CPO 4731: Concepts and Main Ideas:

What is the core purpose of elections in authoritarian regimes?

Elections help rulers stay in power by maintaining elite loyalty, gathering information, mobilizing society, legitimizing the regime, and weakening the opposition.

How do elections give authoritarian rulers information?

They reveal which regions/elites are loyal or disloyal, helping decide where to reward, co-opt, or coerce.

How do autocrats use elections to legitimize regimes?

High turnout and forced participation signal dominance and discourage opposition coordination.

How do elections help autocrats divide or weaken the opposition?

Using fraud, intimidation, high thresholds, or restrictive rules to keep opposition fragmented and powerless.

How do elections help autocrats create economic dependency?

Regimes tie voter´s economic survival to the ruling party where poverty traps make it rational for poorer voters to support the regime.

How is Mexico´s PRI an example of how authoritarian regimes hold elections:

The PRI used elections to reward loyal politicians with patronage jobs. They gathered information by using local vote totals to help them identify weak bosses and where intervention was needed. 

What is the main purpose of political parties in authoritarian regimes?

To keep the ruler in power—not to enable fair competition.

What are the functions of political parties within authoritarian systems:

Political parties serve as a way for authoritarian leaders to gather information, mobilize citizens, distribute benefits, co-opt and control, project invincibility, and distribute rents.

How do authoritarian parties gather information?

By monitoring elite loyalty and detecting potential defection.

How do authoritarian parties distribute benefits?

They provide jobs, spoils, and favors to ensure elite and citizen loyalty.

What is co-optation?

Bringing potential opponents into the regime by offering spoils, making them dependent on the ruling party.

What does “projecting invincibility” mean in an autocratic party?

Using elections and dominance to signal that the ruling party cannot be defeated.

• PRI: Big turnout showed the PRI was ¨ invincible¨

What are competitive elections under authoritarianism?

Elections that appear competitive but are manipulated so the ruling party always wins.

Define predominant party democracy.

A democracy where one party repeatedly wins but could theoretically lose, unlike in autocracies.

How do politicians violate the integrity of elections?

Vote buying, manipulating polling access, ballot-box stuffing, exploiting lack of oversight, tampering with the vote count, altering/destroying tallies and ballots, and manipulating preliminary results/ system crash.

What is vote buying?

Offering money, goods, or favors in exchange for a vote.

How can politicians manipulate polling access?

By closing stations early, delaying opening, reducing machines, or placing stations far from opposition areas.

What is ballot-box stuffing?

Adding fraudulent ballots or removing real ones to inflate ruling-party votes.

Why does lack of oversight facilitate fraud?

Without opposition poll-watchers, fraud goes undetected.

How can politicians manipulate vote counting?

By halting counts, altering tallies, or falsifying results during aggregation.

What does “system crash” manipulation mean?

Stopping preliminary results to buy time to alter the vote totals (Ex:, Mexico 1988).

What is a collective action problem?

When individuals would benefit from acting together but fear acting alone, so no one acts.

How does major fraud help solve collective action problems?

It creates shared outrage at the same time, making people believe others will protest too.

What is motivated reasoning?

Interpreting information in a way that reinforces existing beliefs or partisan loyalties.

How does motivated reasoning affect perceptions of fraud?

Supporters dismiss accusations as fake; opponents believe fraud occurred regardless of evidence.

What type of fraud triggers mass protests?

Major fraud that clearly changes outcomes.

What conditions of electoral fraud may cause citizens to overcome collective action problems:

The fraud must be MAJOR, citizens have to experience the fraud simultaneously, people must believe others will join them, people must think that the regime cant punish everyone, and the fraud must clearly show that the regime is illegitimate.

Why must citizens experience abuse simultaneously?

Shared timing increases belief that “everyone else will protest too.”

Why does belief in mass participation matter?

Protest feels safer when people think others will join.

When is repression less intimidating?

When crowds are large enough that “the regime can’t punish everyone.”

How does fraud signal regime vulnerability?

It exposes illegitimacy, making protest seem potentially successful.

Define Hegemonic Authoritarian Regime (HAR).

An authoritarian regime where elections exist but the ruling party always wins; opposition cannot gain power, competition is fake, and regime faces little to no vulnerability to international pressure.  

