voting behaviour
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class 1964-66
In 1964–66
* 64% of working class or manual voter voted Labour,
* 62% of middle-class or non-manual voters voted Conservative
* 64% of working class or manual voter voted Labour,
* 62% of middle-class or non-manual voters voted Conservative
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class 1979
* By 1979, just 51% of all voters supported their ‘natural’ class party,
* 1987 this had fallen to 44%.
* 1987 this had fallen to 44%.
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class 2010
* The 2010 General Election only 38% of electors being ‘class voters’.
* In 2015, this rose, but only to 40%.
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* In 2015, this rose, but only to 40%.
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2017 class
In 2017 the Conservatives performed equally well among ABC1 voters and C2DE voters (44%),marginally better than Labour in both cases.
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2019 class
In 2019 the Conservatives comfortably outperformed Labour across all social grades. They actually did better among C2DE voters (48%) than they did among ABC1 voters (43%). Labour performed the same among both social grade groups (33%)
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age 2015
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2015
* Younger women were 16.5% points more supportive of Labour than young men
* young men were 14.5% points more supportive of the Conservatives than young women.
* older women were 12% points more supportive of the Conservatives than older men
* but older men were more than twice as likely to vote for UKIP than older women.
2015
* Younger women were 16.5% points more supportive of Labour than young men
* young men were 14.5% points more supportive of the Conservatives than young women.
* older women were 12% points more supportive of the Conservatives than older men
* but older men were more than twice as likely to vote for UKIP than older women.
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2019 age
In 2019 there was a gender gap, but only among the young. The data points towards a very small gender gap, with the Conservatives on 46% among men and 44% among women, and Labour on 31% among men and 35% among women.
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Brexit age
2016 EU referendum
* support for Remain fell consistently with age while support for Leave rose.
* 73% of 18–24 voters backed Remain
* 60% of 65+ voters favoured Leave
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* support for Remain fell consistently with age while support for Leave rose.
* 73% of 18–24 voters backed Remain
* 60% of 65+ voters favoured Leave
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2017 age
2017 election
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* Labour had a 47% lead over the Conservatives among 18–19-year-old voters
* Conservatives had a 50% lead among 70+ voters
* 69% of over 70s voted Conservative
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* Labour had a 47% lead over the Conservatives among 18–19-year-old voters
* Conservatives had a 50% lead among 70+ voters
* 69% of over 70s voted Conservative
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2019 age
2019
.YouGov estimates that
* the chance of someone voting Conservative in 2019 increased by around 9 points with every 10 years of age
* for every 10 years older a person is, the likelihood they voted Labour decreases by 8 points
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* Conservatives had a 47-point lead amongst voters aged 65 and above.
* Meanwhile, Labour had a 43-point lead amongst voters aged 18-24 and a 24-point lead amongst voters aged 25-34.
.YouGov estimates that
* the chance of someone voting Conservative in 2019 increased by around 9 points with every 10 years of age
* for every 10 years older a person is, the likelihood they voted Labour decreases by 8 points
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* Conservatives had a 47-point lead amongst voters aged 65 and above.
* Meanwhile, Labour had a 43-point lead amongst voters aged 18-24 and a 24-point lead amongst voters aged 25-34.
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race 2015
2015
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* Labour had a lead of 42% over the Conservatives among voters with a Black African or Caribbean heritage, and an 18% lead among voters with a South Asian heritage
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* Labour had a lead of 42% over the Conservatives among voters with a Black African or Caribbean heritage, and an 18% lead among voters with a South Asian heritage
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2017 race
2017:
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* an estimated 65 percent of ethnic minority voters opted for Labour
* had an effect on key marginals like Croydon Central, where 38 per cent of the electorate are from an ethnic minority background.
* Kensington, which had never before been Labour, turned red and is home to a 32 per cent minority electorate.
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* an estimated 65 percent of ethnic minority voters opted for Labour
* had an effect on key marginals like Croydon Central, where 38 per cent of the electorate are from an ethnic minority background.
