FSOT Logic

Suppose an embassy recently launched a campaign to promote U.S. investment opportunities. Part of the campaign involved hosting in-person seminars for local business leaders, while another part involved running digital ads on a local business news website. They were unable to track responses from the seminar attendees directly, but they observed that the click-through rate on the digital ads was far lower than is typical for similar investment campaigns. They therefore concluded that the in-person seminars likely generated limited interest as well.

This reasoning does which one of the following?

Uses a measured result from one format to infer the likely result of an unmeasured format..

During a cholera outbreak in Country X, a U.S. embassy initiated a health information campaign using printed pamphlets translated into local languages. Despite rapid and wide distribution, the outbreak worsened, and it was later discovered that many recipients were illiterate or mistrusted printed materials from foreign sources. A subsequent review by the State Department found that traditional print-based health messaging, commonly used in prior health emergencies, failed to engage critical segments of the population. As a result, new public health outreach guidelines prioritized the use of trusted community intermediaries and culturally attuned verbal messaging in future crisis communications.

Which one of the following statements can be properly inferred from the passage?

Traditional print-based methods were previously relied upon, but may not be effective for all populations..

Suppose an officer said "Political instability does not necessarily reduce the effectiveness of U.S. public diplomacy. Some countries experiencing major unrest have hosted highly successful American cultural and educational exchange programs. Meanwhile, in some politically stable nations, public diplomacy efforts have had little to no measurable impact."

The reasoning in the officer's argument is flawed because it does which of the following?

Treats a couple examples as sufficient to disprove a general causal connection..

Suppose that reports prepared by budget officers at large embassies often include detailed expenditure forecasts and risk assessments. A recent financial report from an embassy contains both detailed forecasts and a section on financial risk. Therefore, it was probably written by a budget officer at a large embassy.

Which one of the following contains a pattern of flawed reasoning most similar to that in the argument above?

Many high-level procurement reports contain legal disclaimers, so any report with a disclaimer was probably a high-level procurement report..

Seating Arrangement

Four diplomats (A, B, C, D) are seated around a circular table.

• A is not seated next to B.

• C is seated directly across from D.

• D is to the immediate right of A.

Question: Which diplomat must be seated between B and C?

None; it depends on starting position

Logical Deduction

If:

• All ambassadors are diplomats.

• Some diplomats are not negotiators.

• All negotiators attend summits.

Question: Which conclusion is valid?

Some diplomats may not attend summits

Order Puzzle

Five speeches are scheduled: Trade, Security, Climate, Technology, and Human Rights.

• Trade must occur before Security.

• Technology must be after Climate.

• Human Rights must be last.

Question: Which of the following could be the correct order?

Trade → Security → Climate → Technology → Human Rights

Critical Reasoning

“If economic sanctions weaken a country’s economy, then political pressure on its leaders will increase. In Country X, sanctions have been applied, but political pressure has not increased.”

Question: Which is the best explanation?

Sanctions were ineffective

Matching Puzzle

Three ambassadors (from France, Japan, and Brazil) are each presenting on one topic (Trade, Security, Environment).

• The Japanese ambassador is not presenting on Trade.

• The Brazilian ambassador is presenting on Environment.

Question: Who must be presenting on Trade?

French ambassador

Logic with Numbers

In a delegation of 30 diplomats:

• 18 speak French

• 12 speak Spanish

• 8 speak both French and Spanish

Question: How many diplomats speak neither French nor Spanish?

2

Deductive Reasoning

If:

• No treaties are informal agreements.

• All protocols are treaties.

Question: Which statement must be true?

No protocols are informal agreements.

Seating Puzzle

Five envoys (A, B, C, D, E) are sitting in a row facing forward.

• A is not next to C.

• D is to the immediate left of E.

• B is seated at one end.

Question: Which arrangement is possible?

B–D–E–A–C

Logical Equivalence

Statement: “If the embassy closes, then security is increased.”

Which is logically equivalent?

If security is not increased, then the embassy does not close.

Flashcard 58 — Data Sufficiency

How many languages are spoken in the delegation?

1. There are 12 delegates, each speaks at least one language.

2. 6 speak only English, 4 speak only Spanish, 2 speak both.

Question: Are the statements sufficient?

2 alone is sufficient

Flashcard 59 — Analytical Puzzle

Three policy proposals (X, Y, Z) are ranked.

• If X is ranked above Y, then Z must be last.

• Z is not last.

Question: Which must be true?

Y is ranked above X

Flashcard 60 — Syllogism

All consulates are diplomatic missions.

