Week 17 - Weather Analysis & Forecasting

________ weather forecasting is an area that relies heavily on statistical averages obtained from past weather events (climatic data).

 Persistence

 Ensemble

Long range

 Numerical

Long range

How can a satellite "see" water vapor in the atmosphere?

The satellite is capable of sensing the wavelength of radiation typically emitted by water vapor.

It measures solar radiation reflecting off of the water vapor.

It can't see vapor; it can only identify places where vapor is condensing.

It estimates vapor based on the temperature of the atmosphere.

The satellite is capable of sensing the wavelength of radiation typically emitted by water vapor.

You'd like to plan a Christmas day flight to visit family. You have several months lead time. How might you determine the probability of snowfall occurring and potentially interfering with your travel plans?

Consult a climatological forecast.

Watch the Weather Channel to hear the latest numerical forecast.

Refer to the analog forecast published by the NWS.

Roll te dice; no one can forecast that.

Consult a climatological forecast.

An ensemble forecast is produced by:

combining the results from several different numerical models into one forecast.

running one model several times with slightly different initial conditions.

 collecting the professional opinions of a group of meteorologists.

 slightly altering the underlying assumptions of a numerical model each time it is run.

combining the results from several different numerical models into one forecast.

One commonly used way to improve a numerical model forecast is to:

statistically assess errors that the model makes repeatedly and adjust the forecast accordingly.

reformulate the model after every forecast to correct errors.

eliminate portions of the model that aren't contributing to the forecast.

simplify the model's assumptions.

statistically assess errors that the model makes repeatedly and adjust the forecast accordingly.

Long-range forecasts predict whether it will be drier/wetter or wetter/cooler than normal. T OR F

True

Infrared images provide a way to determine which clouds are more likely to produce what?

humidity

precipitation

drought

 wind

precipitation

Which of the following is responsible for collecting and assimilating weather data from across the globe?

National Weather Service Forecast Office

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA)

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

"Partly cloudy skies" is an example of a qualitative forecast. T OR F

True

Satellites can only provide photographs; no measurements of properties such as temperature are possible. T OR F

False

Geostationary satellites are usually centered over one pole. T OR F

False

Why are most weather data displayed in the form of a map or chart?

 More data can be recorded on a map.

 Maps are easier to construct than tables.

 Maps are easier to remember.

Maps display the data in their proper place, relative to other data, and allow the identification of patterns.

Maps display the data in their proper place, relative to other data, and allow the identification of patterns.

You'd like to plan a Christmas day flight to visit family. You have several months lead time. How might you determine the probability of snowfall occurring and potentially interfering with your travel plans?

Watch the Weather Channel to hear the latest numerical forecast.

Refer to the analog forecast published by the NWS.

Roll the dice; no one can forecast that.

Consult a climatological forecast.

Consult a climatological forecast.

An ensemble forecast is produced by:

collecting the professional opinions of a group of meteorologists.

combining the results from several different numerical models into one forecast.

running one model several times with slightly different initial conditions.

slightly altering the underlying assumptions of a numerical model each time it is run.

running one model several times with slightly different initial conditions.

Atmospheric observations from passenger and cargo flights are among the most important data used in forecasting models. T OR F

True

Why are some satellites described as being stationary?

They have no orbital motion.

They orbit over the earth's poles.

Their orbital motion matches the earth's rotation and stay above the same site.

They can only observe stationary weather systems.

Their orbital motion matches the earth's rotation and stay above the same site.

These satellites were placed in orbit over the equator and remain fixed over a point on Earth because they keep pace with the earth's rate of rotation.

Doppler satellites

geostationary satellites

Automated Surface Observing Systems

polar satellites

geostationary satellites

Infrared images are obtained from radiation emitted from objects. T OR F

True

The current conditions in your location are sunny with a temperature of 85°F. Based on these observations, you forecast that in a few hours, it will be sunny with a temperature in the mid 80s. What kind of forecast have you issued?

an analog forecast

a numerical forecast

a persistence forecast

 a statistical forecast

a persistence forecast

________ weather forecasting is an area that relies heavily on statistical averages obtained from past weather events (climatic data).

