POLI130 Maymester

Comparative Politics

Comparison of politics in two (or more) states, or in subnational units in one state.

Putnam’s American Loneliness Epidemic

Americans’ opinions of one another have worsened over time. Plus, there’s been a loss of trust in one another.

Loss of social capital due to three main shifts: an Increase in mobility, more women in the workforce, and technology draws people away.

• This ignores new forms of engagement, though.

Mill's Method of Agreement

Cases with different attributes and similar outcomes. Looking for common elements to explain outcome.

Mill's Method of Difference

Cases with similar attributes and different outcomes. Looking for element of distinction to explain the outcome.

Independent v. Dependent Variable

Independent - Variation doesn't depend on another. Often used to explain variation in another variable.

Dependent - A variable whose variation depends upon or can be explained by another variable.

Omitted Variable Bias

A hidden variable causing two other variables (rather than them affecting one another).

Not just X->Y. Instead, Z->X and Z->Y.

Reverse Causation

When variable 1 is assumed to cause variable 2, yet the opposite direction of causation may be the case.

Spurious Results

Two or more events or variables are not causally related to each other, yet it may be wrongly inferred that they are, due to either coincidence or the presence of a certain third, unseen factor. Correlation doesn’t equal causation.

Falsifiability

If we claim something is scientifically true, we must be able to specify what evidence it would take to prove it wrong

What is politics?

"who gets what, when, and how". Harold Lasswell.

State

"A human community that “successfully” claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force in a given territory" by Max Weber

Regime

Set of formal and informal rules and norms that define where power is located and how it’s used.

Government

Set of political leaders/elites in charge of running the state.

State Scope

Different functions or goals taken on by the government. (“What does the state do?”)

State Capacity

The ability to plan and implement policies and enforce rules. (“How well can the state get things done?”)

"Brown Areas" (Guillermo O'Donnell)

Areas within an otherwise strong state where the government institutional capacity is weak or non-existent.

Size vs. Capacity

A model used to analyze the relationship between a state's level of power (capacity, Y, high to low) and its areas of responsibility (scope, X, limited to interventionist) in governance.

Four Quadrants -

I: Liberal states. United States, Chile.

II: Developmental and Scandanavian Welfare States. Sweden.

III: Somalia. Weak and Extreme Collapsed States. Sub-Saharan Africa.

IV: Brazil. Bloated and Inefficient. Latin America in the 70’s to 80’s.

Economic Development Indicators

Measured through GDP (net, per capita, growth, etc), Morality rates/life expectancy, Educational attainment, Technological advancements, and more.

Reversal of Fortunes

Formerly rich countries become poor while the poor ones grow rich.

Institutions Theory of Economic Development

Theorized by North, Acemoglu and Robinson. Inclusive economic institutions foster economic activity, productivity growth, and economic prosperity.

Inclusive Political Institutions -> Inclusive Economic Institutions -> Economic Development.

Exclusive Political Institutions -> Extractive Economic Institutions -> Economic Stagnation.

North vs. South Korea. Similar in geography but different in institutions.

Modernization Theory of Economic Development

Theorized by Weber and Rostow. Development driven by internal changes. Occurs in development phases. From traditional man to modern man.

Five Developmental Stages: Traditional society, Preconditions for take-off, Take-off, Drive to maturity, and High mass consumption.

Single path to development means disparities in development will not be persistent. This is Eurocentric and ignores timing, however.

Dependency/Structuralism Theory of Economic Development

Theorized by Gunder-Frank and Wallerstein. Core countries prey on periphery countries. Capitalism doesn't allow for periphery countries to succeed since they feed the core. Therefore, you must break away and develop internally to prosper.

Geography Theory of Economic Development

Montesquieu - Climate determines work effort.

Diamond - Climate determines technology/agriculture.

Sachs - Geography impacts access to technology and disease environment.

• Disease Environment in tropics impacts production. Landlocked countries have less ability to transport goods and receive technology.