Define Competitive Authoritarian Regime (CAR).

Authoritarian regime where elections exist and opposition can compete but competition is unfair and manipulated so opposition victory is unlikely (but still possible under certain conditions!)

Can opposition win in HARs?

No — victory is structurally impossible.

Can opposition win in CARs?

Yes, but only under special conditions (unity + weak regime).

How does international pressure affect CARs vs HARs?

Pressure can influence CARs but has almost no effect on HARs.

How does regime strength affect CAR outcomes?

Weak CARs are vulnerable; strong CARs can repress and manipulate more effectively.

When does opposition unity matter in CARs?

A unified opposition can defeat incumbents in weak CARs.

When does opposition division help the regime in CARs?

When opposition is fragmented, CARs remain stable.

How does international conditionality affect CAR survival?

CARs can fall when international actors impose conditionality because it raises cost of repression and encourages regime to allow genuine competition.

How does economic performance matter in CARs?

Economic decline weakens patronage networks → more likely democratization.

What is a Revolutionary Threshold?

The point at which an individual joins a protest once enough others have acted.

What is selective exposure?

Choosing to consume information that matches your preexisting beliefs.

What is international conditionality?

Rewards or sanctions  tied to meeting democratic standards. (Positive and Negative Conditionality)

What methods does Putin employ to maintain power?

He manipulates elections, controls the media and press, represses civil society/opposition, centralizes power (vertical of power), weakens institutions of accountability

How does Putin manipulate elections?

Bars/jails opponents, uses large-scale electoral fraud, and ensures elections never pose real competition.

How does Putin control the media?

Shuts down independent outlets, labels critics as “foreign agents,” limits VPNs and access to external information, and bans truthful language (Ex: “war”).

What is the “vertical of power”?

Putin’s centralization of authority—weakening regions, controlling oligarchs, and reducing institutional autonomy.

Why do high approval ratings help Putin stay in power?

They signal legitimacy, discourage elite defection, and benefit from nationalism (Ex: Crimea, Ukraine).

How does economic performance help Putin maintain power?

Economic growth increases approval and state-controlled resources fund patronage and reward loyal elites/regions.

What is selective repression?

Targeting protesters and opposition leaders without mass violence.

How does Putin weaken accountability institutions?

Controls courts, parliament, and watchdog agencies, and uses constitutional engineering.

Is Putin’s popularity completely real?

Not entirely—part propaganda, part fear, part restricted information, and part genuine support for stability and nationalism.

What are the prospects of democratization in Russia?

Democratization in Russia is very unlikely. Russia’s authoritarian institutions, controlled media, weak opposition, and limited international leverage make democratization highly unlikely.

Why do strong authoritarian institutions block democratization in Russia?

They are deeply entrenched: centralized power, weak oligarch independence, crushed media, and “sticky” authoritarian structures.

Why does a weak free press undermine democratization in Russia?

Without independent information, citizens cannot hold leaders accountable or mobilize.

Why don’t economic cycles strongly predict democratization in Russia?

Russia’s authoritarian stability no longer depends on oil income cycles.

How does international pressure affect Russia’s democratization prospects?

Very limited—Russia is HAR-like, not dependent on Western aid, and sanctions have inconsistent effects.

Does military intervention promote democratization?

No—almost no meaningful improvement.

Why do democratic interveners fail to promote democracy?

They prioritize strategic interests and stability over true democratic reform.

Why do authoritarian interveners avoid promoting democracy?

A democratized state could later challenge or punish them.

Why don’t UN interventions promote democracy?

There are authoritarian members in the Security Council who require concessions (private gains) that limit democratic reform.

What do 10-year democracy scores show about interventions?

Most military interventions reduce or barely change democracy scores. Same with autocrat and democrat interveners. UN + Democratic states intervention can promote. U.S. alone has highest effect in promoting democracy but these results are misleading. 

Why does the U.S. appear “successful” in promoting democracy?

Selection effect: it intervenes in highly autocratic states where any small improvement looks large.

What does Selectorate Theory say about interventions?

Interveners want loyal allies; real democracy creates uncertainty → incentive to avoid true democratization.

What is democratic imposition?

When external actors attempt to force or install democracy (forcing democracy from the outside)—through military intervention or coercion.

Does democratic imposition work?

