Sustainable Transitions: Past, Present and Future

Environmental economics

Ecological economics

Kuznets Curve

Club of Rome

Limits to Growth report, 1972

• Earth is finite and unlimited growth is not possible

• Limits will be reached in 100y

• Optimistic - possible to establish sustainable stability where basic needs are met

• First use of computer

UN Conference on the Human Environment

Stockholm, June 1972

• 113 countries

• Creation of UN Environment Programme

• Emergence of international environmental law

• Would later lead to yearly COP meetings with UNFCCC

• First mention of the link between environmental degradation and poverty

Earth Summit

Rio de Janeiro, 1992

• UN Conference on Environment and Development

• Start of UNFCCC and COP

• Recognizes the right of all nations to exploit resources without damaging the environment

• Common but differentiated responsibility to solving environmental problems

• Agenda 21 - plan of action to tackle environmental problems

Our Common Future (Brundtland report)

World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987

• Sustainable development = balancing environmental, economical and societal sustainability

• Decoupling economic growth and environmental degradation

• Including “the needs of future generations”

• Basis for Rio Declaration and Agenda 21

Kyoto Protocol

Japan, 1997

• industrialized countries must cut their GHG emissions by 5.2% between 2008 and 2012 compared to 1900 levels

• common but differentiated responsibilities

• US withdrew

• covered only about 18% of global emissions

Paris Agreement

2015

• limit the avg. global temperature increase to 1.5 C

• 196 parties

Policy principles for SD

• Policy integration

  • vertical - scale, local→ global

  • horizontal - sectors (e.g. energy, water, food, housing)

• Intragenerational solidarity - equity among groups in society

• Intergenerational solidarity - taking into account the interests of future generations

• Internalization of externalities - social and environmental costs included in prices

• Participatory policy making - stakeholder involvement

Sustainable indicators criteria

Specific, Measurable, Usable, Sensitive, Available, Cost-effective

GDP 

gross domestic product

total market value of all finished goods and services produced in a specific area and period 

• finished product not intermediate, needs to be sold

• only counts production, not resale or unpaid work

• = consumption + government spending + investment + net export

• nominal = measured at current market prices without adjusting for inflation

• real = adjusted for inflation

• PPP = purchasing power parity = adjusted for differences in price levels across countries (what can be bought for this money)

• per capita = per person

Lorentz curve

• shows distribution of wealth in a country or area

• Gini coefficient - ratio between perfect equality and inequality (A/A+B)

• 0=equality, 1=inequality

The Veil of Ignorance

Rawls 1971

• what is a fair distribution of wealth

• how would you design a society if you didn’t know who you would be born as

Features of environmental indicators

• representation

• simplification

• communication

Single indicator

one parameter representative for the whole issue - simple to understand but can it capture the whole issue?

Aggregate indicator

Combination of parameters - accurate but more work (time and money)

Indexes (indeces)

indicators that do not represent existing quantities, but are relative to a chose value or period in time (usually aggregate)

4 relevat actors (indicators, communication)

• sender - conveying the message

• receiver - the target group

• maker - collector of information

• warrant - guarantees trustworthiness

GNP

gross national product

what nationals produce anywhere

Anthropocene

geological epoch in which humans are the primary cause of permanent planetary change

Coal blast furnace

1709

Abraham Darby

charcoal → coal

coal was cheaper, burned hotter and cleaner

higher furnace capacity 

higher quality iron (fluid)

Steam engine

1712

Thomas Newcomen

coal driven

used to pump water from the deepening coal mines

Watt steam engine

1763 - 1775

improved Newcomen’s design

rotary motion allowing the piston to pull and push the beam

required less coal

used e.g. in textile factories

steam hammer used the watt steam engine

Steam locomotive

1804

Richard Trevithick

used in coal mines

Locomotive “Rocket”

1825

George Stephenson

stronger locomotive

Used to transport coal from the mines in Darlington to the sea port in Stockton

Reduced the transport costs of coal

→ Rapid expansion of the British railway network (1825-1850) also for passengers and cargo other than coal

North River steamboat

1807

first use of steam engine to drive paddlewheel

SS Normannia

1890

much larger

used a screw propeller

cut down travelling time

Could the industrial revolution happen on charcoal/wood?

