before closing
Previous session highs and lows
The highs and lows in the session before yours (London session would be previous sesion if you're trading in NY)
What is the order of sessions starting with NY
NY, Asia, London, repeat
Equal Highs / Equal lows
Multiple wicks or closed candles at the same mkt cap
What do equal highs and lows show?
Shows there's still liquidity sitting in that area
Draw on liquidty
Price is moving towards liquidity
What can show a draw on liquidity?
Equal highs or lows,
Bullish closure
a bullish cancle is closing near or at the high
Bearish closure
a bearish candle is closing near or at the low
Doji Candle
A candle with a small body and big wicks
Drake candle
A candle with a big wick
What does it mean when tjr says "Price is printing"
Price is pushing heavily in one direction
HTF Bias
The bias on the 1hr/4hr/1d
Intra Day
trading on the low time frames
Backtesting
Using your strat on the rewind setting to see if it works
What is risk management?
Setting responisble posotion sizes, stop losses, and daily loss limits
Why is risk management important?
it keeps you composed and allows you to make good decisions and relax before trading and while in a trade
What is a discoutnt?
Looking for a cheaper entry for more profit
What is a buy-now?
Aping into the play when you get your edge without waiting for a discount
When is a good time to take discount?
When price is moving towards a known support area
When is it a good time to take a buy now?
When you don't see an opportunity for a discoun
What does fractile mean?
A distinct htf move will impact ltf moves
The Power of 3 Concept
We are always either in accumulatiom, manipulatioon, or distribution
Accumulation
Smart money gaining capital to go in a direction
What does accumulation signal?
Smart money is buying in the accumulation phase and preparing to send it somwhere
What is manipulation?
A fake move where smart money grabs buy side liquidity or sell side liquidity and goes in the other direction
How can I verify manipulation?
If price touches buy side liquidity or sell side liquidity and goes in the opposite direction
What is a stop hunt?
When price closes at bsl or ssl liquidity and goes in the opposite direction
Is a stop hunt a form of manipulation?
Yes
What is a good way to verify manipulation and why do these show manipulation?
Look for manipulation on htf (ex: fvg, ob, bos) It's showing manipulation because price is fractile
What is distribution?
Smart money taknig its orders after accumulating through accumulation and manipulation
What is displacement?
Smart money making obvious moves such as a lq sweep on low ssl and going long
What is continuation
The market continuing in its current trend
fvg
a set of 3 candles where the wicks from the top and bottom candles create a gap
how do i know if a fvg is bullish or bearish
if the middle candle is bullish or bearish
what validates a bullish fvg (when is it being respected)
when candles close below the fvg and price goes down
what happens when a bullish fvg is respected
price moves down
is a fvg valid if it's not respected?
no. no. no. no
ifvg
a fvg that gets disrespected in the current trend and shows a change of trend
what is trend / order flow
the direction of the chart. bullish or bearish
why are fvg and ifvg important
it's a powerful confluence that shows if the trend is in continuation or reversal
how do i indetify BOS?
a closed candle above or below luqidity highs or lows
What's your next step after seeing a BOS
Look for a continuation or a reversal
what time frames do fvg and ifvg happen on?
every single time frame
what words should ALWAYS be connected to "fvg" or"ifvg" to help identify the trend
Bullish or bearish. Ex - bullish fvg / bearish fvg / bullish ivg / bearish ifvg
What is an order block?
The candle or candles that come before a BOS
How many candles can an order block be?
however many candles are consistently going in the direction prior to the BOS
what term do you add to OB's?
bullish / bearish
Imagine this: 2 candles down, 2 candles up, and a reversal to the down side
Which candle(s) is the order block
the last 2 candles up
What does a daily fvg show?
There could be manipulation on the ltf
what shows an OB being respected or disrespected? (EXCEPT AN SMT DIVERGENCE)
If price wicks or closes below OB = disrespected
If price wicks or closes above an OB = respected
what shows a BB being respected or disrespected? (EXCEPT AN SMT DIVERGENCE)
If price wicks or closes above a BB = disrespected
If price wicks or closes below the BB = respected
Which is a stronger validation a wick or a closed candle? Are wicks still valid?
Closed candles are stronger but wicks still show info.