East Asian "Tigers"

East Asian countries that developed super quickly. Had a 7% growth per year, which is unheard of. Like China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, etc.

South Korea vs. Chile

South Korea’s Automobile Industry:

• Accumulation of foreign capital and exploitation of traditional industries.

• Nurtured infant industry and invested into human capital thru chaebol.

• Promotion of competition. ISI → EOI.

However, it can’t be generalized due to different global economies, less autonomous states, and lack of effective motivation to export.

Chile’s Automobile Industry:

• Economic Problems: Limitations of domestic market, Poor management of firms, Getting prices “completely wrong,” lack of investment in human capital.

• Political Problems: Lack of autonomy from vested interests, More labor pressure.

The Developmental State

Manipulates and guides economic policy to achieve economic development (usually in a short period of time). Utilized by East Asia.

Chaebol

Large family owned business conglomerates in Korea that fueled much of its industrial development.

Import-Substituting Industrialization (ISI)

An economic policy that aims to achieve development by replacing foreign imports with domestic production.

• Restrict imports of final goods. Increase technology transfer and capital imports. Protect the domestic industry in its infancy. Export final goods.

Export-Oriented Industrialization (EOI)

Export of domestically protected manufactures to promote development after industrialization.

The Washington Consensus

Reduction of governmental budgets, Cutting public sector employment, Privatization, Reduction of subsidies, Trade liberalization/devaluation.

Dahl’s Framework for Democratic Institutions

Two key components: Contestation (extent of political competition and rights) and Inclusion (extent to which people are allowed to participate in politics).

Into four quadrants:

• (HCLI) Competitive Oligarchy - Political competition exists, but only a small elite can participate. Early U.S.

• (HCHI) Polyarchy - Most democratic form. Broad participation rights and meaningful competition. Norway, Canada.

• (LCLI) Closed hegemony - Little to no political competition. Few people can participate. Absolute monarchies/Military dictatorships.

• (LCHI) Inclusive hegemony. Political competition is highly restricted. However, many people can participate. Elections but no real competition (Soviet Union).

Genetic Model of Democracy

Modernization Explanation: Shows that over time, a democracy is more likely to be established as a country becomes more developed.

Example: England. Their development progression led to an increase in polity score.

Survival Model of Democracy

Modernization Explanation: Democracy is more likely to survive when GDP increases; countries are less likely to move away from a democracy at a certain point of GDP.

Example: U.S. has a high GDP so it’s unlikely to move away from democracy.

Dahl’s Measurements of Democracy

Right to vote; Right to be elected; Right to compete for support and votes; Free and fair elections; Freedom of association; Freedom of expression; Alternative sources of information; Institutions for making public policies depend on votes and other expressions of preferences.

Classical Explanations of Democracy

Culture - Certain traits facilitate democracy. Education, Diversity, Free-thinking, Tolerance. Certain religions are incompatible with democracy (Huntington).

Leadership - Who’s in power and what they do matters. Strategic choice: inclusion/exclusion & distribute/extract. Leader characteristics.

Modernization - Single path to development. Survival and Genetic Explanations.

Third Wave of Democracy

Challenges the classical explanations of democracy in every way. Non-protestant, non-outstanding leadership, not economically developed, plagued by ethnic divisions.

Caused by declining ideological legitimacy, economic crises, and snowballing.

South Africa v. Zambia

South African Afrikaners vs. Africans. Under apartheid.

• Colored restricted to certain areas, with less political rights. Needed specific cards saying that they can be in towns like Johannesburg. No voting rights. Social/economic inequalities.

• After protests and international condemnation, negotiations were reached and apartheid ended.

Zambia

• Extractive copper system against black Zambians by whites. A rise in oil prices destroys their economy. The IMF says it will give loans, if they have multiparty elections. Strikes from citizens help.

• 1991 first multiparty election. Leader of 40 years loses, but the new leader places restrictions on candidacy that eliminated real opposition. Packed electoral commission with loyalists.

