Chapter 13 Reasoning, Decision making

Inductive Reasoning

drawing probable but uncertain conclusions

Deductive Reasoning

conclusions that logically follow from premises

Abductive Reasoning

associated with invalid form affirming the consequent

Syllogisms

two premises leading to a conclusion

Validity vs Truth

validity depends on logical form while truth depends on real-world accuracy

Conditional Syllogisms

reasoning using “If p then q” statements

Valid Conditional Forms

affirming the antecedent and denying the consequent

Invalid Conditional Forms

affirming the consequent and denying the antecedent

Wason Four-Card Problem

reasoning improves with permission schema framing

Availability Heuristic

judging likelihood by ease of recall

Representativeness Heuristic

judging likelihood by similarity and neglecting base rates

Expected Utility Theory

decisions aim for maximum benefit

Emotions and Decisions

expected emotions often cause risk aversion and differ from actual emotions

Dual Systems Approach

System 1 is fast and intuitive while System 2 is slow and analytical