RMI2201 CH. 11 (VanBuskirk Online, Troy University)

In the GRR, there is a predominately ________ outlook for the world over the next two years. What do they expect over a decade?

Negative; expect it to worsen over the next decade

How many global risks are discussed in the GRR? How many categories are there?

34 risks, 5 categories of risl

What is a global risk?

the possibility of the occurrence of an event or condition which, if it occurs, would negatively impact a significant proportion of global GDP, population, or natural resources

What are structural forces? what are some examples?

long-term shift in the arrangement of, and relation between, the systemic elements of the global landscape

ex. technological acceleration, climate change, geostrategic shifts, demographic bifurcation

what are the 5 categories of global risks?

1. economic

2. environmental

3. geopolitical

4. societal

5. technological

What are the Top 5 Current Risks that the GRR predicted?

1. Extreme Weather

2. AI Generated mis/disinformation

3. Societal and/or political polarization

4. Cost of Living Crisis

5. Cyberattacks

Out of the top 5 current risks, there are two ________ risks and two _______ risks.

societal, technological

What is considered a short term risk in the GRR?

something that would occur within 2 years of the report

what is considered a long term risk in the GRR?

something that would occur after/over a decade of the report

What are the Top 5 Short Term Risks that the GRR predicted?

1. mis/disinformation

2. extreme weather events

3. societal polarization

4. cyber insecurity

5. interstate armed conflict

Why is misinformation/disinformation a risk?

This false information may radically disrupt electoral processes in several economies in the next two years (including the US0

it leads to a growing distrust of information, as well as media and gov as sources- which will deepen polarized views ( a viscious cycle that could trigger civil unrest and confrontation)

there is also a risk of repression and erosion of rights as authorities seek to crack down on the proliferation of false info and risks arising from inaction

Why is rise in conflict a risk? where is it currently a risk?

escalation in three key hotspots: ukraine, israek and taiwan is possible w high stakes ramifications for the geopolitical order, global economy, and safety/security

geographic, ideological, socioeconomic, and environmental trends could converge to spark new and resurgent hostilities, amplifying state fragility

as the world becomes more multipolar, a widening array of pivotal powers will step into the vacuum, potentially eroding guardrails to conflict containment

What are the Top 5 Long Term Risks that the GRR predicted?

1. extreme weather events

3. critical change to earth systems

3. biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse

4. natural resource shortages

5. mis(dis)information

what's the difference between current, short term, and long term risks

current: over one year

short term: over two/three years

long term: over 10 years

out of the top 5 long term risks, ______ are environmental risks

4

which risks do we see reappear across current, short term, and long term risks

extreme weather events and mis(dis)information

What is technological acceleration?

it is a structural force that relates to development pathways of emerging technologies

(A subset of key technologies, including general-purpose AI, is anticipated to experience significant, accelerated development over the next 10 years. Given the sheer scope of frontier development and general-purpose applications, multiple trajectories may arise. Quantum computing, for example, could allow compute power to leapfrog and, alongside anticipated benefits, rapidly give rise to novel global risks. Technological experimentation, such as brain-computer interfaces, could blur the boundaries between technology and humanity, to unknown effects)

what is climate change?

a structural force that encompasses the range of possible trajectories of global warming and consequences to earth systems

(Climate change is characterized as a systemic shift in this year's analysis because the threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures, specified in the 2015 Paris Agreement, is anticipated to be crossed by the early to mid-2030s. However, global warming pathways will still be influenced by the speed at which decarbonization takes place, and deployment of climate solutions. Degradation of environmental systems could also accelerate estimated trajectories, to the extent that they "naturally" contribute to global warming and related effects (such as the reversal of carbon sinks).)

what are geostrategic shifts?

a structural force that refers to evolving sources and concentration of geopolitical power, which in turn, influences the alignment of the geopolitical order, impacting realted alliances and dynamics, as well as the offensive and defensive projection of soft and hard power over the next decade

economic power is becoming more diffuse- reflecting changes in currency dependencies, sources of energy, available capital and size of consumer markets, concentrations of economic and military power are also highly related to technological and resource assets

while alternate futures are possible an array of powers will likely assert their dominance on the global stage in a multipolar world

what is demographic bifurcation?

a structural force that refers to the changes in size, growth and structure of populations around the world.

(the demographic divide is widening. Polarizing growth at the top and bottom end of population pyramids, and between countries and regions, will have material implications for related socioeconomic and political systems. Asia continues to dominate in terms of absolute population growth. Most countries will continue to grapple with an ageing population, combining a longterm rise in life expectancy with declining fertility rates. In contrast, Africa faces a radically different policy challenge: by 2030, young Africans are expected to constitute 42% of global youth.)

why is critical change to earth systems a risk?

thresholds for large scale and self perpetuating changes to planetary systems are likely to be exceeded within the next decade; the pace and scale of climate change adaptation efforts are already falling short, with societies increasingly exposed to environmental impacts to which they may be unable to adapt, fueling displacement and migration

nascent mitigation technologies, while attractive in some aspects, could have unintended environmental and social consequences, w implications for liabilities, geopolitical dynamics and the climate agenda

why is AI in charge a risk?

market concentration and national security incentives could constrain the scope of guardrails to AI development

adverse outcomes of advanced ai could create a new set of divides between those who are able to access or produce technology resources and intellectual property (IP) and those who cannot

deeper integration of AI in conflict decisions could lead to unintended escalation, while open access to AI applications may asymmetrically empower malicious actors

also: quantum computing - unlected billionare - novel bioweapons

human development and prosperity may stall as barriers to...

economic mobility arise from climate, technological, and geopolitical constraints

what additional risks and inequality could deeply bifurcated labor markets create and widen?

between developed and developing economies, as demographic structures and job demand and supply diverge

T/F: living standards could recede for populations suffering entrenched unemployment and economic distress

TRUE: this could radically reshape political dynamics

T/F: implementing global risk reduction measures is equivalent to providing a global public good

TRUE: this includes a free rider problem

How do we reduce global risk while avoiding free rider problem?

cooperative approaches based on the level of cooperation required

What are some top global risks addressed by national and local regulations?

(localized strategies)

1. censorship and surveillance (64%)

2. illicit economic activity (61%)

3. biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (61%)

4. inflation (60%)

5. insufficient public infrastructure and services (59%)

what are some top global risks addressed by research and development?

BREAKTHROUGH ENDEAVORS

1. infectious diseases (81%)

2. adverse outcomes of frontier technologies (58%)

3. extreme weather events (56%)

4. cyber insecurity (55%)

5. non-weather related natural disasters (55%)

what are some top global risks addressed by corporate strategies?

COLLECTIVE ACTIONS

1. labor shortages (53%)

2. unemployment (52%)

3. disruptions to a systemically important supply chain (50%)

4. economic downturn (38%)

5. lack of economic opportunity (37%)

what are some top global risks addressed by global treaties and agreements?

CROSS BORDER COORDINATION

1. biological, chemical, or nuclear hazards (84%)

2. geoeconomic confrontation (79%)

3. interstate armed conflict (78%)

4. critical change to earth systems (65%)

5. concentration of strategic resources (64%)

T/F: not a lot of risks are global in nature

false

T/F: the top global risks will change over time

TRUE

T/F: risks can interconnected

TRUE

T/F: better risk identification and preparedness is needed to improve resilience of longer term risks

TRUE