Pacted Transition

A process where a country moves from an authoritarian regime to a democracy through negotiated agreements between elites from both the authoritarian regime and the opposition. Based on compromises and mutual guarantees.

Competitive Authoritarianism

Combines multiparty elections with manipulative practices to create an “unfair playing field.”

Suppression of rights in one (or more) of four areas:

• Elections: Falsifying results, denying opposition leaders a chance to run.

• Legislature: Selecting electoral rules to favor the ruling party, gerrymandering, adding new parliamentary bodies.

• Judiciary: Packing courts with friendly judges, weakening judicial review.

• Media: Covertly controlling media sources, censoring opposition media.

Paths toward Competitive Authoritarianism

Stalled democratization, Democratic erosion, Democratic breakdown.

Linkage v. Leverage

Linkage: The ability of existing democracies to pressure a non-democratic regime to adopt policy.

• Economic and capital flows, Diplomatic relations, Flows of citizens across borders.

Leverage: Density of organizational, economic, and political ties with democratic states.

• Size and strength of state economy, strategic objectives/foreign policy importance, existence of other hegemonic powers.

Autocracy

Rule by political exclusion. Political control is exerted by a small body of elites. Absence of power-sharing between the ruling party and competing factions.

Problem of Authoritarian Control and Power-Sharing

Problem of Authoritarian Control: Conflict between a small authoritarian elite in power and the much larger population excluded from this power.

Problem of Power-Sharing: Your own fellow elites can murder you for all the power.

Absolutist Monarchy

Type of autocracy led by a monarch who rules and reigns. Right to rule based on traditional legitimacy. Most durable type of autocracy. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait.

Military Dictatorship

Type of autocracy led by military officials (typically following a coup). Regime initiation usually due to economic crisis or popular upheaval. Most likely to transition to democracy. Egypt, Algeria.

Single-Party Regime

Type of autocracy led by dominant party that always wins elections. Regime survival based on closure of the political system or manipulation of elections. Most frequent authoritarian regime type. China, Cuba.

Personalistic Dictatorship

Type of autocracy where all power lies within a single individual, typically with a cult of personality. Regime highly tied to leader and all political positions are granted by them. Most vulnerable regime type. North Korea, Syria.

Preference Falsification

Typical in autocracies. Communicating a preference that differs from one’s true preference, often because one believes the conveyed preference is more acceptable socially.

Autocratic Survival

Repression - Reducing potential opposition.

Rents - Buy loyalty from the people you’re excluding

Co-optation - Establish legistlatures where like-minded politicans can be represented. Seduce opposition without sharing power.

Spinning - Manipulate the truth to look like the hero.

Presidentialism

Type of executive-legislative system.

• Head of state and head of government are one in the same.

• Government/cabinet selected by presidential appointment.

• Separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches.

• Fixed terms and term limits for presidents.

Parliamentarism

Type of executive-legislative system.

• Head of state and head of government are typically different.

• Government/cabinet selected by majority vote of parliament

• No separation of powers between executive and legislative branches.

• No fixed terms for prime ministers: Vote of no confidence.

Gamson’s Law

Found in Parliamentarism systems. Cabinet portfolios should be distributed among parties in strict proportion to the number of seats contributed to the government’s legislative seat total.

Implication: You don’t want more parties than strictly necessary to receive a vote of support from a majority of the legislature.

Minimal Winning Coalition (MWC)

Found in a Parliamentarism government. You want just over 50% of the legislator. Slight majority, giving as little outside seats as possible. Not all parties are required to control a legislative majority.

Single-Party Minority Government

Found in a Parliamentarism government. Comprises of a single party that doesn’t command a majority of legislative seats.

Minority Coalition Government

Found in a Parliamentarism government. Multiple governmental parties coming together, not commanding a majority of legislative seats. Has to be less than 50% of legislature.

