ETV that the popularity of the PM is the most important factor influencing the balance of power between the cabinet and the Prime minister (30 marks)

P1: Popularity of the PM

• Popularity of a Prime Minister with the public is a highly important factor in influencing whether they are able to exercise control over their cabinet and party

• if the Prime Minister is unpopular they will be seen as an electoral liability and their party and cabinet will often turn on them and seek to remove them

Thatcher was very popular mid-way through being PM however became very unpopular with the public after trying to push through with the poll tax despite its unpopularity and the cabinet opposing it

 

2019- Johnson was an electoral asset- eventually became an electoral liability following the partygate scandal, cabinet gained power and he was eventually forced out by key members of the cabinet resigning

HOWEVER

• Party unity

• Divisions over policy within a governing party can cause problems for a Prime Minister who may struggle to keep the support of opposing factions within the party

The tories effectively removed Thatcher when she faced the leadership contents they were fed up with her domineering effect

 

Major faced a leadership contest from John Redwood and Eurosceptic in the tory party almost defeated the Maastricht treaty that he negotiated with Brussels

 

Blair became unpopular within his party especially after Iraq

 

Brown may have had few MPs willing to openly challenge him but very few actually were willing to actually openly challenge him

 

Cameron's call for a referendum stemmed in part from the Eurosceptic right wing of the party

 

May accepted defeat after the brexit process was completed- her resignation was brought forward- struggled to keep support from ERG european research group

 

Divisions over NHS

 

Divisions over gov. Spending

P2: Popularity of the PM

• Popularity of the PM is paticularly important in an era of personality politics- the media focuses on individual personalities and leadership quality is often determined by this

Truss' mini budget- seen as a failure, compared to a lettuce to see how long she would stay in

 

Blair's image was used by the Labour Party in 1997 in 2001 to promote its manifestos

 

Cameron in 2010 used his personal popularity to win boats and some by elections even renamed the party David Cameron's conservatives

 

Boris Johnson seemed at home taking part in publicity stunts driving a JCP through gridlock parliament sign in 2019 general action to signify that he was going to get Brexit done

HOWEVER

• Success at bypassing cabinet

• Prime ministers have more control in smaller forums and it is easier to reach a compromise with one or two key ministers in the whole cabinet as a consequence they often use smaller cabinet committees bilateral meetings with ministers and informal groups to make decisions shunning the cabinet

• SPADs in recent years have occupied an important role in Downing St and in decision making these are unlocked in a hired directly by the PM working with them to develop government strategy

• PMs office and cabinet office- grown in recent years

black and brown negotiated with each other to determine economic policy black often used bilateral meetings his style of governing was dubbed sofa government as a result he largely shunned the cabinet

 

in the coalition the quad was used to make a number of key decisions and resolve issues between the conservatives and the Lib Dems

 

may and Johnson used cabinet committees to make decisions on important issues

 

major heart just 8 special advisers but by 2005 Tony Blair had 30

 

may relied on special advisers nick Timothy and Fiona hill to help her develop policy and manage government

 

Cameron create a policy and implementation unit 2011

 

Johnson COVID press briefings

P3: Popularity of the PM

• A popular PM who commands a large majority is arguably the most important factor in determining the balance of power

• When a PM is riding high in opinion polls and seen as an electoral asset they can more effectively command the loyalty and respect of their colleagues who owe their positions to the PMs continued premiership

• This is often referred to as having prime ministerial coattails a lot of MP's owe their seats the PM and so are more likely to be loyal and vocal supporters appea

in the 1983 election and the 1997 election flattering Blair won a lot of seats in areas not traditionally seen as being supporters of their parties

 

while they remain popular for a time when their reputations became more of a hindrance likely to cost them seats split started to emerge and there was declining support for them leading to their eventual removal

HOWEVER

• The ability of the PM to manage their cabinet

• An effective Prime Minister can use their powers of patronage to shape the top team in a way that enhances their power and enables them to promote their policy priorities and agenda removing poor performers bringing in fresh talent and promoting ideological allies

• this can allow prime ministers to maintain their authority and marginalised the power of factions in their party who may want to challenge them for their leadership

• The PM chairs all cabinet meetings and sums up the discussion at the end, giving them scope to lead people toward their desired position

May failed to effectively manage her cabinet and was constantly undermined by leaking and briefing against the government by Johnson in paticular

 

May prevented a vote within cabinet on whether no deal brexit was an option despite other cabinet ministers supporting one

 

Cameron made austerity key to the coalition's policies and the responsibility of every department