No!

1700-1913 - increase in coal production in Britain from 3 to 250 million tons

For this to happen on charcoal/wood a forest the size of England+Wales would be needed

What explains the Industrial Revolution?

• property rights, inventions

• hard work, ‘Protestant ethic’

• innovative mindset

• cheap labor, beneficial terms of trade, population outlet, new markets

• move to cities, economic diversification

• economic and military competition

Location of coal deposits

historian Kenneth Pomeranz compares England and China (Yangzi Delta)

both experience economic growth and technological advancements

both faced wood scarcity

England had better located, more accessible coal deposits enabling it to sustain economic growth

Unique structure: high wage + cheap economy

historian Robert Allen

incentive to innovate to save on the expensive energy (wood) and labor because coal was cheap

why innovate if there is no economic need? (Boserupian argument)

Second industrial revolution

1860-1910 (or much longer?)

Started in Britain, US and Germany

coal → oil

internal combustion

electrification

artificial fertilizers

communication (telegraph, telephone, radio)

Europe + offshoots (US, Canada, New Zealand, Australia)

1990: 30% pop, 95% energy use

1990: 20% pop, 70% of commercial energy use

→ the IR is still diffusing

Organic vs industrial society

Levelized cost of energy

LCOE=sum of costs over lifetime/sum of electrical energy produced over lifetime [$/kWh]

Gielen & Boshell 2023: 5 key areas

• energy efficiency

• power systems transformation/RE

• electrification of end-use sector

• bioenergy deployment

• CO2 capture, use and storage (CCUS)

Constrains on flow of RE from source to user

years of fossil fuel reserves

coal: around 135

oil: around 50

gas: around 45

cleaner energy sources

higher H:C ratio

coal>oil>natural gas>hydrogen

Smil 2016

• national ET differ in speed

• global ET gradual, prolonged

• FF dominated world (80%)

• ET to RE driven by CC

• no evidence of speeding up of ET (has changed)

• ET so far mostly electric

• global growth of RE not extraordinarily rapid

• ET to RE gradual at best

• FF based reserve capacities needed for intermittency

• even fastest rate falls short of 2050 net-zero target

• greening electricity easier that heat, fuel, plastics and construction

• current FF infrastructure not rapidly replacable 

Fouqet 2016

how much of world’s soy is used as feed?

70-75%

What % of Dutch meat and dairy value is export?

meat: 60%, dairy: 65%

Value chain

series of steps that a product goes through with value added at each step

What % of global agriculture and food exports are traded within GVCs (across multiple countries)?

1/3

GVC governance: Market

• suppliers and lead firms interact through simple transactions

• easy to switch partners

• exchange mainly driven by price competition

• low complexity in product specification, supplier has high autonomy

GVC governance: Modular

• suppliers make products or provide services to a customer according to detailed specifications, but they have full responsibility for process technology, components and production

• the suppliers delivers a ready-to-use or fully assembled products, so  the lead firm doesn’t manage the details of production

• E.g. Tetrapak

GVC governance: relational

• firms rely on complex, long-term relations with suppliers

• high mutual dependency between lead firms and suppliers

• based on trust, frequent interactions, knowledge sharing

• firms participate actively in design, innovation and product planning

• relational ties take years to develop and can involve co-investment, training or technology transfer

• e.g. Friesland Campina

GVC governance: Captive

• independent firm that is highly dependent on a lead firm for contracts, market access and often technical guidance

• the lead firm dictates specifications, quality standards, delivery schedules and sometimes pricing

• limited autonomy of the supplier

• e.g. Nike, Apple

GVC governance: Hierarchy (integrated)

• lead firm controls multiple stages of the value chain itself rather than relying (heavily) on independent suppliers

• the firm owns production, processing and sometimes distribution

• high control and coordination

• e.g. Pepsico

Hybrid: contract farming

• between captive and integrated

• farmers agree to produce a specific quantity and quality of a crop for a lead firm under pre-agreed terms (price, standards, delivery)

• allows lead firms to secure supply without owning farms

• farmers often get access to inputs, credit, or technical support

• Farmers are dependent on lead firm for contracts, market access, and guidance on production

what % of supermarket products contain palm oil

1/3, not only in food

RSPO

sustainable palm oil certification

8 founder crops

• einkorn wheat

• emmer/durum wheat

• barley

• lentils

• pea

• chickpea

• bitter vetch

• flax

bread wheat

emmer wheat crossed with wild grass

why sedentary farming?