Surplus Majority Government

Found in a Parliamentarism government. Comprises of more parties than strictly necessary to control a majority of legislative seats.

Single Party Majority Government

Found in a Parliamentarism government. Comprises of a single party that controls a majority of the legislative seats.

Vote of No Confidence

Found within a Parliamentarism system. A formal vote by which the members of a legislature indicate they no longer support a leader or government.

Semi-Presidentialism

• Directly elected president; Prime-minister elected by parliament.

• Variegated power sharing between the two.

  • Premier-presidential

  • Presidential parliamentary.

Lame Duck Effect

The period within a Democracy where an elected official’s successor has already been elected but hasn’t yet taken office, leading to a potential decrease in the incumbent’s influence and effectiveness.

Majoritarian/Plurality Electoral Systems

• One Representative per district.

• Reps chosen by majority/plurality rule.

• Encourages strategic voting and produces disproportionate representation.

Three types: Single-member district plurality, Majority two-round runoff, and Alternative vote.

Proportional Electoral Systems

• Characterized by multi-member districts (MMD)

• Reps chosen “in proportion” to the number of votes received.

Three types:

• List Proportional Representation

  • Closed lists, Open lists.

• Single Transferable Vote

• Mixed-Member Proportional Representation

Cohabitation

A system of divided government that occurs in a semi-presidential system when the the president is from a different political party than the majority of the members of parliament.

Duverger's Law / Duverger’s Hypothesis

Law - Single member district plurality systems → Two-party systems.

• Mechanical Effect: The way votes are translated into seats.

• Strategic Effect: How the mechanical effect influences the “strategic” behavior of voters.

Hypothesis - List PR Electoral systems → Multi-party systems.

Consociationalism

A form of governance which seeks to regulate the sharing of power in a state that comprises diverse societies by allocating these groups specific representation.

• Legislative elections determined by proportional formulas. Executive power sharing. Veto-power. Segmental autonomy.

Example: Lebanon. Country split by demography.

• Senate seats divided. Maronite president, Shi’a speaker, Sunni prime minister. Mutual veto among sects.

Preferential Vote

A system of voting whereby the voter indicates their order of preference for each of the candidates listed on the ballot for a specified office. If no candidates receives a majority of first preferences, the other preferences may be counted until one obtains a majority.

• Alternative vote: get over 50% by allocating votes of candidates who don’t win.

• Single transferable vote.

Civil Society

The sphere of organized, non-governmental, non-violent associations that exist outside of the state, market, and family.

• Help citizens transmit interests to state. Serves as a “school of democracy” that socializes citizens to engage in civic behavior (Tocqueville). Helps to maintain a balance of power.

Are: sports teams (non-prof), youth groups, hobby groups, labor unions, religious groups, service organizations, etc.

Not: gov organizations, political parties, businesses, prof sport teams, terrorist groups, etc.

Civic Community

Communities populated with dense civic associations and characterized by high levels of cooperation and civic engagement.

• Number of civic associations, social networks, civic behaviors.

Social Capital

Networks of mutual trust and reciprocity developed through interpersonal ties.

Uncivil Society

A set of associations within civil society that challenge liberal democratic values by promoting exclusivist ideologies or predatory practices.

Are: mafia/criminal groups, gangs, extremist groups, hate groups.

Bridging Social Capital

Social capital that links individuals across multiple categories of difference.

Bonding Social Capital

Social capital that exists among individuals within a single, homogenous community.

Ethnic Group

A group of people who see themselves as united based on a shared belief in a common ancestry and common ascriptive traits.

• Race, Language, Religion, Customs, Region.

Nation and Nationalism

Nation: A group of people linked by unifying traits and the desire to control a territory that is thought of as the group’s national homeland.

Ethnic group → Nation → State.

Kurds → Kurdistan → Turkey.

Primordialism & Violence.

A theory of ethnic identity that sees ethnicity as being “natural” or fixed, as having always existed and as defined by kinship, language, or phenotype.

