POLITICAL REALIGNMENT & DEALIGNMENT

What is the main finding of the Burn-Murdoch (2024) Financial Times article on racial realignment?

American politics undergoing racial realignment: Democrats losing non-white voters faster than any demographic. Biden's lead among non-white voters dropped from 50 points (2020) to 12 points (2024 polling). Democrats' advantage among Black, Latino, Asian voters at lowest since 1960. Many non-white voters held conservative views but voted Democrat due to history/community—now realizing they've been "voting for wrong party."

What is the "preference cascade" mentioned in Burn-Murdoch's article?

Term from Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini's book Party of the People (2023). As US becomes less racially segregated, frictions preventing non-white conservatives from voting Republican diminish. Self-perpetuating process: discovering Republicans among your own group weakens stigma further.

What is the UK "Red Wall" parallel Burn-Murdoch mentions?

Communities in northern England (identified by pollster James Kanagasooriam) with conservative demographics and attitudes but hadn't voted Tory due to "long-held sense party was not for them."

What is the main finding of Piketty et al. (2022) "Brahmin Left vs Merchant Right"?

Study of 21 Western democracies (1948-2020), 300+ elections. Complete reversal of education cleavage: 1950s-1960s, left parties (social democratic/socialist) supported by low-education AND low-income voters. Now: high-education voters vote LEFT, high-income voters still vote RIGHT. "Disconnection" of education and income effects. Created "multi-elite party systems": intellectual elite (Brahmin Left) vs economic elite (Merchant Right).

What are the three types of parties analyzed in Piketty et al.?

(1) Social democratic and affiliated: Social democrats, socialists, communists, greens, left parties. (2) Conservative and affiliated: Conservatives, Christian democrats, anti-immigration, liberals/social-liberals. (3) Other: Regional parties, independents (~7% of vote).

What is the "economic-distributive" vs "sociocultural" axis in Piketty et al.?

Two dimensions of political conflict from Comparative Manifesto Project data: Economic-distributive: Pro-free-market vs pro-redistribution positions.

What role did green and anti-immigration parties play in Piketty et al.'s findings?

Green and anti-immigration parties accelerated reversal but only explain ~**15% of overall shift**. Reversal started 1950s—decades before these parties existed. Green parties: supported by high-education voters since 1980s. Anti-immigration parties: supported by low-education voters. But traditional left/right parties also transformed. When excluding green parties, reversal still goes from -19.1 to +4.3 (vs +8.2 with them included).

How does the article by Burn-Murdoch describe non-white conservative voters?

As “natural conservatives” whose voting behavior historically conflicted with their policy views.

What is the central claim of the FT article?

American politics is undergoing a racial realignment as non-white voters shift away from Democrats.

What role do social networks play in party identification?

Homogeneous social networks reinforce Democratic loyalty; diverse networks weaken it.

What is meant by a “preference cascade”?

As more non-white voters openly support Republicans, social stigma decreases and shifts accelerate.

How does the article by Burn-Murdoch interpret identity vs ideology?

As racial identity weakens, voters increasingly vote based on beliefs rather than group identity.

What is the core argument of Piketty et al.?

Political cleavages have shifted from class-based to education-based across Western democracies.

What is the “Brahmin Left”?

Highly educated voters who support left-wing parties.

What is the “Merchant Right”?

High-income voters who support right-wing parties.

What kind of party system emerges from this shift?

A “multi-elite” system competing for different elite groups.

Why does redistribution weaken under this system?

Cross-cutting cleavages dilute class-based coalitions for redistribution.

What does Barker mean by “dealignment”?

The breakdown of stable class-based voting patterns.

Which group strongly favored Democrats, according to Barker?

High-income and asset-owning elites.

What does Barker argue about “Bidenomics”?

It failed to materially improve workers’ share of income despite strong macro indicators.

What role does capital play in dealignment?

Capital hedges across parties, reducing partisan stakes for elites.

According to Piketty et al., left-wing parties are now most strongly supported by…

Higher-educated voters.

According to Burn-Murdoch, declining racial segregation leads voters to vote more based on…

Ideology rather than identity.

According to Barker, recent elections demonstrate…

Dealignment rather than class realignment.