Chapter 14 -Global Environmental Change And The Earth System

Anthropocene

An informal term for a geological epoch after the Holocene, marked by significant human impact on Earth's environment. Proposed by Paul Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer in 2000, it is often linked to the Industrial Revolution, though its start date is debated.

Emergent Behavior

Behavior in a system arising from interactions between its parts, not from the parts individually. Complex systems like Earth require analysis of all interactions and feedbacks, as their behavior cannot be predicted from individual components.

Dansgaard - oeschger events

25 episodes of rapid warming followed by a gradual cooling back to “normal” glacial conditions

Heinrich Events

 25 episodes of rapid warming followed by a gradual cooling back to “normal” glacial conditions

Heinrich events

Periods of extreme cold when icebergs melted in the North Atlantic, depositing sediment farther south than usual and adding freshwater to the ocean, weakening the ocean conveyor and worsening regional cooling

Geoengineering

The intentional and controversial alteration of one part of the earths system for mitigating a perceived problem in another part of the system, usually pertaining to climate change and global warming

Reducing consumption

Just buy and waste less stuff

Resilience

The ability of a community or other system to recover from a disruption caused by an extreme event such as a storm, flood, drought, epidemic, etc. 

Resistance

A system's ability to withstand extreme events without disrupting operations, infrastructure, or services. Resistance prevents disruption, while resilience enables recovery. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant lacked resistance to the 2011 tsunami, leading to complete shutdown despite resilience efforts.

Phytoplankton farmers

Mariculture farmers who boost primary producers like phytoplankton to support higher-level organisms for human consumption, similar to ranchers as "grass farmers" on land.

A number of different models we can make, such as

physical, numerical, simulations

Decide whether model is broad or deep

Earth System models range from simple "daisy-world" models to intermediate complexity models (EMICs) and full-form models (e.g., GCMs), each with strengths and weaknesses.

The big question:

How reliable do the parts need to be for the whole system to become more accurate rather than more uncertain when they're combined?

Emergent Behavior

A complex system behaves differently than its parts. System obeys a simple set of rules (ex birds, fish)

Rules for the earth system are far more complicated then

the rules for birds

Hilbertian Questions

23 VERY tough questions posed by IGBP-GAIM to challenge the Earth System Science research community for the next 100 years.

Analytical Questions

Basic science issues (What do we need to know?)

Operational Questions

How should we proceed (what do we need to start getting answers to analytical questions?)

Normative Questions

What do we want (What drives what we do about anything, given what we may know or learn about the earth system

Strategic questions

How do we get what we want? (Policy? Behavior? Planning?)

Mitigation

Prevent bad things from happening

Adaptation

Better prepare yourself to deal with what happens

We can mitigate climate change by reducing emissions b/c

we cannot change the past, and climate has yet to finish its response to 20th century emissions.

Goals of mitigation

stop climate change by halting emissions, eliminate invasive species, strengthen pollution regulations, etc

How do you mitigate environmental changes

• Figure out what matters. (climate and ecosystem function)

• Figure out what drives changes in that. (emissions; land use; etc.)

• Figure out how to stop or reverse those drivers. (energy, population)

• Figure out who will not want to cooperate. (lots of people…)

• Determine WHY it is worth mitigating changes!!...

Geoengineering Class Definition

Large-scale global efforts to counteract the causes OR impacts of global climate change. (NOT alterating human behavior!)

Two kinds of geoengineering

• Reduce drivers of climate change (CCS or CCR)

• Counteract symptoms of climate change (solar radiation management - SRM)

Reduce drivers of climate change (CCS or CCR)

• Smokestack CO2 scrubbers

• Atmospheric CO2 “filters”

• Marine fertilization (iron, nitrogen, etc.)

  
  

Counteract symptoms of climate change (solar radiation management – SRM)

• Orbiting mirrors

• Stratospheric aerosols

• White urban rooftops

• Water sequestration to reduce sea level rise

Limits of geoengineering

CCR to slow CO₂ rise and SRM to limit or reverse temperature increases cannot fully restore the climate and must supplement real climate change mitigation.

Sea level rise (flooding and storm surge)

Build poulders and dikes, Rebuild barrier beach infrastructure farther inland, Relocate cities ($$), Floating communities…

Agricultural belts - alter what is being grown

Utilize climate models to predict hydrologic changes, shift to rain-fed crops over fossil groundwater irrigation, enhance GMOs for resilience, and promote sustainable mariculture like phytoplankton farming.

Storms

Update architectural codes, restore coastal ecosystems, and enhance urban storm drains and sewer systems to improve climate resilience.

Disease vectors (human health and crop pestilence)

Prepare healthcare systems for emerging diseases and adapt integrated pest management in agriculture to changing conditions.

Invasive Species

Create safeguards against accidental species transport, design species-specific controls, and find societal uses for ____

Soil erosion

Promote hydroponics, aquaculture, and urban agriculture to adapt to changing agricultural conditions.

Ozone depletion (stratospheric - deal with UVB)

Encourage use of hats, sunglasses, and sunblock, and develop UVB-resistant GMO crops.

Water pollution - find ways to use polluted water

Upgrade water treatment plants, recycle urban sewage water, and relocate recreation areas as adaptation measures.

Effective mitigation is not management of the earth system, its

management of earths people

Sustainability Principles

Redefine problems instead of relying solely on technology, include all people, adjust culture for sustainable population levels, plan proactively, internalize environmental costs, treat resource theft as a crime, and act as responsible stewards of the Earth.

Environmental Econ Policy

The value of environmental goods and services, and the cost of degradation, remediation, or adaptation

Human activities have altered planetary function

Humans have changed how the planet works through their actions

No analogue state

describes Earth's current condition of severe disequilibrium, where human-induced changes in land use and emissions have disrupted atmospheric chemistry, temperature, ocean circulation, biome distribution, sea levels, glaciers, and more.

Most environmental issues are driven by or heavily influenced by

economics

The commons

A resource that is available to all, yet for which none are specifically responsible for maintenance, nor authorized for regulation.

The millenial scientific transition, where 20th century - industrialists - exploiting resources for economic development compared to

21st century - physicians - reparing the damage done by 20Th century industrialization

Smart businessmen have always reaped profits by transferring some of the costs of their business to others. This is “externalization.” When environmental costs are externalized, it leads to

the tragedy of the commons

Agricultural externalities

Human activities causing habitat loss lead to reduced biodiversity, soil erosion, waterway siltation, carbon and nutrient imbalances, increased temperature fluctuations, and environmental degradation through runoff and pests.

Freebies

Global economy has been based on the assumption that all ecosystem goods and services are free for the taking (open world), but we are eating into the “principal.” The only truly free thing is sunlight (and tides, and maybe geothermal heat)

Environmental policy

If we can learn enough about the science of the environment to understand the system and human impacts, how can we alter human behavior to achieve a desired future environment?

Laws that protect the commons are

• Typically weak and non-binding

• Cheaper to pay the fine

• Laws often address end-of-pipe rather than fundamental issue.

Kyoto protocol

Agreement by industrialized countries to reduce emissions to near 1990 levels.

Copenhagen climate summit resulted in

no resolution, agreement, or commitment