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Risk analysis definition
Multidisciplinary public health field involving risk assessment, communication, and management to define health risks from biologic, chemical, thermal, or mechanical hazards
Four components of risk assessment
Hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, risk characterization
Hazard definition
Any agent (biologic, chemical, thermal, mechanical, psychosocial) with potential to cause harm — cannot cause harm without human interaction
Hazard identification
Determines whether an agent actually causes adverse effects on biologic tissue using laboratory and field studies
Dose-response assessment
Determines the relationship between amount of hazard at target tissues/organs and levels of response (illness, mortality, fitness, body weight)
LD₅₀ vs ED₅₀
LD₅₀ is the lethal dose causing mortality in 50% of subjects; ED₅₀ is the exposure dose causing illness in 50% of subjects
Confidence band in dose-response curves
Indicates precision/reliability of estimates — widest at very low and very high doses, where accuracy is most compromised
Limitations of animal-to-human generalizability
Differences in dose delivery method, posture, similarity of animal to human system, and human heterogeneity of response
Heterogeneity of response
Variation in human biologic response to uniform exposure due to age, sex, body mass, disease status, and hydration status
Exposure assessment
Determines the level of a hazard experienced by a population; accounts for source of exposure, level of exposure, and how it is absorbed by the body
Key shift in exposure assessment methods
From self-reported assessments to objective monitors (air monitors, physical activity monitors, biomarkers like urinary cotinine and blood alcohol)
Risk characterization
Final step of risk assessment; involves one or more estimates of the association between a given exposure and likelihood of a disease outcome
Forms of risk estimates (least to most valid)
Correlation coefficient (least valid), regression estimate, simple proportion, relative risk — always accompanied by confidence intervals or bands
Risk communication definition
Quantifying and characterizing the likelihood that a hazard will cause harm in terms meaningful to the public
Micromort
A 1
Highest daily risk of death by micromort
Car crash and police duty accumulate a 1
Key factors in public risk perception
Choice and control — people tolerate risks they choose (driving) but fear risks they cannot control (flying), even when statistically safer
Health communication definition
Use of communication strategies to inform and influence individual and community decisions that promote health and prevent disease
Health literacy definition
How well individuals understand health communication messages in order to make appropriate health decisions
Three types of health literacy (2003 National Assessment)
Clinical type (patient-provider interaction), prevention type (maintaining health behaviors), navigation type (understanding healthcare system/insurance)
Additional health literacy components
Numeracy (working with numbers), computer/e-health literacy (accessing health info online), media literacy (critically analyzing media health messages)
Three public health uses of health communication
Prevention, risk communication, and crisis communication (e.g., disease outbreaks, natural disasters)
Social/health marketing definition
CDC-developed customer-centered, science-based approach to developing and implementing health campaigns for targeted audiences
Communication strategy
A planned document expressing the components needed for an effective campaign — includes target audiences, channels, key images, intended actions, and audience benefits
Risk management definition
Strategies taken to eliminate risks or lower them to acceptable levels, often determined by a government agency with scientific and public input
Six examples of risk management
Making recommendations, regulatory development, licensing laws, standard setting, control measures, monitoring and surveillance
Statistical threshold for "TRUE" risk in public health science
P-value below 0.05 with statistical power of beta ≥ 0.80
Tension in risk management decision-making
Must balance sound science (requiring statistical significance) with timely public health practice (requiring decisions with limited evidence)
Cost-benefit considerations in risk management
Must weigh scientific data, resource availability, and social/political/economic consequences of taking or not taking action
Why conduct risk analysis
To determine health and disease effects from different exposures, compare new vs. existing technologies, set risk management priorities, and build public consensus on safety