US Elections

Fixed-Term Elections

Presidential Elections every 4 years

Congressional Elections every 2 years (Mid-Terms)

Laid out in Article II of the Constitution, meaning the election MUST take place between the 2^nd-8^th November.

Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate

Must be a natural-born US citizen

Must be 35 Years Old

Must have lived in America for 14 years

Must not have already served 2 terms of the presidency

Political Experience for a Presidential Candidate

Often have either some political or military experience

Trump became the first person to win without any experience in either politics or the military.

Major Party Endorsement for a Presidential Candidate

Often require endorsement from either the Republicans or Democrats, 3rd parties don't stand a chance.

Personal Characteristics for a Presidential Candidate

Usually helps to be a white, old, married male (unless you're Pat Buchanan in 1856).

Oddly, 3 of the last 8 republican candidates (Reagan, McCain, Trump) had all divorced (Trump 3x) and remarried.

Ability to raise large sums of money by a Presidential Candidate

Crucial! Very few candidates cam afford to finance their own campaigns, thus require money and funds before the primaries and caucuses.

Effective Organisation by a Presidential Candidate

Candidates cannot use the party's organisational structure either nationally or in each state. Must create their own organisation which is time consuming, expensive, and demanding. Failure is inevitable if the organisation isn't effective.

Oratorical Skills and being telegenic for a Presidential Candidate

In the media age, the ability to speak well and look good on TV are crucial.

FDR was never pictured in his wheelchair.

Lincoln was sat down due to being 'too tall.'

Sound and Relative politics for a Presidential Candidate

Danger that presidential elections are all style and no substance, 'policy free zone' campaigns detected quickly by voters. Policies need to be effective and relevant, yet Trump is an exception due to his 'MAGA' agenda.

How do Congressional Elections (Mid-Terms) work?

Take place every 2 years gauging success/failure of current incumbent in office, and to shake up congress.

State, Local, and Primaries decided by individual states, often occurring once or twice a yr.

Role of the States - Federal Rules

All polling stations are accessible with no gender or racial bar to voting.

Role of the States - State Manipulation

Boundaries shaped to suit parties (gerrymandering) - Texas, Florida, California (Prop. 50)

Voter ID laws

National Nominating Committee.

CASE STUDY: North Dakota (Role of the States)

No formal voter registration system and have to produce ID when Voting.

CASE STUDY: Oklahoma (Role of the States)

Tight Regulations. 2020 Green Party didn't appear on 21 states, 17 write-in, 4 no option.

Characteristics of Elections - Constant Campaigning

Many say that campaigning for the presidency begins after the mid-terms, because of the 'Invisible Primaries.'

Trumps restraint in COVID was down to economic impacts and hindered his re-election chances.

Characteristics of Elections - Individual over Party

The onus is on the candidate to campaign, not the party.

Trump showed in 2016 that money, public profile, and campaigning skills are needed to be president. His campaigning gave him a 'Cult of Personality' in MAGA, providing more support.

Characteristics of Elections - Ger the vote not change the mind

Ensure core voters to turn up (especially in swing states). Appealing to certain demographics help boost candidates. 'Get Out to Vote' is a key campaigning slogan.

Current issues as propaganda propel polls.

Characteristics of Elections - Swing States

Key States (e.g. Pennsylvania) are where most candidates spend time campaigning. 2/3rds of campaign events took place in 6 states during 2016. The earlier states hold primaries and caucuses, the faster they gain attention.

Characteristics of Elections - Money

Huge cost of campaigning for elections, 2020 had $14bn used.

A lack of funds to run an effective nationwide campaign is a handicap ruining races. Due to an absence of laws limiting and regulating spending.

Characteristics of Elections - Mid-Terms

Occur every 2 years, with all the house and 1/3 of the Senate up for grabs.

Most presidents lose ground at the midterms. (Obama: House 2010, Senate 2014. Trump: House 2016)

Senators and Reps. are unconstrained on term limits.

Many Congress members are long-term candidates.

Primary

A state based election to choose a party's presidential candidate.

Most famous state example of a Primary

New Hampshire Primary

Open Primary + state example

Anyone can vote in a primary, but have to choose either the democrat or republican primary. (e.g. Vermont)

Closed Primary + state example

Only registered party members can vote. (e.g. Connecticut)

Modified Primary + state example

Registered voters and independent/non-affiliated voters. (e.g. Ohio)

Advantages of a Primary

Enhanced voter participation

Legitimacy of candidates

Democratic candidate selection

Promotes competition

Increased transparency

Grassroots involvement

Disadvantages of a Primary

Costly & length campaigns

Complexity & variability

Low voter turnout

Dominance of early states

Polarisation

Potential for divisive outcomes

Caucus

A state-based series of meetings for the selection of a party's candidate.

