fs4: Voting Behaviour and the Media

Factors affecting voting behaviour?

- Class

- Age

- Gender

- Ethnicity

- Geography

Role of the Media?

- Different types of media

- Media Bias

- Influence or reinforce public opinion

- opinion polls

What percentage of households had internet?

82% by 2010

When did social media become influential in election campaigns?

2015

Conservatives and social media

Spent £100,000 a month on facebook ads in 2015

What percentage of 18-24s relied on internet for information?

79% in 2015

Opinion Polls: Failure

Failed to predict Major's 1992 election victory: Boomerang effect

What percentage of people said TV had the greatest influence?

62% in 2015

Social Structures Model

People who share the same characteristics e.g social class are likely to vote in the same way

Party Identification Model

People stay loyal to one party and can be relied upon to vote for them e.g net votality remained at 40%

Rational Choice Model

Assumes voters are consumers and will pick the party which gives them personally the best deal

Dominant Ideology Model

Voters are influenced by dominant forces in society e.g media

Voting Trends

- Abstention

- Tactical voting

- Protest voting

- Party support

- Turnout

Voting Trends: Abstention

When people don't vote either through lack of interest or for political reasons, 5-6m don't vote

Voting Trends: Party Support

More swing voters since partisan dealignment e.g 1997: swing of 10% Tory to Labour

Voting Trends: Tactical Voting

1997: Cost Tories 48 seats

Voting Trends: Turnout

Great concern after 2001, fell to 59%

Voting Trends: Protest Voting

Done to register disapproval for voters normal party

1979: Turnout

76%

1979: How many seats did Tories win?

339

1979: How many seats did Labour win?

269

1979: Age?

Tories won every age category, 18-24 closest (41% to 42%)

1979: DE votes?

Labour won, 49%

1979: Key Issues

- Failing economy

- Winter of Discontent

- Tories strong stance on TUs

- VoNC in Callaghan

1979: Media?

- Sun and Daily Mail both supported Tory

- Sun switched from Labour to Tory

1979: Party Leaders

- Thatcher didn't appear in TV debate but this didn't harm campaign

- Thatcher hired 2 publicity consultants

- Callaghan seen as weak

1997: Turnout

71%

1997: How many seats did Labour win?

418

1997: How many seats did Tories win?

165

1997: Age?

Labour won 65+ vote, 41%

1997: AB vote?

Tories won, 39%

1997: EM vote?

Labour won, 70%

1997: Key issues?

- Tory sleaze scandals

- Tory divided over EU

- Economic recession

- Labour accepted neo-liberalism

1997: Media?

Sun switched back to Labour

1997: Leaders?

- Blair young and dominant

- Major struggling to control BBs

2017: Turnout

69%

2017: How many seats did Tories win?

317

2017: How many seats did Labour win?

262

2017: Age?

- Labour won 18-24, 62%

- Tories won 65+, 61%

2017: Gender?

- Women voted Labour, 43%

- Men voted Tory, 44%

2017: Class?

- Tories won AB, 43%

- Labour won DE, 47%

2017: EM votes?

Labour won, 73%

2017: Key issues?

- EU Referendum

- Labour Manifesto

2017: Media?

Sun and Daily Mail supported Tory, ran smear campaigns on Corbyn

2017: Party Leaders

- Maybot

- May refused to do TV debate

- Corbyn did public rallies, May did not