Rarely—produces usually ineffective and symbolic institutions (“little if any improvement”).

What is democratic emulation?

Countries learn or imitate neighbors’ successful transitions by learning that “it can be done and how.”

Why does emulation work better?

It works through ideas, norms, example, and regional influence—not coercion/ external intervention.

Do democratic regional organizations promote democratization?

Moderately— they create pressure, norms, and incentives for reform.

How do regional organizations encourage reform?

Through pressure, acquiescence, and legitimizing democratic norms.

How do regional organization encourage reform through acquiescence?

As part of those organizations, authoritarian governments must agree to certain reforms in order to stay in good standing with the other member countries.

What does evidence about regional organizations show?

Countries surrounded by democracies tend to democratize more. They have a diffusion effect: members learn from and imitate their democratic neighbors.

What are the limitations of regional organizations?

Reforms can be superficial/symbolic if domestic elites resist real change; membership does not guarantee democratization.

Why do regional organizations matter more than military intervention?

They create shared norms, pressure, and reputational costs for authoritarian behavior, offering a stable and less costly pathway towards democratic reform.

Does foreign assistance promote democratization?

Yes — but only when it is democracy & governance (DG) aid, not general development aid.

What is DG (Democracy & Governance) aid?

Aid that funds elections, civil society, media, rule of law, and human rights.

Does general development aid (education, health, infrastructure) promote democracy?

No — it improves development but has no reliable democratizing effect.

What evidence supports the effectiveness of DG aid?

US DG aid improves Freedom House + Polity IV scores even after controlling for income, conflict, and inequality. This shows how DG aid truly works and is not just effective in easy countries (contrary to U.S. intervention which only proved successful because they targeted easy countries)

Which democratic pillars does DG aid strengthen?

Elections (strongest effect), civil society, media, human rights, and governance.

What is linkage?

Depth of economic, social, political, and communication ties to the West.

How does linkage promote democratization?

High linkage makes abuses more visible—creating constant external + domestic pressure for reform.

What is leverage?

A country’s vulnerability to external pressure (sanctions, diplomatic pressure, intervention threats).

What determines leverage?

Country size, economy, military strength, and whether it has alternative sources of support (Ex: Russia/China).

When is leverage effective?

When linkage is also high—high leverage + high linkage = strongest democratizing impact.

When does foreign assistance promote democratization?

• When it is DG aid

• When the country has high linkage

• When leverage is strong enough to pressure elites

• When it supports democratic actors rather than regimes

When does foreign aid NOT help democratization?

• When it is general development aid

• When countries have low linkage

• When regimes rely on alternative patrons

• When aid strengthens friendly autocrats

How effective are linkage + leverage as a democratizing strategy?

Moderately strong, but depend on geopolitical context.

Which democratization strategy is strongest?

Targeted Democracy & Governance (DG) assistance — strongest empirical support

What are the main components of Electoral Systems?

District magnitude, number of votes voters can cast, ballot structure (categorical, dividual, ordinal), the categories of electoral systems (plurality/majority, PR, mixed), and translation of votes to seats.

What is district magnitude (DM)?

Number of seats elected per district (DM=1 for SMD; DM>1 for PR).

Why does district magnitude matter?

High DM → more proportional outcomes + more parties;
Low DM → fewer parties + less proportionality.

What is the significance of number of votes?

Some systems give voters 1 vote; others (mixed systems) give 2 votes (Ex: Germany: district vote + PR vote).

What are the three ballot structures?

• Categorical (choose 1 candidate/party)

• Dividual (split votes across parties)

• Ordinal (rank candidates)

What are Plurality Systems:

Systems where the candidate with the most votes wins a single seat (even without a majority). Examples: U.S., U.K. Favors two large parties

What is SMDP/First Past the Post?

One seat per vote, candidate with most votes wins.

What are majority systems?

• the candidate must get more than 50% of the votes

what are proportional representation systems?

Parties win seats roughly in proportion to their share of the vote. Better representation of small parties and minorities.

what is open and closed list PR?

Open-list PR- voters choose candidates within parties and Closed-list PR- voters choose only a party.

What are mixed systems?

Combine both plurality/majority rules and PR rules, Example: Germany, New Zealand. They blend local representation + proportional fairness.