Can involve meetings in peoples homes or local halls, and public declarations of votes and process of convincing each other.

Most famous state example of a Caucus

Iowa Caucus

Advantages of a Caucus

Cost-effective

Stronger candidate vetting

Engagement and grassroots democracy

Deliberative process

Rewards enthusiasm and organisation

Disadvantages of a Caucus

Low participation

Lack of accessibility

Exclusionary process

Complex & confusing

Time consuming

Limited representation

Potential for peer-pressure from strong personalities

What is the Electoral College?

51 'mini elections' where states vote on a presidential candidate and the winner-takes-all the Electoral College Votes.

Where did the EC come from?

Article II, Section 1 of the US Constitution.

"Electors will determine the president and vice-president"

The total Electoral vote, and ‘target number’

538 total votes.

Based on the 100 Senators, and 435 Representative for the 50 states.

'Target Number' = 270

What amendment gave DC 3 electoral votes?

The 23rd Amendment

How do each state get their EC number?

Equal to the states representation in Congress. (Senators + Reps. For Example:

Wisconsin = 8 reps + 2 Senators = 10 EC votes

Texas = 38 reps + 2 Senators = 40 EC votes

Electors

Individuals selected in each state to officially cast that state’s electoral votes.

They were typically long-time party activists.

Arguments for the abolition of the Electoral College

Popular vote doesn’t always mean election success (Al Gore 2000, Hilary Clinton 2016), when it does it exaggerates margins such as the 1984 election - Reagan won 59% vote yet won 97% of EC.

It also discriminates to independent/third parties which isn’t very democratic.

Arguments against the abolition of the Electoral College

Normally it delivers the ‘right’ result representing the federal nature of the USA.

Nationwide popular vote would decrease nationwide campaigning producing a clear winner.

Possible Reform 1: Eliminate electors but still count electoral votes.

E.g. Trump won Utah popular, automatically receiving 6 electoral votes.

Positives: Results would be known right away, no human electoral vote.

Possible Reform 2: Select electors based on proportion of the vote each candidates gets in each state.

E.g. Candidate who came 2^nd place with 45% of the vote, would get 45% of the electoral vote for that state, rather then 0%.

Positive: Greatly increase in voter turnout + representation of all parties in a state, encourage candidates to campaign in all states.

Possible Reform 3: Select electors by congressional districts with two electors chosen at large in each state.

E.g. Divides the electoral college votes by district, 1 per district and 2 state wide bonus votes.

Negatives: Candidates attention is more tunnelled, rather shift focus to competitive districts which would further reduce the reach of presidential campaigns, promises, and attention.

Possible Reform 4: Direct Popular Vote (eliminate the EC)

E.g. Most votes nationwide would win the election, with or without a majority of the votes.

Negative: Well over half of the population live east of the Mississippi so California’s votes would have no point.

Partnerships - Balanced Ticket

Pairing up with someone who differs from you in order to increase your broader appeal to voters, on the basis of: geographical region, experience, age, ideology, race, gender, or religion.

E.g. Obama and Biden 2008, Biden and Harris 2021.

Partnerships - Potential in Government

Long-term strategy, what will the VP bring to the White House? The focus is on governing and not campaigning.

E.g. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney (2000), Trump and Pence (2016)

Partnerships - Party Unity

Rare strategy, way of reuniting the party after the primaries by choosing a previous rival as a running mate. Doesn’t happen often due to political incompatible or harshness from the primary.

E.g. Reagan chose Bush Snr. in 1980, uniting the party.

Walter Mondale breaking tradition

In 1984, Democrat candidate Walter Mondale broke tradition and announced his running mate 4 days before the party convention - Geraldine Ferraro, 1st female VP candidate.

Republicans didn’t announce early till 1996.

Formal Functions

1. Choose Presidential Candidate

2. Choose VP Candidate

3. Deciding on the Party Platform

Informal Functions

1. Promoting Party Unity

2. Enthusing the party faithful and ordinary voters

3. Post-convention ‘bounce’

Incumbency

Being up for re-election help significantly due to having a higher level of name recognition for voters. Can boost past achievements at ‘brining home the bacon’, but not a guarantee of job security.