* Kensington, which had never before been Labour, turned red and is home to a 32 per cent minority electorate.
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Brexit race
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* with 53 percent of white voters wanting to leave
* 73 percent of black people voting to remain
* with 53 percent of white voters wanting to leave
* 73 percent of black people voting to remain
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2019 race
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2019
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* Labour won the votes of 64% of all Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) voters, while 20% voted for the Conservatives and 12% for the Lib Dems.
* 1 in 5 Labour votes came from ethnic minority voters, whereas only 1 in 20 was for the Conservatives.
2019
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* Labour won the votes of 64% of all Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) voters, while 20% voted for the Conservatives and 12% for the Lib Dems.
* 1 in 5 Labour votes came from ethnic minority voters, whereas only 1 in 20 was for the Conservatives.
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region 1980s
1980s
* Outside London, Labour held only a handful of seats south of a line from the Bristol Channel to the Wash, while Conservative support declined in the north of Englandand, for a period, the Party held no seats in either Scotland or Wales.
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However, since the Blair era Labour began to do well in the South too
* Outside London, Labour held only a handful of seats south of a line from the Bristol Channel to the Wash, while Conservative support declined in the north of Englandand, for a period, the Party held no seats in either Scotland or Wales.
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However, since the Blair era Labour began to do well in the South too
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region 2017
2017
* swing to Labour in London and the south (perhaps because these were Remain areas) as well as smaller swings in Wales, the North West and East
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* swing to Labour in London and the south (perhaps because these were Remain areas) as well as smaller swings in Wales, the North West and East
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2019 region
2019
* Conservatives polled consistently well across England and most of Wales
* Labour’s strength was concentrated in London and areas around cities in South Wales, the North East and North West
* At 32%, Labour’s share of the vote was down around 8% on the 2017 General Election
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Red Wall : safe Labour constituencies across the Midlands and the north of England fell to the Conservatives.
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The Conservatives’ breaching of Labour’s ‘red wall’ was the headline of the election.
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The ‘red wall’ stretches from the borders of north Wales to northeast England and Yorkshire, and down into the north Midlands. The Conservatives won 33 of the 63 seats in this area, with Blyth Valley electing a Conservative for the frst time in its 69-year history.
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* Conservatives polled consistently well across England and most of Wales
* Labour’s strength was concentrated in London and areas around cities in South Wales, the North East and North West
* At 32%, Labour’s share of the vote was down around 8% on the 2017 General Election
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Red Wall : safe Labour constituencies across the Midlands and the north of England fell to the Conservatives.
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The Conservatives’ breaching of Labour’s ‘red wall’ was the headline of the election.
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The ‘red wall’ stretches from the borders of north Wales to northeast England and Yorkshire, and down into the north Midlands. The Conservatives won 33 of the 63 seats in this area, with Blyth Valley electing a Conservative for the frst time in its 69-year history.
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electoral volatility
* A study by the British Electoral Society showed that nearly half the country (49%) voted for different parties across the three elections from 2010 to 2017.
* In 2015, 43% of them voted for a different party from the one they had supported in 2010.
* In 2017, 33% switched from their 2015 vote
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* In 2015, 43% of them voted for a different party from the one they had supported in 2010.
* In 2017, 33% switched from their 2015 vote
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2019 : Brexit issue based voting
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2019
* The Conservatives managed to win the votes of 74% of Leave voters
* Labour managed to take only about 49% of Remain voters
2019
* The Conservatives managed to win the votes of 74% of Leave voters
* Labour managed to take only about 49% of Remain voters
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2015 + 2017 students > Labour
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. In 2015 and 2017 students pivoted towards Labour after the Tory-Lib Dem coalition tripled the annual charges and slashed maintenance payments.
. In 2015 and 2017 students pivoted towards Labour after the Tory-Lib Dem coalition tripled the annual charges and slashed maintenance payments.