• Fixed and unchanging, always salient,

• Sees differences as permanent and the root of conflict.

Problems: Categories are often fluid and changing. Hard to tell co-ethnics.

Dictator Game, Puzzle Game, and Network Game tests.

Constructivism & Violence

A theory of ethnic identity that sees ethnicity as being constructed through social and political processes.

• Fluid, made salient by actors, can be constructed and overcome.

• Exacerbated by institutional rules and state (in)action.

Problems: Hard to predict when made salient, unintended consequences.

Ethnic relations between Chewas and Tumbukas in Malawai and Zambia.

Instrumentalism & Violence

A theory of ethnic identity that sees ethnicity as a device that groups or individuals use to unify, organize, and mobilize populations to achieve larger goals.

• Identification as a strategy. Chosen to optimize other outcomes.

• Manipulated by ethnic entrepreneurs seeking to maximize power.

Problems: Ethnicity isn’t as fluid as this predicts.

President of Benin’s campaign and ethnicity’s effect on voters.

Hutu and Tutsi

Ethnic hatred and genocide. Originally caused by colonialism, both from Britain and Belgium. They painted Tutsis as higher peoples than Hutus, causing ethnic hatred. Hutu took over control from Tutsi and perpetuated violence. Neighbors genociding each other even though there was a lack of difference in the ethnic group, with cross-marrying being common.

• Ethnic hatred/fear, Instrumentalism, Institutions, International inaction.

Intercommunal Civic Associations

Civil society organizations that group individuals across multiple categories of difference.

• Less likely to experience ethnic violence.

Case of India

Ethno-religious conflicts with violence in riots. State-sanctioned violence, Muslims vs. Hindus.

• Electoral incentives encourage some regional governments to form ethnic divisions.

  • Multiple parties + minority votes → Ethnic peace.

• Civil society prevents ethnic riots in some areas and not in others.

  • Intercommunal and Intracommunal civil society groups.

Two cities: Ahmedabad and Surat. A has a history of violent ethnic riots, while S has a history of relative ethnic peace. All characteristics are the same, except their inter/intracommunal civic associations.

Intracommunal Civic Associations

Civil society organizations that group individuals within a single community.

Multiculturalism

A philosophical theory that encourages the recognition and inclusion of minority groups as a constitutive part of nation-building. Rejects the ideals of a melting pot and instead proposes that members of minority groups maintain their distinctive collective identities and practices in a more inclusive national culture.

State Scope Categories/Examples

Minimal: Defense, Law and Order, Property rights, Taxation.

Intermediate: Infrastructure, Education, Public health, Social welfare.

Interventionist: Fostering markets, Redistributing wealth.

Germany and Civil/Uncivil Society

The nazi party infiltrated civil groups to take people into the Nazi party. This mostly consisted of student, occupational, and sports groups. Increased their support from 2.6% in 1928 to 37.2% in 1932.

Case of Sudan

A complex situation involving governance failure, internal conflict, and humanitarian crises. Sudan has faced challenges related to state capacity and scope, particularly regarding service delivery and political stability.

Pres. Omar al-Bashir served for 26 years until 2018 in a brutal military regime. Protests outst Omar. SAF (West) vs. RSF (East) since there’s no predecessor.

Now the second most failed state in the world. Most internally displaced people (10mil). 50 million people in need of humanitarian aid. 750k on brink of famine.

The state as a Protection Racket

A concept created by Tilly. State as a criminal scheme where criminals extort money from individuals or businesses by offering protection from violence, property damage, or other harm.

War as State-Making

Argued by Tilly. War is necessary in state-making.

War → Extraction → State-making → Protection.

Four theoretical perspectives on Economic Development

Geography (Montesquieu, Diamond, Sachs)

Institutions (North, Acemoglu and Robinson)

Modernization (Weber, Rostow)

Structuralism (Gunder-Frank, Wallerstein)