At a presidential level, there are very few single term presidents, and single term presidents are followed by a string of the same party presidents.

Issues with Incumbency

The key element is policy, especially on competence, trust, and THE ECONOMY.

Bush Jr. - 9/11 boosted approval rating to 90%, helping him get re-elected. But then Katrina in 2005 lowered approval ratings to 38%.

The ‘October Surprise’

News events, either deliberate or spontaneous, skewing polls.

2016: Trump’s ‘Hollywood Access’ Tape & Clinton’s FBI Investigation both skewed the polls.

Role played by the Media: TV campaign adverts

Biden 2026 - Confident, assured, ‘get on with it’, reaction to COVID-19. All American Man.

Trump 2024 - Jokey, AI usage, attacking opponents, foreign worries route, nothing about what he’ll do.

Nixon 1968 - Showed his opponent laughing at tragedies, including Vietnam.

Johnson 1964 - Morbid, bleak, yet powerful, ‘gods children’, threat of Nuclear War.

Role of televised debates

3 90 minute presidential debates, one for each main channel.

1 90 minute debate between VP candidates.

Held between late September and mid-October.

Not constitutionally mandated, yet now it’s convention.q

Media: Biden v. Trump, June 2024

1. Debates organised by TV networks, not the CPD.

2. 1st debate before the national party conventions.

3. No studio audience (disadvantage to Trump)

4. Muted Microphones of non-answerer.

But the focus was on the stumbling Joe Biden (Boosted Trumps polls) - leading to him dropping out.

Media: Trump v. Harris, Sept. 2024

Harris shifter herself to seem more open, shaking Trumps hand with confidence.

Harris made her points concise, focused, and clear. Stunning Trump and making Trump go off topic.

Harris looked genuine while Trump focused on traditional methods, similar to what he did v. Biden in June.

Some individuals shifted to Harris post-debate but national and state polls still favoured Trump.

Advertising

Designing and aiming political commercials at constitutes the main expense of contemporary presidential campaigns - grown hugely since the new millennium.

2000 = $260 million on presidential campaign adverts

2020 = $1.5 billion on presidential campaign adverts

2024 key campaign adverts from both parties

‘Project 2025’ - Negative towards Trump, from Harris

‘We are not going back’ - Positives about Harris and Negatives about Trump, from Harris

‘Dangerously Liberal’ - Criticising Harris’s ‘failed policies on immigration, drugs, crime, and terrorism’, from Trump.

Campaign Finance Rules and Regulations - Federal Election Campaign Act 1974

Made a significant number of changes by limiting the contributions that individuals, unions, and corporations could give, thereby hopefully reducing the candidates reliance on a few, very wealthy donors, and equalising the money spent by both parties.

Partially successful but loopholes would found and undermined by SCOTUS and Congress.

Equal to limits for party spending depending on number of constituencies a party is running in during UK elections. 632 Constituencies = £32 Million

Voting Behaviour in USA

When addressing US politics, the terms ‘Red America’ and ‘Blue America’ are frequently used suggesting a clear divide.

COVID-19 perfectly demonstrated the divide:

In 2020, 82% of registered voter supporting Biden said the outbreak would be “very important” to their vote. Only 24% of registered voters supporting Trump said the same.

But sometimes people vote for a person because it’s the ‘lesser of two evils.’ - E.g. Many evangelicals hated Trump but supported his pro-life stance when compared with Clinton (2016), Biden (2020), and Harris (2024)

Political Action Committee (PAC)

An organisation formed to raise money to support or oppose political candidates, legislations, or policies. Typically associated with businesses, labour unions, or interest groups. Subject to strict contribution limits and must report their donors to the Federal Election Commission (FEC)

Key Features:

Individuals can donate up to $5000/yr.

Can donate up to $5000/candidate/election.

Must disclose their donors and expenditures to the FEC.

UK Comparison - Non-Party Campaigners or Registered Campaigners but follow Campaign Finance Regulations

Super PAC

Raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to influence elections, as long as they don’t coordinate directly with candidates or political parties.

Key features:

No limit on donations from individuals, corporations, or unions.

Cannot donate directly to candidates or political parties.

Can spend unlimited amounts on advertising and advocacy efforts.

Must disclose donors, but some contributions can be funnelled through non-profit groups, making donor identities less transparent.

UK Comparison - Registered Non-Party Campaigners who work globally. E.g. Great British PAC (GBPAC)

Maine and Nebraska

In most States, the winner of the popular vote receives all EC votes.