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1983 labour manifesto
1983 : Labour’s manifesto contained commitments to extend nationalisation, increase taxation, boost public spending and abolish the nuclear deterrent and a withdrawal from the EEC
* These policies encouraged the Party to focus its electoral appeal on the diminishing ranks of the ‘traditional’ working class rather than on the expanding middle class.
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* These policies encouraged the Party to focus its electoral appeal on the diminishing ranks of the ‘traditional’ working class rather than on the expanding middle class.
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1997 labour manifesto
1997 : Blair completed this shift with a commitment to maintain the privatisations of the
Thatcher era as well as five other pledges
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* Cut class sizes of under-7s to 30 or under
* Fast track punishment for persistent young offenders
* Cut NHS waiting lists ‒
* Get 250,000 under-25s off benefits ‒
* No rise in income tax
Thatcher era as well as five other pledges
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* Cut class sizes of under-7s to 30 or under
* Fast track punishment for persistent young offenders
* Cut NHS waiting lists ‒
* Get 250,000 under-25s off benefits ‒
* No rise in income tax
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2017 : social care Theresa May
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* In 2017 (as well as 2019) Brexit was a huge factor, with 55% of Remainers voting Labour and 65% of Leavers voting Conservative
* The issue of social care for the elderly unexpectedly assumed centre stage, inflicting political damage on Theresa May’s party.
* In 2017 (as well as 2019) Brexit was a huge factor, with 55% of Remainers voting Labour and 65% of Leavers voting Conservative
* The issue of social care for the elderly unexpectedly assumed centre stage, inflicting political damage on Theresa May’s party.
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issues not so significant ?
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However, issues are not always so significant. In 1992, 2017 and 2019, Labour’s policies were more popular than the Conservatives, but in all three elections, the Conservatives prevailed.
However, issues are not always so significant. In 1992, 2017 and 2019, Labour’s policies were more popular than the Conservatives, but in all three elections, the Conservatives prevailed.
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1997 governing competence
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The 1997 General Election may well have been as much about losing faith in Major’s Conservative Government as it was about support for Blair’s New Labour.
The 1997 General Election may well have been as much about losing faith in Major’s Conservative Government as it was about support for Blair’s New Labour.
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2010 governing competence
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If the 2010 General Election could be regarded as a ‘referendum’ on Labour’s performance, the party was fatally damaged by the loss of its reputation for economic competence following the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent sharp recession.
If the 2010 General Election could be regarded as a ‘referendum’ on Labour’s performance, the party was fatally damaged by the loss of its reputation for economic competence following the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent sharp recession.
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2015 governing competence
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In the case of the Conservatives in 2015, it was notable that the claim that their plan was working was sustained by an economic recovery that had started two years earlier
In the case of the Conservatives in 2015, it was notable that the claim that their plan was working was sustained by an economic recovery that had started two years earlier
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2010 leaders
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2010 ELECTION
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* The importance of leaders was greatly enhanced in 2010 by the introduction of televised debates between the candidates of the three leading parties.
* Despite ‘Cleggmania’ and Nick Clegg’s approval ratings increasing, this did not translate into more electoral success and made little difference
* Gordon Brown consistently lagged behind Cameron in opinion polls
2010 ELECTION
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* The importance of leaders was greatly enhanced in 2010 by the introduction of televised debates between the candidates of the three leading parties.
* Despite ‘Cleggmania’ and Nick Clegg’s approval ratings increasing, this did not translate into more electoral success and made little difference
* Gordon Brown consistently lagged behind Cameron in opinion polls
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2015 leaders
2015 ELECTION
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* Clear and consistent opinion poll lead that Cameron maintained over Ed Miliband, who many voters struggled to see as a credible Prime Minister
* Ed Milliband bacon sandwich picture and ‘The Edstone’
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* Clear and consistent opinion poll lead that Cameron maintained over Ed Miliband, who many voters struggled to see as a credible Prime Minister
* Ed Milliband bacon sandwich picture and ‘The Edstone’
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2017 leaders
2017 ELECTION
* Until the election, Corbyn was considered a disastrous leader and May a safe, reliable pair of hands. She certainly appeared to have two of the three criteria – trust and strength – although she was lacking in ‘relaxed likeability’.
