Climate change & severe weather

Food security

when all people at all times have physical & economic access to sufficient, safe & nutritious food that meets their dietary needs & food preferences for an active & healthy life

Impact on yield (1)

increased global temps dry out the soil, reduce ground water resources, degrade the land & in some cases lead to desertification. Will reduce global production of staples eg rice & wheat, shrinking food supplies

(2)

Increasing droughts leading to: increased demand for water, water stress, reduced soil moisture all leading to reduced yield

(3)

Increased temps reduce crop yield, livestock products & fish species

Example:

crop yield studies focusing on India have found that warming has reduced wheat yields from 1981 to 2009 by 5.2%

Increase in the cost of food (1)

spikes in food prices after extreme events are expected to be more frequent in the future. Reduces access to food particularly in low income countries

(2)

global crop & economic models have projected a 1-29% cereal price increase in 2050 due to climate change - would impact consumers globally through higher food prices

(3)

low income consumers are particularly vulnerable with models projecting increases of 1-183 million additional people at risk of hunger across the SSPs compared to a no climate change scenario

Example

Indus Valley, Pakistan (2010-2011): unprecedented rainfall led to flooding affecting lives & livelihoods of 20 million people. In Pakistan food prices were exacerbated by economic impacts of the floods - further contributed to food related riots in 2010

Increased risk of drought (1)

decline in water availability will affect irrigation systems & food production. Drought may threaten pasture & feed supplies, reducing amount of quality forage available to graze livestock & ultimately reducing livestock populations

(2)

some fruit and veg require a period of cold accumulation to produce a viable harvest & warmer winters may pose a risk to them

Example

the Sahel region of Cameroon has experienced an increasing level of malnutrition as harsh climatic conditions leading to extreme drought have a negative influence on argiculture

increased risk of storms and flooding (1)

wind & floods cause soil erosion with nutritious topsoil being washed away. If soil is too wet, it can result in poor conditions for crops to grow

(2)

flooding & wet weather cause delays in crop harvest & a subsequent reduction in yield. Arable land will be lost due to increased salinity, groundwater depletion & rise in sea level

(3)

extreme weather events eg floods, hurricanes, storm surges & tsunamis have increased - extreme flooding could affect global distribution of food

example

the Himalayan region is experiencing an increase in extremes with farmers facing more frequent floods with ensuing negative impacts on agricultural yields & increases in food security

increased range and distribution of weeds and pests (1)

pests and diseases that affect crops are also likely to proliferate under warmer conditions, further jeopardising agricultural productivity

(2)

the altered climate may create new habitats for pests or allow them to thrive in regions where they were previously limited. Could result in increased crop losses affecting both quality and quantity

impact on nutritional content of food (1)

rising levels of atmospheric co2 reduce concentrations of protein and essential minerals eg zinc and iron in most plant species including wheat, soybeans and rice. represents potential threat to human health

(2)

while increased co2 is projected to be beneficial for crop productivity at lower temp increases it is projected to lower nutritional quality

example

wheat grown at 546-586 ppm co2 has 5.9-12.7% less protein, 3.7-6.5% less zine & 5.2-7.5% less iron

heat stress in livestock (1)

heat waves threaten livestock populations. overtime heat stress can: increase vulnerability to disease, reduce fertility and reduce milk production

(2)

climate change impacts livestock through altered grazing conditions, heat stress & increased susceptibility to diseases.

(3)

reduced livestock productivity can contribute to a decline in meat, dairy & other animal products further straining the global food supply

Timing and reproduction of fish (1)

many steps within an aquatic animal's lifecycle are controlled by temp. combined with other climatic impacts, these effects are projected to lead to a large decline in fish populations

(2)

warming oceans, acidification & changes in marine ecosystems affect fish populations & the livelihoods of those dependent on fishing. This disrupts a crucial source of protein & income for millions worldwide

Increasing acidity of the oceans (1)

world's oceans are gradually becoming more acidic due to increases in atmospheric co2. increasing acidity could harm shellfish by weakening their shells which are created by removing calcium from sea water. Acidification also threatens the structures of sensitive ecosystems necessary for fish & shellfish

(2)

human economies rely on ecosystem services provided by healthy oceans & coasts but ocean & coastal acidification threaten these services. A falling supply of shellfish is estimated to lead to consumer losses of roughly $480 million annually by the end of the century

(3)

corals may not form calcium carbonate under increased acidity & under severe acidity the coral's system can dissolve so the effect of increased ocean acidity on one type of organism can have serious consequences for an entire ecosystem including people. Approx. half a billion people globally depend on coral reef systems for food

damage to infrastructure (1)

storms & hurricanes can damage key infrastructure eg roads, bridges, storage facilities & the water supply. can interrupt food delivery & lead to food supply problems

(2)

storage facilities including grain & rice silos, warehouses & cold storages play a critical role in ensuring food security & ending hunger. Improved storage infrastructure capacity, quality & practices are crucial to reducing post-harvest loss

(3)

inefficient transportation networks limit farmers' access to larger, more profitable markets. This not only affects their ability to generate a fair income but also reduces the availability of food in rural areas, making it difficult for local residents to access a consistent supply of affordable, nutritious food.