Perception of and Human Response to Hazards (Models too) - Owen Shepherd

Type of Risk Perception

Fear, Adaptionist, Fatalistic

Fear

People feel vulnerable. May relocate

Adaptionist

People understand that they can prepare and survive through:

Prediction, preparation and protection

Fatalistic

People accept that losses are inevitable

They don’t take any action

Heavily linked to religious beliefs

Factors that influence perception

Wealth, Religion, Education, Past Experience, Personality

Wealth

People and their survival plans are backed by capital.

Investment to protect themselves.

Poor means more vulnerable

Religion

People assess risk differently due to their beliefs.

Link to fatalistic ideals, especially if living on Sacred, Holy or important ground.

Education

People are better informed about the risk, can make a more justified decision.

Past experience

Very prominent in old people. ‘Hasn’t killed me yet’.

People believe they have lived through it before and know how to act.

This lowers risk perception

Personality

Values and personal decisions affect decisions around personal safety.

More prominent factors in HIC

Wealth

Education

Agency and understanding of the event lowers risk perception

Prominent factors in a LIC

Past experience - elderly

Religion

Strong sense of community can lower risk perception.

Success of response to hazard depends on

Characteristics of Hazard (Magnitude, Frequency)

Level of development and planned response

3M, 3P, 3R in hazard response?

Modify: Risk, Vulnerability, Loss

Prediction, Prevention, Protection

Relief, Rehabilitation, Reconstruction

Group these:

Risk, Protection, Relief

All work to mitigate the hazard and its impacts

Group 2

Vulnerability, prediction, rehabilitation.

all work to keep people safe when the event happens, remove them

Group 3

Loss, Reconstruction, Prevention

All help to prevent loss of life, and buildings / structures

Park model

Monitoring the QOL change over time after an event

Stages of the Park Model

Pre-disaster, Relief, Rehabilitation, Reconstruction

Pre-disaster

QOL is normal, people do best to prevent and prepare (if aware of event)

Relief

Immediate response to the event with a priority in medical attention. Differs due to level of preparedness.

Shelter and rescue services

From hours to days

Rehabilitation

Try to return the QOL back to normal

Provide food water and shelter until this is achieved

Reconstruction

Redevelop infrastructure, crops etc

Differs vastly in a LIC to a HIC

HIC bs LIC reconstruction differences

HIC: Government funded, redeveloped to be better and more resistant and safer

LIC: People rebuild and recover the town and their land, usually it is still vulnerable and incredibly expensive

QOL change in reconstruction phase HIC vs LIC

HIC: Tend positive better and safer

LIC: Tend negative, never fully recover or QOL increase

Benefits of the park model

Models events over time - response times by steepness

Can handle multiple events

Can be used to easily compare many different responses

Can then be used to reflect on the response to the disaster

Benefit of multiple events

Multiple events and secondary events can be modelled in change in QOL in the area, helps to give a bigger picture rather than only focused on one disaster

Park better than Hazard Management Cycle?

Time based

Multiple events

Plot direct change in QOL as a result of the event / events