* However, Corbyn enthused young voters with his authentic and relaxed style, whereas May’s wooden style and awkwardness turned many voters off
* In 2017 Theresa May's 'Maybot' image as unemotional, cold and hard to like, contrasted with Corbyn's appeal to the young who chanted 'Hey Jeremy Corbyn' and referred to him as 'Jezza'.
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* Until the election, Corbyn was considered a disastrous leader and May a safe, reliable pair of hands. She certainly appeared to have two of the three criteria – trust and strength – although she was lacking in ‘relaxed likeability’.
* However, Corbyn enthused young voters with his authentic and relaxed style, whereas May’s wooden style and awkwardness turned many voters off
* In 2017 Theresa May's 'Maybot' image as unemotional, cold and hard to like, contrasted with Corbyn's appeal to the young who chanted 'Hey Jeremy Corbyn' and referred to him as 'Jezza'.
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2019 leaders
2019 ELECTION
* neither Johnson nor Corbyn universally liked or respected
* Corbyn had lost the likeability appeal that had served him well in 2017, whereas Johnson was distrusted by many and this was not helped by his avoiding of reporters or dodging set-piece TV interviews
* 49% of all voters said Boris Johnson would make the best Prime Minister, with only 31% naming Jeremy Corbyn and 20% saying they didn’t know, leading Johnson towards an 80-seat majority
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* neither Johnson nor Corbyn universally liked or respected
* Corbyn had lost the likeability appeal that had served him well in 2017, whereas Johnson was distrusted by many and this was not helped by his avoiding of reporters or dodging set-piece TV interviews
* 49% of all voters said Boris Johnson would make the best Prime Minister, with only 31% naming Jeremy Corbyn and 20% saying they didn’t know, leading Johnson towards an 80-seat majority
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1980s and 1990s party image
Labour undoubtedly had an ‘image problem’ in the 1980s, still being seen as a party closely linked to the unions
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During the 1990s, the Conservative Party’s splits over Europe deepened as John Major’s Cabinet rebelled against him. It also developed a reputation as the ‘nasty party’ , seen to be associated with a ‘get rich quick’ ethos and appeared to show little sympathy for the weak or disadvantaged.
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During the 1990s, the Conservative Party’s splits over Europe deepened as John Major’s Cabinet rebelled against him. It also developed a reputation as the ‘nasty party’ , seen to be associated with a ‘get rich quick’ ethos and appeared to show little sympathy for the weak or disadvantaged.
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party image new labour
Labour had worked hard to change its image to New Labour under Blair and Brown
* The party was also totally united behind Blair, having been told to shave ‘old fashioned’ moustaches, dress smartly and carry pagers so they could be updated instantly with the party’s view on an issue
* Blair was perceived as the perfect person to lead the ‘Cool Britannia’ era and represented a break with the out-of-date Tories.
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* changing a party’s image requires policy changes as well as the right leader
* The party was also totally united behind Blair, having been told to shave ‘old fashioned’ moustaches, dress smartly and carry pagers so they could be updated instantly with the party’s view on an issue
* Blair was perceived as the perfect person to lead the ‘Cool Britannia’ era and represented a break with the out-of-date Tories.
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* changing a party’s image requires policy changes as well as the right leader
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party image cameron and may
After Cameron became Conservative leader in December 2005, his strategy was largely devoted to ‘detoxifying’ the party’s image.
* stress on achieving a more inclusive appeal aimed at the young, women and ethnic minority voters.
* such image rebranding contributed significantly to the 5% swing from Labour to the Conservatives in 2010.