Some diplomatic missions are not embassies.

No embassy is a consulate.

Question: Which conclusion follows?

No consulate is an embassy

Conditional Chain

If A ⇒ B and B ⇒ C, and A is true, which must be true?

C is true

Binary Assignment Puzzle

Four countries (W, X, Y, Z) each either accept or reject a resolution. You know:

• At least one country accepts.

• If W accepts then X rejects.

• Y accepts only if Z accepts.
  Which scenario is impossible?

W accepts, X accepts, Y rejects, Z rejects

Mini Venn Problem

In a conference: 20 delegates; 12 speak English, 9 speak French, 5 speak both English & French. How many speak only English?

7

Ordering with Constraints

Six presenters (1–6). Constraints: 1 before 3; 4 immediately after 2; 6 must be last. Which schedule is possible?

2,4,1,3,5,6

Strength of Conclusion (Critical Reasoning)

Argument: “Country A increased tariffs; its imports declined. Therefore, tariffs always reduce imports.”

What’s the best critique?

The conclusion confuses correlation with causation; other factors could reduce imports.

Numeric Logic / Rate Problem

A translation team can translate a memo in 4 hours. Two identical teams (same rate) working together will finish in:

2 hours

Grouping Puzzle (Exact Counts)

Seven delegates must be assigned to 3 committees: A (3 members), B (2 members), C (2 members). Alice and Ben refuse to be on the same committee. If Alice is on A, could Ben also be on A?

Yes, if Ben replaces someone

Syllogistic Logic (Quantifiers)

Premises: All X are Y. Some Y are Z. Which follows?

Some X may be Z

Probability / Simple

A bag contains 3 red and 2 blue ballots. One ballot drawn at random. Probability it is red?

3/5

Logic Grid (Matching)

Three ambassadors (P, Q, R) represent countries (U, V, W) and arrived in different months (Jan, Feb, Mar). Clues: P is not from U; Q arrived in Feb; ambassador from V arrived after ambassador from U. If Q is from V, who arrived in Jan?

Ambassador P

Conditional Negation

Statement: “If policy X is implemented, then unrest will decrease.” Which contrapositive is logically equivalent?

If unrest does not decrease, then policy X was not implemented.

Multi-step Reasoning (Scenario)

A mission requires 3 approvals (Legal, Budget, Security). Approval order can be any, but Legal must occur before Security. If there are 6 possible orders in total, how many orders violate Legal-before-Security?

3

Logical Consistency

If “All ambassadors are diplomats” and “Some diplomats are not ambassadors,” which is true?

Some diplomats are not ambassadors

Order Constraint

Four reports (A, B, C, D) must be filed. Rules: A before B, C after D, D not last. Which sequence is valid?

A, D, B, C

Weakening an Argument

Claim: “Raising interest rates always lowers inflation.”

Which most weakens?

Evidence of one country where higher rates coincided with rising inflation

Matching Puzzle: Three delegates (X, Y, Z) each speak one language: French, Spanish, German. Clues:

• X does not speak Spanish.

• Y does not speak German.

• Z does not speak French.
  Who speaks German?

X

Inference: Premises: “If it rains, the conference will move indoors.” “The conference did not move indoors.” What follows?

It did not rain

Data Sufficiency Style

What is x?

(1) x + y = 10

(2) y = 4

Both statements together sufficient

Probability

Two dice rolled. Probability of sum = 7?

1/6

Logic Chain Puzzle: If Country A joins the alliance, Country B will leave. If Country B leaves, Country C will not provide funding. Country A joined. What happens?

B leaves, C withholds funding

Syllogism: All trade agreements involve negotiations. Some negotiations are successful. Therefore:

Some trade agreements are successful

Seating Puzzle: Five diplomats sit around a table. A cannot sit next to B. If B is between C and D, who cannot sit next to A?

B

Strengthen the Argument: Claim: “Providing microloans increases women’s participation in local economies.” Which strengthens most?

Study shows women with microloans started more small businesses

Critical Flaw: Statement: “Country X grew by 6% last year; therefore, it will grow 6% every year.” What’s the flaw?

Assumes one year’s growth guarantees future growth

Trade Agreement Logic: Premise: If the U.S. signs a bilateral trade agreement with Country X, then tariffs on agricultural goods will fall. The U.S. did not reduce tariffs on agriculture. What follows?

The trade agreement was not signed

Data Interpretation

U.S. exports to Asia rose from $300B to $450B in 5 years. What’s the compound annual growth rate (CAGR)?

