Social policy questions

What is hetreogenous treatment effects?

Refers to differences in the impact of treatment across indivduals or groups.

Shortly, when treatment does not affect observations the same way.

Examples of hetregenous effects in texts:

• Schäfer & Schwanda: Examines the negative relationship between income inequality and voter turnout —> this relationship differs across income groups —> stronger impact the lower the income group.

• Ansell et al. (2022) examines the effects of changes in house prices on support for local RRP - both among homeowners and renters. They find much weaker effects among renters (as expected) however this indicates the geotropic effects —> eventhough changes in house prices does not affect renter directly, they get affected by seeing the relatively decline of their community.

• Kreitzer et al., 2023: Derservingness perceptions varies across different american states e.g. gunowners.
  
  

What is compensation policy and how does it fit into green transition

• A compensation policy is a policy designed to mitigate the negative effects due to a social, economic or policy-driven change.

• Green transition is an issue of diffuse benefits and concentrated cost.

• Bolet et al. shows that compensation policies can help secure support governments in areas where the cost of green transition is concentrated.

• Bolet et al. calls it ’just transition strategies’ = combining climate policies with compensation policies aimed at mitigating the negative effects among affected workers and communities.

• Case: coal mine closure in Spain à affects both coal miners but also the whole community that is build around the coal industry.

• Method: dif’n’dif

• Show that JTS increase support for government substantially.

• To increase support for a green policy among a specifically burden group e.g. coal mine workers, it's a good idea to compensate the community (or the people heavenly affected by the policy.

 

What is policy feedback and what are real-life examples of this? 

Definition of policy feedback:

• Policy feedback refers the idea that existing policies shapes and influences

  • future political behaviour (policy preferences, voting behaviour etc.

  • Political decisions

  • Development of new policies

• Direct feedback is when individuals directly experience the consequences of a policy (and react to this)

• Indirect feedback is when policies create new policies or social conditions that influence future policies.

Examples:

• Mettler et al.:

  • The affordable care act in the US.

  • When the AFC was proposed by the Democrats it was unpopular among Republicans

  • After the adoption the act has several times threaten with abolishing it. This has been very unpopular across partisanship, especially among lower income americans.

  • Example of loss aversion à the act is now a policy that people expect.

• Generally, refer to loss aversion à it’s hard to take away or reduce a benefit that covers many citizens (bridge to path-dependency – many policies sticks, leading to drift or layering)

What is path dependency?

Path dependency refers to that past (political) decisions shape and constrain present and future (political) choices

Because…:

• Earlier policy decisions create structures and expectations

• Switching paths becomes costly

• Institutions themselves resis/inhibit change – bureaucratic resistance

Breakers of path dependencies

• Critical junctures of major crisis, events or structures.

Path dependency often leads to incremental policy change

• Layering: adding a new rule or policy on top of existing without removing it à thus changing outcome without changing the fundaments. Often in regard to restricting benefits.

• Drift: Rules stay the same, but the outcome changes due to external shifts (inflation)

• Conversion: Existing institutions are redirected to new purposes – labour union from payment to rights.

What are the main welfare state models and how do they compare

There are 3 of welfare state models

The residual welfare model:

• The state only proves some minimal welfare if everything else fails.

• Example: The US

The Selective welfare model

• Acces to certain welfare programme is contingent on the labour market – your job gives you access to health insurance.

• However, some welfare programmes are provided by the state e.g. protect against the risk of being unemployed, because when you are unemployed you are fucked.

The universal welfare model

• All citizens are entitled to welfare. Not necessarily mediated by other actors. E.g. “u get free health care, and u get free health care”

What is the difference between social insurance and welfare programs (welfare schemes)

Social insurance

·        social insurance programs are based on pay-as-you-go systems e.g. state pensions

·        financed through contributions

·        accessible to those who contribute

·        Usually mandatory payments

·        Participants pay into the system and can access it when in need (goes on pension)

·        Seen as earned right, not charity

Welfare Programs

·        Financed out of tax revenue

·        No individual payments made

·        Beneficiaries can access it when in need/qualifies

·        All can qualify, however, often need-based.

·        E.g. kontanthjælp, social assistance, housing support.

What is the difference between social investement policies and social consumption policies

Socia consumption policies

• Policies that provide services that meet basic needs

• Is levitating immediate concerns among citizens

• E.g. health care, unemployment benefits, (that is not re-education), homeless shelter, social assistance.

