Human population dynamics

high population projections

significantly less deaths every year and more births (constant growth rate)

medium population projections

slowing growth rate

low population projections

assumes death rate increases and birth rate will fall (slowing, then decreasing growth rate)

possible impacts of education on population

* changes status of women= decreases morality
* decreases infant mortality rate = decreases morality
* raised levels of formal employment = increases urban living and raised incomes = better access to food and healthcare = drops fertility and morality
* raised awareness of family planning and contraception = drops fertility

why do people have large families

* High Infant and Childhood Mortality
* Security in Old Age
* Children are an Economic Asset
* Status of Women (see speaker notes)
* Unavailability of Contraception

how to reduce family size

• Provide education (for children [girls] and women)

• Improve health (improves child survival)

• Make contraceptives / family planning available.

• Enhance income (not using children for labor)

Policies that Decrease Growth (anti-natalist) and reduce Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

* Policies that educate and enable women to have better economic and personal / reproductive independence 
* Mechanization of agriculture leading to increased urbanization; allowing better access to services (reproductive health, education of girls/women)
* Government pension schemes so that parents are less dependent on their children later in life
* Policies that stimulate economic growth will improve economic welfare and economic independence leading to reduced reliance on children for labour / workforce.

Policies that Increase Growth and reduce Crude Death Rate (CDR)

* Improved public health, sanitation (water/sewage) and service infrastructure __lowers childhood mortality__
* Use support of international organisations e.g. WHO (world health organisation) to support immunisation programs, or IMF (international monetary fund) to invest in service infrastructure in LEDC

Policies that increase growth and increase CBR (natalist)

CBR may be increased by giving financial incentives, including free education and healthcare. 

factors that influence population dynamics in a country

• cultural - women’s status, lifestyle choices and cultural norms

• historical - wars and disease epidemics

• religious - religious beliefs and traditions

• social - women’s status, rates of urban living, family planning and access to contraception

• political - government policy

• economic - role of children in the labour force vs education, infant mortality rate and pensions

factors that influence population

birth rate, death rate, emigration and immigration

fertility rate

live births per 1000 women of childbearing age (15-44)

total fertility rate (TFR)

 average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime

* Rate >2.2 = increase
* Rate

crude birth rate (CBR)

births per 1000 in a population per year

**Births/Total Population x 1000**

crude death rate (CDR)

deaths per 1000 in a population per year

**deaths/total population x 1000**

natural increase rate (NIR)

 rate of human population growth as a percent change per year

**NIR = (CBR - CDR)/10**

doubling time (DT)

 Time it takes for a population to double.

A population with an NIR of 1% will double every 70 years 

**DT = 70/NIR**

What factors contribute to a higher CBR?

• Role of children

• Less access to healthcare.

• Women’s status.

• Infant mortality rates.

• Access to family planning / contraception.

What factors contribute to a lower CDR?

* Income.
* Access to education.
* Access to food (balanced diet).
* Availability of healthcare.
* Water supply and sanitation.
* Access to shelter.
* Lifestyle choices

Explain how it is possible for Japan to have an NIR of -0.16%.

CDR > CBR

Why can the TFR for two countries be different, even though they have the same population doubling time?

combination of factors that affect CBR and CDR resulting in the same NIR

To have the same doubling time, the difference between CBR and CDR must be the same. However TFR (Fertility Rate) is the number of children born to a woman during her lifetime. Infant mortality is the key factor; high childhood survival means a low TFR (e.g. MEDC) can achieve the same DT as low survival with high TFR (LEDC). 

pro-natalist

promotes the reproduction

• UK, Japan, South Korea

anit-natalist

doesn’t encourage reproduction

• China’s one child policy