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At the beginning of 2017, polls suggested that the ‘strong and stable’ image of May’s party was just what the country wanted as she led polls by up to 20%
* The party conveyed the image that they were best placed to steer the country through the Brexit process.
* However, that image crumbled during the election campaign and the reality was a stubborn leader with weak policies and no positive plans for the future.
* The Labour Party under Corbyn was positive and passionate and had a forward-looking but feasible manifesto, which enthused large swathes of young voters with their modern image
* stress on achieving a more inclusive appeal aimed at the young, women and ethnic minority voters.
* such image rebranding contributed significantly to the 5% swing from Labour to the Conservatives in 2010.
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At the beginning of 2017, polls suggested that the ‘strong and stable’ image of May’s party was just what the country wanted as she led polls by up to 20%
* The party conveyed the image that they were best placed to steer the country through the Brexit process.
* However, that image crumbled during the election campaign and the reality was a stubborn leader with weak policies and no positive plans for the future.
* The Labour Party under Corbyn was positive and passionate and had a forward-looking but feasible manifesto, which enthused large swathes of young voters with their modern image
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2019 party image
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* In 2019, both parties’ image was weak. Neither leader was particularly liked or trusted and their manifestos were either very vague and brief (Conservative) or hugely ambitious and lacking in credibility (Labour).
* In this period, the overriding issue was Brexit and party image was based on their position on that particular issue.
* Labour’s image was poor, mainly because it didn’t appear to have a strong and clear position, whereas the Conservative image, as the party who would ‘get Brexit done’, won the day in the end.
* Both Parties were fundamentally split, with the Conservative rift being, certainly in public, much greater and deeper than Labour’s.
* In 2019, both parties’ image was weak. Neither leader was particularly liked or trusted and their manifestos were either very vague and brief (Conservative) or hugely ambitious and lacking in credibility (Labour).
* In this period, the overriding issue was Brexit and party image was based on their position on that particular issue.
* Labour’s image was poor, mainly because it didn’t appear to have a strong and clear position, whereas the Conservative image, as the party who would ‘get Brexit done’, won the day in the end.
* Both Parties were fundamentally split, with the Conservative rift being, certainly in public, much greater and deeper than Labour’s.
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1992 major campaign
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In 1992, the unpopular PM John Major was brought to life during the campaign, famously eschewing high-tech campaign strategies by standing on a soapbox to talk to voters all across the country. It was surprisingly effective and secured him a majority.
In 1992, the unpopular PM John Major was brought to life during the campaign, famously eschewing high-tech campaign strategies by standing on a soapbox to talk to voters all across the country. It was surprisingly effective and secured him a majority.
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2010 tory campaign
The 2010 Conservative campaign
* sought to damage Labour’s image by associating it with ‘excessive’ spending, and for wasting money when the economy was booming rather than keeping reserves for when the inevitable downturn occurred.
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* The 2008–9 financial crisis was therefore portrayed as ‘Labour’s debt crisis’, an allegation that Labour failed to counter effectively.
* This gained considerable traction with the electorate; in one opinion poll 59 per cent of voters agreed that most of the extra money spent by the Labour government had been wasted.
* sought to damage Labour’s image by associating it with ‘excessive’ spending, and for wasting money when the economy was booming rather than keeping reserves for when the inevitable downturn occurred.
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* The 2008–9 financial crisis was therefore portrayed as ‘Labour’s debt crisis’, an allegation that Labour failed to counter effectively.
* This gained considerable traction with the electorate; in one opinion poll 59 per cent of voters agreed that most of the extra money spent by the Labour government had been wasted.
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2017 Labour campaign
2017 campaign
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* Corbyn began the campaign 20 points behind May and by the end of it had increased Labour’s vote share by 10%.
* It was suggested that Corbyn’s ability to enthuse young people with huge rallies as well as via an excellent social media campaign was key to his success.