•  

Social investment policies

• Social investment policies aims at strengthening/create/mobilise/preserve citizens human skills and capabilities, thus increasing the employability of citizens

• E.g. childcare provision, education and active labour market policies (retraining)

What are the different aspects of energy cost and why is it important?

Common ways to measure energy cost

·        “Energy poor”: Expenditure to disposable income ratio --> 10% of disposable income on energy

·        The ability to heat your house - a dummy

Why is it important

·        Housing (un)affordability

·        Energy cost is the most volatile element in housing cost.

·        Affects both homeowners and renters.

·        Voeten (2024): Rising energy due to climate policy increase support for RRP – especially among energy poor and those with seperate utility bills. Does not change opinion on other subjects (immigration etc)

What are the key methods for measuring housing burden

Demand side:

• Housing burden: Use more than 30% of your disposable income on housing - income to expenditure measures.

• Residual income measure: How much disposable income do you have left over after housing cost, and is it enough to buy a basket of goods

• = Both DEMAND and SUPPLY side measures.

Supply side

• Local vacancy rate measure à indicates a tight housing market

• Also more local level measures such as rising rents in ones local areas (Abou-Chadi et al.etc.

What is the first and second order preferences?

These are two termes reference to different measures of policital preferences

First order preferences

• More concrete: Do you support this policy or do you support that party.

• e.g. issue support, party support, vote choice, support politiican

• “I see economic inequality, I now prefer more redistribution”.

Second order preferences

• refers to support for more diffuse

• e.g. ideological commitments support for political system, trust in institutions or government etc.

• “Am I a libertarian or am I more conservative.”

What are the different ways people participate in politics and elections. How do we think about cost here?

·        Voter turnout (Schäfer and Schwanda)

·        Support for incumbent (Bolet et al.)

·        Participation in town meetings (vocal or written comment – Incerti)

The cost of participation

• cognitive cost —> figuring out how to participate

• more like practical cost of turning up to vote, perhaps take time off, drive long distances. US example

The cost of not participating

• Several papers mentions the gap between homeowners and renters praticipation in local poolitics and how this affect the amount of housing being build

  • Incerti and Einstein et al.

What is a mediator in a causal explanation.

·        Not a moderator.

·        X has to go through the mediator to cause Y.

·        Policy (X): Government offers free job training programs to unemployed people

Mediator (M): Skill acquisition / certification

Outcome (Y): Increased employment

à if job training programs don’t increase skill, then why should it increase employment?

What is a moderator

·        The effect of X on Y varies across Z.

·        Different characteristics moderate the relationship between x and y.

·        For all of them X causes Y, but the magnitude of the effect varies.

What is NIMBYism and what its implications

·        NOT IN MY BACK YARD

·        The tendency that people don’t support construction of new houses – especially public houses.

·        Implications

o   Macroeconomic: Not enough housing —> prices go up.

o   Political implications: housing prices —> support for radical right parties.

Mostly among homeowners

What are some of the consequences of housing market inequalities?

Many papers points to housing market inequalities (rising rents, declining house prices, rising energy cost) increase support for RRP.

Housing inequality creates different inequalities

• Worse loans conditions if you live in a miniority area among minirities areas (Hwang, Hankinson and Brown)

How does electoral system matters in social policy

In plurality systems with spatial differences in inequality, meaning that low income voters are concentreted in few districts, less incentives to politicans to appeal to these voters and make more redistributive policies.

What is the limits in RCT in social science

·        Ethical limits

·        Practical and cost limits (you can’t randomize peoples’ education level.

·        Instead, you can use different quasi experimental designs that utilizes scenarios with ‘as if random’

I would have likes to randomise rent control, but not really ethical is it.  

How do we estimate the size of the welfare state

It is more difficult than you think

You could look at taxation, but this does not cover everything. Is benefit taxated?

Net social expenditure (public and private spending and the impact of tax system)

replacement rate regarding social benefits such as employment benefits.

What are NIMBY isms and what drives it?

NIMBY à the tendency that people don’t support construction of new houses

Mechanisms:

-        Devalue property by changing neighbourhood characteristics (more poor people) (Hilbig and Weidemann)

-        Gentrify area by changing neighbourhood characteristics (more rich people) (Hilbig and Vief)

-        Undeserving of new housing(Hilbig and Weidemann)

-        Just not that salient(Hilbig and Weidemann)

Drivers:

-        Homeowners

-        Noise

-        Depends on the ‘type of people’ moving in.

