Reasoning and Decision Making

Deductive Reasoning

Determine whether a conclusion logically follows from premises

Syllogism

Two statements called premises followed by a third statement, the conclusion. the two statements are related to the conclusion in some sort of way.

ex: Penguins are black and white. some old tv shows are black and white. therefore, some penguins are black and white.

Categorical syllogism

Describe relation between two categories using all, no, or some

1. All A are B

2. All animals eat food

3. Therefore: All A are C

ex:

1. All birds are animals

2. All animals eat food

3. Therefore: all birds eat food

Validity vs Truth

syllogism is valid if conclusion follows logically from its two premises. if two premises of a valid syllogism are true, the syllogism’s conclusion must be true

Valid but not true statement

1. All birds are animals

2. All animals have 4 legs

3. Therefore: All birds have 4 legs

Valid and true statements

1. All the student are tired

2. some tired people are irritable

3. Therefore: Some students are irritable

Belief Bias

The tendency to think that syllogism is valid if conclusions are believable. even if it is an invalid argument, if it is believable then you will think that it is valid.

Conditional Syllogism

If p, then q; the way that it is worded makes it easier or harder to judge validity

ex: If it rains, then my run will be on the treadmill. it rain. therefore: my run will be on the treadmill

Watson Selection Task

As a species, we are better at completing the task when framed as a deontic conditional that has to do with permissions/entitlements

All cards have a drink on 1 side and an age on the other. 4 cards are presented to you with a random drink or number. which cards do you flip over to determine everyone is drinking legally

Expected Utility theory

The idea the people are basically rational, so if they have all of the relevant information, they will make a decision that results in the most beneficial result.

Common causes of errors in decision making

1. emotions (expected and immediate)

2. context (status quo bias and framing effect)

3. decision fatigue

Expected Emotions

help us make moral decisions. try to do the greater good for everyone. greater autonomic response, less likely to act because of emotions. people overestimate how they are going to feel after a decision outcomes. inefficient decision makers

ex: Run away trolley problem, hospital dilemma

emotions role in decision

often rejected low offers from humans because they became angry that offers were unfair. less angry with an “unfair” computer

Integral Immediate emotions

personal, sense of decisions immediate outcomes, expected emotions study, fast, and intuitive

incidental immediate emotions

factors outside of the decision

ex: clouds make nerds look good study

Clouds make nerds look good study

looked at weather. cloudy weather makes admissions officers focus more on academics (nerd attributes), while sunny weather makes them focus on social/extracurricular factors. nerds were more likely to get in on cloudy days

Decision Fatigue

Making decisions and exercising willpower = more impulsive or no decsions

Framing effect

More risk opposed if presented in a positive light