* Despite being the largest party, May was fatally wounded by her poor campaign and losing the Government’s majority
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* Corbyn began the campaign 20 points behind May and by the end of it had increased Labour’s vote share by 10%.
* It was suggested that Corbyn’s ability to enthuse young people with huge rallies as well as via an excellent social media campaign was key to his success.
* Despite being the largest party, May was fatally wounded by her poor campaign and losing the Government’s majority
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2019 campaign
2019 campaign
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* Labour understandably used similar strategies that had been successful in 2017, such as an extensive manifesto filled with popular policies, a very high-profile social media campaign, and Corbyn appearing on many TV sofas and rallies packed with enthusiastic supporters.
* Johnson, on the other hand, dodged national events and was absent from key TV debates and interviews, and was clinically targeting key seats with his ‘Get Brexit Done’ message.
* Opinion polls seemed to suggest a closing of the gap in the run-up to election day, and many thought Corbyn had been successful in stopping Boris getting a large majority
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* Labour understandably used similar strategies that had been successful in 2017, such as an extensive manifesto filled with popular policies, a very high-profile social media campaign, and Corbyn appearing on many TV sofas and rallies packed with enthusiastic supporters.
* Johnson, on the other hand, dodged national events and was absent from key TV debates and interviews, and was clinically targeting key seats with his ‘Get Brexit Done’ message.
* Opinion polls seemed to suggest a closing of the gap in the run-up to election day, and many thought Corbyn had been successful in stopping Boris getting a large majority
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partisan alignment
* In 1979, 83 per cent of the electorate cast their votes for Labour and the Conservatives.
* By 1997 this had fallen to 75 per cent
* 67 per cent by 2010.
* By 1997 this had fallen to 75 per cent
* 67 per cent by 2010.
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red wall + brexit
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* In the 2016 EU referendum, 64% of lower-working class voters (DE) voted to leave.
* Leave supporting seats in the Midlands and North, many of which had never voted Conservative before turned ‘blue, such as Wrexham and Workington.
* In the 2016 EU referendum, 64% of lower-working class voters (DE) voted to leave.
* Leave supporting seats in the Midlands and North, many of which had never voted Conservative before turned ‘blue, such as Wrexham and Workington.
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still possible to predict voting behaviour based on class?
* in 2017, Labour held 72 of the 100 constituencies with the most working-class households
* All five constituencies in Liverpool are strong Labour seats with approximately 70% of the vote
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* All five constituencies in Liverpool are strong Labour seats with approximately 70% of the vote
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Age could be a function of other short term factors
Age could be a function of other short term factors
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* Labour’s appeal to the young dramatically increased with the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader, suggesting that it is leadership that is the significant factor
* Labour’s appeal to the young dramatically increased with the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader, suggesting that it is leadership that is the significant factor
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Patterns of regional voting have as much to do with short term factors as long-term, social factors and region differences are affected by short-term factors like leadership and policy
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* It could be that the policy changes and leadership of Blair were the reasons for his appeal widening to different areas in the UK.
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2019 Conservative manifesto
* commitment to free market economy, but moved away from Cameron's austerity
* spending 'one nation government' which would invest in public services 'we will not raise the rate of income Tax, VAT or National Insurance'.
* promised 50,000 more nurses and extra NHS funding
* net zero by 2050
* appealed to former Labour voters, who want to see investment in public services but were skeptical of The Labour Manifesto which promised £83 billion in spending compared to Conservatives' £3 Billion.
* 52 percent believe recession will follow Corbyn victory %
* spending 'one nation government' which would invest in public services 'we will not raise the rate of income Tax, VAT or National Insurance'.
* promised 50,000 more nurses and extra NHS funding
* net zero by 2050
* appealed to former Labour voters, who want to see investment in public services but were skeptical of The Labour Manifesto which promised £83 billion in spending compared to Conservatives' £3 Billion.
* 52 percent believe recession will follow Corbyn victory %