Numerical

Long range

Ensemble

Persistence

Long range

A farmer is trying to determine which kind of seed he should plant. He consults a(n) ________ in order to determine the length of his growing season and average rainfall in order to make the best choice.

numerical forecast

persistence forecast

climatological forecast

analog forecast

climatological forecast

The process of predicting the future state of the atmosphere is called:

weather forecasting.

weather predicting.

hindcasting.

weather analysis.

weather forecasting.

Why is the pattern of upper-level winds an important part of the forecasting process?

Rainfall at the surface corresponds to westerly flow aloft.

Surface pressure controls the wind aloft.

Jet streams aloft always lead to storms.

It strongly influences the development of surface storms.

It strongly influences the development of surface storms.

In the United States, the governmental agency responsible for gathering and disseminating weather-related information is the:

American Meteorological Service.

National Weather Service.

American Weather Association.

National Atmosphere Association.

National Weather Service.

Researchers have confirmed that the steep decline in air traffic during the coronavirus pandemic has not affected the quality of weather forecasting models that use atmospheric data collected by commercial airliners. T OR F

False

Why are most weather data displayed in the form of a map or chart?

Maps are easier to construct than tables.

Maps display the data in their proper place, relative to other data, and allow the identification of patterns.

Maps are easier to remember.

 More data can be recorded on a map.

Maps display the data in their proper place, relative to other data, and allow the identification of patterns.

Meteorologists may blend the results of multiple models and put their own personal adjustments into a forecast. T OR F

True

The primary purpose of a radiosonde is:

to compile data from thousands of automated weather stations into one file.

to acquire data about conditions in the upper atmosphere.

to report data about surface conditions at an automated weather station.

to calculate numerical predictions of weather.

to acquire data about conditions in the upper atmosphere.

The measured data displayed on a synoptic chart were all measured at the same time. T OR F

True

Only 50 nations are involved in the World Meteorological Organization. T OR F

False

The acronym NOAA stands for:

Numerical Observation Assessment Association.

National Observatory for Atmospheric Assessment.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Nightly Observation of Atmospheric Attributes.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The forecasts for local and regional weather are produced by:

National Cyclone Center.

State Weather Forecast Offices.

Weather Forecast Offices.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Weather Forecast Offices.

The word synoptic literally means:

related to weather.

of the same place.

bird-eyed.

coincident in time.

coincident in time.

Infrared imagery, like visible imagery, can only detect the presence of clouds during the day. T OR F

False

Forecast accuracy is broken down into the three categories: Short-range, medium-range, and climatic-range. T OR F

False

All satellites have the disadvantage that their orbits place them very far (over 20,000 miles) above the earth. T OR F

False

Successful short term forecasts (a few hours) can often be made using this method of prediction.

persistence forecasting

climatological forecasting

analog forecasting

probability forecasting

upper-wave forecasting

persistence forecasting

Synoptic weather maps display weather data that:

were calculated by a mathematical model.

were measured by a satellite.

were measured at the same time.

show multiple levels of the atmosphere on the same chart.

were measured at the same place.

were measured at the same time.

Sharing of weather data among nations around the world is very limited. T OR F

False

________ assume(s) that the weather occurring upstream will persist and move on to affect the area in its path.

Nowcasting

Trend forecasting

The analog method

Persistence forecasts

Trend forecasting

Infrared images provide a way to determine which clouds are more likely to produce what?

 wind

precipitation

 humidity

drought

precipitation

Despite advances in computer technology, numerical weather prediction has advanced little since 1960. T OR F

False

One of the major problems of global weather forecasting is the lack of cooperation between major world powers. T OR F

False

The accuracy of day-to-day weather forecasts for periods beyond ________ day(s) is relatively unreliable.

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