Andrea Matranga (2024)

• climate change - seasonality

Why the fertile crescent first?

• largest zone of Mediterranean climate

• greatest climatic variation

• wide range of altitudes and topographies

• large mammals suitable for domestication

Jared Diamond’s main thesis

1997

Eurasia - largest pool of domesticable plants and animas

Horizontal continent - easier spread of crops, livestock and technologies

Peasant based societies enhance state centralization

Proximity humans-livestock → disease environment

Columbian exchange

post-1492

Exchange of domesticated animals

Impacts of animal exchange

• bees pollinate new European crops

• worms eat forest litter (trees’ food)→ less dense, easier to clear

• pigs dig up wild tubers that Native American rely on in case of crop failure

Plant exchange

Disease exchange

When was the potato initially introduced in Europe?

1573, by sailors and missionaries

Why didn’t the potato take off until mid-18th century?

• people knew similar poisonous plants

• they didn’t like its looks and were scared they could get leprosy from it

Marie Antoinette

(1755-1793)

• gave prestige to the potato

Benefits of the potato

• high yields, high nutritional value (calories), easy to grow

• protein deficiency in cassava and maize

• maize produces fewer calories/acre of land

What % of pop. growth and urbanization in the Old World between 1700-1900 can be explained by the introduction of potato?

25% of population growth, 30% of urbanization

The Great Irish Famine

1845-1852

• illustrates the dangers of dependency on one crop

• massive population decline (deaths + emigration (North America))

18th century: agrarian change in Europe gains pace

• wider adoption of potato and maize

• increased land under cultivation → deforestation

• experimentation with crop rotation systems

• experimentation with manure (from cities)

• UK: enclosure acts, reducing open fields and communal lands → British (Second) Agricultural revolution

19th century: scientific innovation

• scientific experimentation with new food plant varieties, use of fertilizers and disease control in US, Europe and Japan

• increasing trade in new fertilizers (guano, nitrates from Chilean/Peruvian coastline)

• mid 19th C onwards: Atlantic food trade using railroads and steamships (NA wheat floods European market) → agricultural depression

• late 19th C: scientific plant breeding + invention of chemical fertilizer as it was predicted that guano and nitrates from tropical islands couldn’t satisfy future demand

EAT-Lancet Commission

• 2025

• Scientific review of what constitutes a healthy diet for both humans and the planet

Norman Borlaug

1914 - 2009 

“Father of the Green Revolution”

Nobel Peace Prize in 1970 for his contribution to the world food supply

1944, Mexico: He led a team that crossed wheat varieties to produce new high-yielding, semi dwarf and disease-resistant varieties

Norin 10 (a semi-dwarf wheat variety from Japan) was crossed with Mexican varieties

Expansion to Asia → India became self sufficient and exporting country

IR8

• semi-dwarf rice developed by the International Rice Institute at the Philippines (IRRI) in the 1960s that conquers much of Asia

• crossing between Peta (Java) and Dee-geo-woo-gen (Taiwan)

Green revolution (narrow definition)

• invention and implementation of new high yielding varieties (HYVs) of wheat, maize and rice

• 1940 - 1970

• HYVs have a higher volume of kernels per ear, on shorter stems

Green revolution (broader definition)

• complemented by new land and water management techniques

• state-coordinated programs of hybridized seed distribution

• up-scaled investments in rural infrastructure

• the spread of rural credit facilities

• intensified use of pesticides and herbicides

• global scale of agrarian growth

Increase in wheat yields in England in the 20th century

from 2 to 7 tons per hectare on average

(while it took England nearly 1,000 years to increase wheat yields from 0.5 to 2)

similar increase in many developing countries, especially in Asia and Latin America, but much less so in Sub-Saharan Africa

