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Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
A model that shows how population changes over time through stages of birth rate, death rate, and growth.
Stage 1 DTM
High birth & death rates, low population growth, pre-industrial, e.g., historical Europe.
Stage 1 Causes
Limited medicine, famine, disease, high infant mortality.
Stage 2 DTM
High birth rate, falling death rate, rapid population growth, e.g., Niger, Afghanistan.
Stage 2 Causes
Improved medicine, sanitation, food supply, reduced death rates.
Stage 3 DTM
Falling birth rate, low death rate, slowing population growth, e.g., Mexico, India.
Stage 3 Causes
Urbanization, education, contraception, smaller families.
Stage 4 DTM
Low birth & death rates, stable population, aging society, e.g., USA, UK, Japan.
Stage 4 Effects
Population stabilizes, more elderly, workforce ages.
Stage 5 DTM
Very low birth rate, low death rate, population decline, e.g., Japan, Germany.
Stage 5 Effects
Shrinking population, pressure on workforce and social services.
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
Number of live births per 1,000 people per year.
Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Number of deaths per 1,000 people per year.
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
Difference between CBR and CDR; population growth rate (%) = (CBR - CDR)/10.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime.
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
Number of deaths of infants under 1 year per 1,000 live births.
Doubling Time
Number of years it takes for a population to double, formula: 70 ÷ NIR%.
Population Policies
Government strategies to control population growth; pro-natalist increases births, anti-natalist decreases births.
Push Factors
Negative conditions that drive people to leave a location, e.g., war, famine, unemployment.
Pull Factors
Positive conditions that attract people to a location, e.g., jobs, safety, education.
Voluntary Migration
When people choose to move for personal reasons, e.g., jobs, education.
Forced Migration
When people are compelled to move, e.g., refugees, slavery, natural disasters.
Refugee
A person forced to leave their country due to war, persecution, or natural disaster.
Internally Displaced Person (IDP)
Someone forced to move within their own country due to conflict or disaster.
Migration Transition Theory
Explains how migration patterns change as countries develop; usually rural → urban in Stage 2 & 3 DTM.
Age Structure
The makeup of a population by age; affects future growth and workforce.
Population Composition
The makeup of a population in terms of age, sex, and other characteristics.
Population Pyramid
A visual graph showing age and sex distribution of a population.
Hans Rosling
A statistician and geographer who used data visualization to explain global development and population trends.
TFR, IMR, and Development
High TFR often occurs in countries with high IMR and lower development; lower TFR occurs in developed countries with low IMR.
Industrial Revolution Effect on DTM
Moves countries from Stage 1 → Stage 2 by reducing death rates, increasing population growth.
Population Policies Effect on DTM
Pro-natalist policies can increase birth rates; anti-natalist policies lower birth rates.