-        Devalue if the new commers are lower income groups as in public housing.  

-        Gentrify if the new commers are higher income groups.

What are examples of incremental policy change

Drift: Rules stay the same, but the outcome changes (because of external changes)

Layering: Adding new rules or policies on existing ones (often restricted access to benefits)

Conversion

• The nature of an institution changes

• The big top-level changes

• Union – no longer representation of workers right but more like bargain power between workers and work giver

• Or when the goal of a policy changes

Relation: Path dependency often blocks big changes. Instead incremental policy change

What are the main welfare state models and how do they compare

There are 3 of welfare state models

The residual welfare model:

·        The state only proves some minimal welfare if everything else fails.

·        Example: The US

The Selective welfare model

·        Acces to certain welfare programme is contingent on the labour market – your job gives you access to health insurance.

·        However, some welfare programmes are provided by the state e.g. protect against the risk of being unemployed, because when you are unemployed you are fucked.

The universal welfare model

·        All citizens are entitled to welfare. Not necessarily mediated by other actors.

·         E.g. “u get free health care, and u get free health care”

What is deservingness and what are real life examples of deservingness in policy design

·        Deservingness is the how much individuals or groups are seen as morally or socially entitled to receive public support — such as welfare, benefits, or services.

·        Following Findor et al. – reciprocity is key, more than need and equality

·        However, Krietzer et al. Indicates that deservingness varies depending on socio-demographic factors (across statelevel in us)

Conjoint experiment

Is a special type of survey experiment

a conjoint experiment is a survey method used to study how voters or citizens evaluate political candidates, policies, or institutions by presenting them with randomized profiles that vary across multiple attributes (e.g., age, gender, party, policy stance). By analyzing respondents' choices or ratings, researchers can estimate the causal effect of each attribute on political preferences or behavior..

What is the housing crisis (week 6)

Limited housing supply and rapid increases in housing cost (mortage and rents)

·        Demand side: Increased demand after housing because of population growth, increased per capita consumption of space and urbanization.

·        Supply side: Supply is slow, mainly because of hampering by zoning laws, unpopularity and construction laws made to entertain

How do we explain voting behaviour (week 6)

Sociological explanations à group identity and social structure (e.g. greotropic effects)

Psychological model: Partisan attachment and long-term loyalities

Rational choice and economic voting

Policy feedback

Should you include Don’t know options

Elkjær and Wleizen.

This is a discussion.

Reasons not to: forced consideration.

Reasons to: otherwise more random responses à especially for people with low political knowledge or interest.  

Most important on non-salient issues.

People with low political knowledge are more inclined to use the DK.

What is attrition

Systematic differences in the dropouts (related to e.g. treatment, group or outcome).

Difference between sign and effect generalisability

Sign generalisability

-        Can you generalise the estimates direction (negative or positive effect)

-        ‘The more the merrier’- logic. If we use multiple populations, treatments or outcomes AND see the positive (negative) results across all of these, then the sign of the causal effect is probably right.

Effect generalisability

-        Can you generalise the estimates magnitude and sign (more difficult)

-        Important to secure treatment and outcome validity.

How does economic inequality influence political preference

Redistribution vs. rrp

Usually you would expect it to increase support for redistribution.

Increases support for RRP (rising rents, declining house prices and energy costs and economic insecurity broadly)

Among high income groups, experiencing increased income inequality in local areas reduces support for redistribution.

Schäfer and Scwander indicates that economic inequality may also increase apathy among voters, especially the lower income groups.

However, something can be done about this

-        State interventions can alleviate these

-        Bolet et al: compensation policies for green transition à increase support

-        Rent control

What is the social contract?

Generally, Social contract refers to concept explaining why people accept state authority and what the state owns them in return.

More specifically, social contract can explain why people accept paying taxes and obeying the law à because of protection against life course risk.

Risks over life course à opt in on the social contract à get health benefits, unemployment stuff etc. in trace of taxes. You also adhere to some a set of norms and rules = an abstract part of.

Typically a social contracts should be seen as a framework but some places the contracts is more formalized such as in some states in the US people loose rights if they break the law.

Who gets support, what support do they receive and under what obligations