About 8%

State Dept. Trade Negotiation Puzzle: The U.S. offers Country A three concessions: tariff reduction, technology sharing, and military aid. Country A will only accept two of the three. If technology sharing is rejected, which two remain?

Tariff + military aid

Weakening an Argument: Claim: “Joining the WTO always boosts a country’s exports.”

Which most weakens?

Data showing several WTO members experienced export declines

Trade Sanctions Logic: If sanctions reduce exports by 40% and GDP by 10%, which conclusion follows?

Sanctions directly cause GDP to shrink

U.S. Trade Deficit Puzzle: In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit was $800B. If exports = $2.5T, what were imports?

$3.3T

Strengthen Argument

Claim: “Regional trade agreements can sometimes undermine U.S. influence in global trade.”

Which strengthens?

Evidence that Asia-Pacific nations lowered tariffs without U.S. involvement

Trade Diversion Logic: Premise: If U.S. imposes steel tariffs, imports shift from China to Brazil. In 2022, Brazil’s exports to the U.S. surged. What follows?

Brazil filled the market gap

Quantitative Trade Puzzle

U.S. exports to EU: $350B. Imports: $500B. Trade balance?

–$150B

Logic of Tariffs: If tariffs protect domestic industries but raise consumer prices, which is logically valid?

Tariffs involve trade-offs

Treaty Ratification Logic: The U.S. signs a free trade deal, but it cannot enter into force unless two-thirds of the Senate approves. Which is valid?

Senate approval is necessary for enforcement

Statistical Inference: U.S. exports to Latin America rose 20%, while imports rose 30%. Which is true?

U.S. trade deficit with Latin America widened

Historical Tariff Logic: In 1930, the U.S. passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, raising tariffs on 20,000 imports. Exports collapsed by nearly 60% in the next two years.

Question: Which logical inference is strongest?

High tariffs contributed to a contraction in global trade

NAFTA/USMCA Puzzle

NAFTA (1994) eliminated most tariffs among U.S., Canada, Mexico. In 2020, it was replaced by USMCA, adding stricter auto labor rules and digital trade protections.

If Mexican wages stay low, which industry faces greatest compliance pressure?

Automobiles

WTO Case Reasoning: China joined WTO in 2001. The U.S. argued that China’s subsidies distorted steel exports. If WTO rules require “demonstrated injury” to domestic producers, which evidence best supports the U.S. case?

Rising U.S. steel imports and bankruptcies

Trade Sanctions Logic Puzzle: In 2018, U.S. sanctions cut Iran’s oil exports from 2.5M barrels/day to under 1M. If GDP depends 40% on oil exports, which outcome is most logical?

Iran’s GDP contracted significantly

TPP Withdrawal Puzzle: The U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017. Remaining members signed CPTPP, lowering tariffs among themselves. What is the most logical consequence?

U.S. exporters faced relatively higher barriers

Analytical Trade Balance: In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit surged, leading to the Plaza Accord (U.S., Japan, West Germany, France, UK) to depreciate the U.S. dollar. What was the intended effect?

Make U.S. exports cheaper

Export Controls Puzzle

The U.S. restricts advanced semiconductor exports to China for national security reasons. If these restrictions persist, which long-term economic logic is most plausible?

China accelerates domestic semiconductor development

Statistical Reasoning (Modern Trade): U.S. goods exports in 2022: ~$2.1T. Imports: ~$3.3T. Services exports: ~$900B.

What is the U.S. overall trade balance?

–$1.2T

Embargo Logic (Cuba): The U.S. embargo on Cuba (1960–present) restricts most trade. Which inference is most logically valid?

Embargo constrained Cuban access to U.S. goods

Currency & Trade Puzzle: If the U.S. dollar strengthens 20% relative to the euro, what’s the most likely effect on U.S.-EU trade?

U.S. exports to EU decrease

Logic of Tariff Retaliation: U.S. imposes tariffs on EU steel. EU retaliates with tariffs on U.S. motorcycles and bourbon. Which reasoning explains this strategy?

Target politically sensitive U.S. industries

NAFTA Supply Chain Logic: An auto part crosses the U.S.-Mexico border eight times before final assembly. Under NAFTA/USMCA, tariffs are zero if regional content thresholds are met. Which principle does this illustrate?

Target politically sensitive U.S. industries

NAFTA Supply Chain Logic: An auto part crosses the U.S.-Mexico border eight times before final assembly. Under NAFTA/USMCA, tariffs are zero if regional content thresholds are met. Which principle does this illustrate?

Integrated supply chains