In Maine and Nebraska, the EC votes are split across the popular vote.
Maine’s 4 EC votes and Nebraska’s 5 will be split across candidates depending on their popular vote share.

Voter Profiles - Race

Black Americans traditionally Democrat because of long standing racial attitudes towards them, also predominately in the North.

Hispanic and Asian communities are largely similar but debated - Cuban and Hispanic Southerners tend to be Republican as they don’t approve of ‘new migrants’

White voters largely Republican because of the ‘American Dream.

2020: 87% Black, 65% Hispanic, 61% Asian Americans voted Biden. 58% White Americans voted Trump

2024: 85% Black, 52% Hispanic, 54% Asian Americans voted Harris. 57% White, 46% Hispanic Americans voted Trump.

UK comparison - British Indian and White (Middle-Upper) Voters tend to lean Right (Conservatives), British Pakistani, Black, Asian, and White (Middle-Working) Voters tend to lean Left (Labour, Lib Dem, Green)

Voter Profiles - Gender

Women vote Democrat due to their stance of Women and Pro-Choice, Men vote Republican as they are more Economic and Foreign Policy focused.

2020: 57% women for Biden, 53% men for Trump

2024: 53% women for Harris, 55% men for Trump

UK comparison - Men traditionally lean right, Women traditionally lean left. Not as clear as US.

Voter Profiles - Religion

White Christians (Evangelical) strongly Republican cause of historical ties and pro-life. Non-Religious vote Democrat as they want to separate Church and State.

2020: 76% white evangelists vote Trump, 65% non-religious vote Biden

2024: Trump won across all 3 religious demographics - 63% Protestant, 82% Evangelists, 58% Catholic.

UK comparison - Conservatives have Anglican support, Labour and Lib Dem have Atheist (sometimes Catholic) support. Less influential in UK.

Voter Profiles - Wealth

Less difference between rich and poor, more down to race and region - Republicans do well with White, Rural voters in poor states like Mississippi, New Jersey and Maryland are some of the wealthiest states yet Democrat strongholds.

2020: 54% earning >$100,000 annually voted Trump, 55% earning <$50,000 annually voted Biden.

2024: 50% earning <$50,000 annually voted Trump, 51% earning >$100,000 annually voted Harris.

UK comparison - Conservatives and Reform UK get wealthy support due to low taxes, Labour and the ‘left’ get votes from those earning less because high taxes on wealthy = more support for them.

Voter Profiles - Age

Young = Democrat cause of no assets or responsibilities along with more ‘left leaning’. Old = Republican cause of assets and pessimistic. Generalised crossover age is 45.

2020: 60% <30 voted Biden, 52% >65 voted Trump

2024: 54% <30 and 49% of 30-44 (millennials) voted Harris, 54% of Gen X voted Trump. Both received 49% from >65.

UK Comparison - Conservatives get votes from Older, Traditional voters. Labour get younger voters as more support is useful. The crossover age is estimated to be 39 years.

Voter Profiles - Philosophy

Most liberals call themselves Democrats as Democrats stand more left of centre and look at issues to do with society and community. Most conservatives support the Republicans due to links with religion and maintaining the status quo.

2020: 85% of conservatives voted Trump, 89% of liberals voted Biden.

2024: 91% of liberals voted Harris, 90% of conservatives voted Trump.

UK Constitution - ‘Liberals’ tend to vote Labour and Lib Dems. ‘conservatives’ tend to vote Conservatives and Reform UK.

Voter Profiles - Sexual Oreintation

Most Americans who identify LGBTQ+ vote Democrat cause of their links with the community.

2020: 64% of LGBTQ+ voted Biden

2024: 86% of LGBTQ+ voted Harris, 13% voted Trump…

UK Comparison - LGBTQ+ vote ‘left-wing’ parties due to policies with more support for them.

Voter Profiles - Geography

Small town, Suburban, and Rural areas favour Republicans possibly because of the lack of integration and multi-culturalism. Large Urban areas are usually Democrat cause of the mixing ethnicities and globalisation.

2020: 60% who lived in towns/cities with a pop. >50,000 voted Biden, 57% of those in small towns/rural areas voted Trump.

2024: 59% of Urban areas voted Harris, Both Suburban (51%) and Rural (64%) areas voted Trump.