Why did Africa miss the green revolution?

unique ecology:

• highly variable climate

• soil heterogeneity → no silver bullet HYV

• tropical soil easily exhausted

• history of extensive farming

• more limited food storage in tropical climate

• lack of irrigation infrastructure

• post-colonial states not ready

Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD)

• EU council adopted May 2024, entering into force in June 2024

• to require due diligence for companies to prevent adverse human rights and environmental impacts in the company's own operations and across their value chains

• EU Parliament weakened directive’s scope Nov 2025

One Country One Priority (OCOP)

• Promote Special Agricultural Products

• Develop sustainable and inclusive value chains

• Strengthen partnership and capacity building

• Ensure environmental sustainability

One Commune One Product

• program in Vietnam 

• to promote local products

Responsible consumption in the UK food sector

6 Revolutions

• Neolithic (10,000 BC)

• Age of discovery (1492-1800)

• Agricultural (1700-1900)

• Industrial (1760-1880)

• Health and mortality transition (1850-1950)

• Green (1950-1980)

Neolithic revolution

• domestication of animals

• storage of grain

• traded surpluses

• more control over food crops

% increase of wheat yields in developing countries 

200% in 35 years (around 1960-1995)

20th century demographic miracle

80 billion hominids born over 4 million years

Post 1750: 28% of years lived

Post 1900: 20%

Post 1950: 13%

Environmental awareness in the early-modern period (1500-1800)

• realization that wood is a finite resource and should be used sustainably

• rapid deforestation

• philosophers’ optimism in the age of enlightenment - humans will continue to develop as long as the earth exists, population growth might reduce and the earth will be found sufficient to support its inhabitants

• Malthus! (1766-1834)

Environmental awareness during the Industrial revolution

• coal is a finite resource!

• why should we progress and sacrifice the well-being of the planet if it only results in a bigger population, not a happier one

‘Peak Oil’ theory

M. King Hubbert, 1956

• oil under the ground is finite so oil extraction will reach a maximum and then decline

• world oil production = bell curve

Dust Bowl / ‘Dirty thirties’

• 1930s

• conversion of grassland → cropland

• extensive deep ploughing displaced deep rooted grasses that trapped soil and prevented wind erosion

• period of draught in the 1930s caused severe erosion, blowing away up to 75% of virgin topsoil

• → government program to conserve soils, soil erosion research exploded worldwide

London’s great smog

1952

• High-pressure weather system
  created envelope of cold air
  preventing dispersion of pollution

• thick ground level smog for 5 days → 4000 deaths, rise in asthma in kids exposed to the smog

• → Clean Air Act 1956

Rachel Carson

‘Silent Spring’, 1962

• founder and catalyst of environmental awareness

• her book warned against the harmful effects of of agrochemical pesticide DDT in agriculture on bird and human life

• she accused the chemical industry of spreading disinformation and animal poisoning

• she provoked wide spread discussion and DDT ban in the US (1972)

Agent Orange

• an herbicide and defoliant chemical used by the U.S. military in the Vietnam War 1961-1971

• led to huge environmental damage - destroyed Vietnamese cropland and around 18% of forests, animal species etc.

• up to 4 million Vietnamese were exposed to it

• around 1 million people disabled or suffering health problems as a result

Acid rain awareness

• the term ‘acid rain’ was already coined in 1872 Manchester

• in 1960s scientists began widely studying the phenomenon

• caused by emissions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide

• transboundary pollution

Critiques of environmental awareness

• some predictions of the 1960/70s didn’t come true

• early environmentalists were too negative, ‘prophets of doom’

• arguably, economies become more sustainable once a high level of GDP per capita is reached (environmental Kuznets curve)

• scarcity induces innovation and technological progress

Clear new technology + strong landscape pressure

Technological substitution

Clear new technology + medium landscape pressure

Reconfiguration

Competing niches + strong landscape pressure

De- and realignment

Competing niches + medium landscape pressure

Transformation