World Issues

What is demography? What is it useful?

Demography is the study of human populations. Governments and businesses rely on demographic data to help them predict future needs for essential services such as schools, housing and labour. It creates formulas for meeting changing needs.

What are the three stages of technological change?

1. Hunting/Gathering

2. Agricultural Revolution

3. Industrial Revolution

Hunting/Gathering

• Extended family groups lived together and depended on each other for support

• Food supplies were not reliable so there was little population growth

• Large swaths of land were needed so the Earth's carrying capacity was low

Agricultural Revolution

• Estimates range that farming settlements begin around 10,000 years ago

• The earth’s carrying capacity grew as more food could be grown per square km

• Food surpluses became more common and food could be stored

Industrial Revolution

• Around the 1700s, the advent of steam power solved the major energy crisis (manpower and horsepower

• Windmills and water pumps are used to regularly grind grain and improve food production

  • Later oil and coal tremendously expanded the available energy

• Marked transition from rural to urban life (farm to factory)

What are the two types of demographic measures?

Absolute measure and Relative measures

Absolute measures

• They are simply the number of something

• Limited usefulness

• When compared, we don’t know if each measure is large or small

• Ex: 400,000 births vs 200,000 births

Relative measures

• They relate one number to another

• Comparison is much easier

• Country A has a population of 40 mil., then with 400,000 births, it has 10 births per 1000 people 

• Country B has a population of 10 mil., then with 200,000 births, it has 20 births per 1000 people

What is the demographic transition model?

Describes the phenomenon of a country’s high birth rate and death rates changing over time to low birth and death rates. There are five stages.

Population growth

• Throughout most of history, large families and a growing population were desirable

• Some religious views: bigger families = more followers of the faith 

• Secular leaders: large population to support military and economic expansion

Cornucopian - Optimistic population growth

• Technological advancements will increase the earth’s carrying capacity

• Look at Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions

• Example: cleaner and more energy-efficient technologies are being created every single day

Bogue - Optimistic population growth

• 1960’s; Dr Bogue 

• Theory of demographic regulation 

  • Over an extended period of time, a society naturally limits its own population

• Just a matter of time before the population stops growing

Malthus - Pessimistic population growth

Catton - Pessimistic population growth

• William Catton, modernized and expanded Malthus’ views

• Introduced Earth’s carrying capacity

• It can only be exceeded at the expense of the environment

• Using non-renewable resources can help make a phantom carrying capacity - ultimately, unsustainable

• Sooner or later, our economic and ecological systems must collapse

• True carrying capacity will diminish due to a lack of resources

What is the demographic trap?

• Countries that continue to experience a high birth rate with a declining death rate = a high population 

  • As a result, high demands on food supply, medical and education services

What is overpopulation?

• Some experts believe that a Malthusian collapse is inevitable 

  • Demands will exceed the country’s carrying capacity

What is Birth Dearth?

Declining fertility rates in many industrialised countries

Why is Birth Dearth happening?

• Women are more educated

• Having a career outside of the home

• Difficult to balance a family and a career  

• Couples are marrying later

• Couples are more likely to divorce 

• Some are choosing not to marry at all 

• Access to birth control and abortions

What are Birth Dearth’s implications?

1. Family structures

2. Ageing populations

3. Labour shortages

4. Economic effects

5. Shift in world power

1. Family Structures

• No brothers or sisters, aunts or uncles, few cousins 

• Single children might find themselves overwhelmed by the responsibility of taking care of their parents without help 

• Co-workers and friends may become more family-like 

• Rise of DINKs (Double-Income, No Kids)

2. Ageing Population

• Canada will be dominated by the elderly 

• World banks predict that by 2030, the number of people over 60 will change from 500 million to 1.5 billion  

• Lots of money will go to pensions and healthcare

• Pensions used to be affordable, but now there are only 2 workers per retired persons

• Solutions:

  • 1) pension benefits could be significantly lowered, 2) Contributions from paychecks could be increased, 3) eligibility for a pension could be restricted by income 

• Inter-generational conflict could happen 

• Future workforces will be much older

3. Labour Shortages

• There has been a desire to retire earlier (Freedom 55) 

  • This won’t last long

• As the population ages, fewer people to do the work 

• May need to change to Freedom 70+ to have enough people to power our economy 

• Some shortages in core countries in fields such as: nursing, manual labour, skilled trades

• Some countries are importing “guest workers” (Germany - Iran & Turkey) 

• US economy profits off of illegal workers 

• Core countries may need to open up more immigration to make up for the loss in the job force

4. Economic Effects

• Growth occurs because of two reasons

  • People are getting wealthier and want/need more stuff

  • Population has been growing so more “stuff” is needed

• If the population implodes, there will be fewer consumers

• Not an issue now, but could be in the second half of the century

5. Shift in world power

• The Security Council is the UN’s most powerful body 

• 5 permanent members (US, Russia, China, the UK, and France) 

  • Can veto any resolution 

  • Most powerful nations at the end of WWII

• What will happen when all of these nations have declining populations? Will they lose their power?

• There could be significant growth in the economic and military power of nations outside of the Old Core

Push factors of migration

Pull factors of migration

Voluntary vs Involuntary migration

Permanent vs Temporary migration

Legal vs Illegal migration

Internal or international migration

What is Brain Drain?

the process of highly educated and productive participants in an economy leaving their home country to achieve better opportunities in other countries

Why is Brain Drain an issue?

Pros:

• Help the problem of ageing populations

• A form of economic stimulus 

Cons:

• Highly educated people will move to other countries for a better life

• Fewer people will be there to pay taxes

What is the difference between Brain Drain and Brain Gain?

Brain Gain: Rich countries will draw in skilled workers to increase their economy and will have more people paying taxes

Difference: drain means people are leaving country A to have better opportunities in country B. Whereas gain means that people are

What is the difference between a refugee and an internally displaced person?

What are remittances and why are they important?