UK Comparison - Rural areas tend to vote Conservatives/Right leaning parties, Cities (especially Northern) tend to vote Labour/Left leaning parties

Campaign Finance Rules and Regulations - Buckley v Valeo (1976)

SCOTUS ruled that limitations on what individuals or PACs could spend either supporting or opposing a candidate infringed on the 1st Amendment.

UKSC can rule something similar, however due to ruling in Common Law they cannot overturn Statute Law such as limits.

Campaign Finance Rules and Regulations - ‘Soft Money’

1979: Congress allowed parties to raise money for such aspects as voter registration and get-out-the-vote drives, as well as ‘Party Building’ activities.

The UK Electoral Commission is responsible for enforcing the rule that donations >£500 must come from “Permissible sources”

Campaign Finance Rules and Regulations - Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act 2002

Also known as the McCain-Feingold Law.

Meant that National Party Committees could no long raise or spend ‘soft money’, Labour Unions and Corporations were forbidden from directly funding issue advertisement. Individual limits on contributions to candidates at $2,300.

UK Comparison is UK Electoral Commission regulates donations that are over £500.

Finance in the 2024 Election

$5.8 Billion (out of $17bn total) on the Presidential Race split between:

• Biden - $1.4bn (till August ‘24)

• Harris - 1.5bn (Aug-Sept. ‘24)

• Trump - $2.3bn

Where did the money go?

• Mostly on people and publicity

• TV ads on primetime, vital in swing states

• Social Media Adverts

• Online Political Campaigning surged in the weeks before the election, $1.35bn spent on Google and Meta Services.

Where did the money come from?

35% - Small individual donations
26% - Large individual donations
25% - Super PACs and Dark Money
9% - Self-Funding
5% - Organisations

Campaign Funds	Trump	Biden/Harris
Small Donors	$0.8bn (Facebook + Email)	$1.2bn (41% of total)
Large Donors	$0.6bn	$0.9bn (LinkedIn CEO George Soros, Hollywood)
Super PACs/Dark Money	$0.9bn (Oil/Energy Sectors)	$0.6bn

Finance in 2024 Election - Individual, Important States

Pennsylvania - $360mil v. $290mil: Trump won narrowly. Inflation was the key issue which hurt the Democrats. Trump targeted rural PA.

Wisconsin - $280mil v. $240mil: Trump flipped it. Democrats focused on Urban areas. Economy > Abortion.

Michigan - $320mil v. $230mil: Trump won again. Democrats had strong Urban support but Trump secured Rural MI.

Direct Democracy

A form of democratic government in which all citizens participate directly and at an equal level in voting, making decisions, and passing laws.

Used in UK and USA.

Proposition

An electoral device by which citizens of a state can place proposed laws - and in some states, proposed constitutional amendments - on the state ballot.

Only used in the USA.

Referendum

An electoral device by which voters can effectively veto a bill passed by their state legislature.

Used in UK and USA.

Recall Election

An electoral device by which voters in a state can remove an electoral official from office before their term has expired.

Used in the UK and USA.

Direct Democracy in the USA

As of 2024, 26 States have provisions for initiatives and referendums.

2024: 159 State-wide ballot measures, certified in 41 States.

November 5^th 2024 - Voters in 41 states decided on 146 State-wide ballot measures. Accepted 93, Rejected 53.

Direct Democracy at State Level - Arizona

Voters in Arizona approved a measure enshrining abortion rights in the State Constitution protecting access to abortion up to approx. 24 weeks.

Subsequently an Arizona court permanently blocked a 15-week ban.

Direct Democracy at State Level - Missouri, Alaska, and Nebraska

All traditional conservative States approved measures to raise the minimum wage to $15/hr, ensure paid sick leave, and bipartisan acknowledgment of economic concerns.

Direct Democracy at State Level - Florida

2 Citizen-Initiated amendments failed to pass:

1. Legalise weed for adults 21+

2. Abortion rights until fetal viability or protect the health of the mother.

Both failed to reach the 60% approval threshold.

Proposition at State Level

First state to include this was South Dakota in 1898, since then 23 states have included the process of proposition with the last being Mississippi in 1992.

Direct - Proposals that qualify go directly to the ballot.

Indirect - Proposal go to State Legislatures which must decide on what further action should follow with rules varying State to State.

Rules for Propositions

Filed with a designated state official

Reviewed for conformation with state legal requirements

Given a formal title & summary for inclusion on the ballot

Circulated to gain the required number of significant from registered voters^{[Varies state to state]}

Submitted to state officials for verification of signatures

Varies State from State:

• Als