Population Change

How has world population changed since 1750?

1750-1870: relatively stable in both developing and industrialised =1bn people. More in developing, population is beginning to rise but at a slow rate.

1870-1950: steady increase to 2bn, biggest increase in developing countries due to improved healthcare, education on health, vaccines etc.

1950-2023: sharp increase of developing regions, growth of industrialised steadily rising. Increased child survival in developing but fertility still remains high. Today world population = 8bn.

2023→ predicted to begin to slow and decline by 2050.

Crude BR

total no. of live births/1000 per year.

Crude DR

the average no. of deaths/1000 /year.

Natural increase

difference between BR and DR.

Fertility rate

The average number of children born per women in an area, assuming all women live to the end of their child bearing years.

Life expectancy

The average number of year at birth that a person is expected to live for.

Replacement rate and level.

Show the extent to which a population is replacing itself. Measured as difference between births and deaths, or total fertility rate etc. Replacement level is the number of children needed per women to maintain population size, assuming migration is 0. Estimated half of the world’s countries are below the replacement level.

What are the two key factors in population change?

Fertility: main determinant in population growth. E.g. in Niger BR = 44/1000/year, compared to Japan = 7/1000.

Mortality: highest DR in developing countries, particularly in east Europe e.g. Bulgaria (16/1000), compared to recently developed countries e.g. Qatar = 1.2/1000/year with its improved health care system. Death rate is moderately increasing in developed countries as ageing population as degenerative diseases.

What factors affect fertility rates?

Cultural controls: political factors e.g. one-child vs maternal grants. LICs children are seen as an economic asset whereas in HICs as an economic burden. Despite one-child policy being abandoned in 2015, only children are now seen as a social norm.

Religion: Roman Catholic and Islam prohibit use of artificial contraception and abortion.

Gender: preference for male child, e.g. in rural N.India → high fertility. Status of women e.g. not receiving education, child marriage e.g. in Bangladesh 60% of women married before 18, therefore increasing fertility years.

Marriage traditions: child marriage, polygamy.

Population policies: government campaigns to reduce or increase birth rate e.g. India’s ‘one family, two children’ slogan and investment in to girls education since the 80s has successfully reducing fertility rates in Kerala state from over 5 to **1.8** in 2021.

Give an overview of the demographic transition model.

Shows how the population of a country changes over time through five stage. Shows changes in BR, DR and population change. Based on the changes that took place in Britain and other developed countries in 19thc and 20thc. 4th and 5th stages added at a later stage.

What are the 5 stages of the DTM?

1. High BR and DR as population is ‘checked’ regularly by disease, war and famine. No birth control, life expectancy is short and population growth is slow. No countries in stage 1 but few ethnic groups within the most inaccessible areas e.g. Amazonian tribes.

2. High BR and may increase marginally, but DR declines progressively. High BR reflects lack of birth control, factors of child marriage. Falling DR due to economic growth and improvements to hygiene, sanitation. Rapid population increase as gap in BR and DR widens. E.g. Niger, Mali.

3. BR starts to fall with availability of birth control and women marrying later due to economic development and education weakening cultural traditions. Smaller families and little to no child labour. Lower DR due to control of disease, improved health and sanitation. Pop growth increase but slowing. e.g. Brazil, N.India.

4. BR and DR fluctuate around a low level. Fluctuations in BR are associated with periods of economic recession. Overall stable but occasional periods of population fall. e.g. US, Canada, South Korea and many European countries.

5. BR falls for mainly economic reasons and/or DR rises again as a result of an ageing population, diseases of affluence etc. High stress lifestyles and poor diet challenges longevity of population growth. e.g. Germany, Japan.

What are the advantages of DTM?

Easy to compare countries therefore can analyse what stage each country is at and forecast how demographics will change, therefore government can help design population policies. Universal in concept, dynamic to the country and its stage in time, easy to understand.

What are the limitations to the DTM?

original design is outdated and Eurocentric (1929) and based upon changes that took place in developed countries e.g. across Europe in the 19thc and 20thc. → Not as reflective for e.g. African countries. (Oversimplistic).

Extreme poverty and low levels of development may cause lack of population growth and prevent many less developed countries passing through all stages. Doesn’t consider migration and other factors that do not fit the DTM e.g. wars and role of governments e.g. one child policy.

What are the physical and human factors that has helped it to develop to stage 4/5

Physical: temperate climate and fertile soils and low-lying flat lands therefore arable lands and reliable food supply. Steady water supply of high rainfall (low pressure). Natural abundance of resources such as coal and natural gas→ industrialisation. Surrounded by sea therefore access for international trade.

Human: compulsory education (→ low fertility rate), high female participation in workforce (70% of women of working-age are in employment), delaying fertile years. Easy access to contraception and education of contraception.

Access to good health care → low infant mortality and higher life expectancy.

What are population BR, DR and rate of changes in the UK?

Population growth is small- 0.4%, driven by migration.

BR = 10/1000/year in 2021

DR = 10/1000/year in 2021 → exactly stable, however has fluctuated in the last 20 years.

Outline the stages of Britain’s DTM

Stage 1: up to 1740: prior to industrial and agricultural revolutions, BR is high and families large, DR high due to periodic famines, diseases and epidemics. Infant mortality is high→ stable population.

Stage 2: (1750-1880) falling DR due to improved food supply, supplies from the New World. Improved sanitation. However BR remains high due to lack of contraception, persistent infant mortality, child labour.

Stage 3: (1880-1940) continued fall in DR (medical advances, vaccines and introduction of penicillin in 1929). Rise in living standard and better wages. BR falls due to little/no child labour, economic and social changes e.g. more women working, rising middle class, challenge to beliefs.

Stage 4: (1940-e2000s) DR starts to level out at low level due to NHS, reduced infant mortality. BR falls to contraception e.g. the pill in 1961. Social norm to smaller families.

Stage 5: (now) Elderly population due to baby boom. In 2021, more deaths than births were registered in the UK for the first time since 1976 (rare)- COVID related?

What is the age-sex composition?

The structure of a population showing the number of or % of males and females of various age groups. Usually shown as a population pyramid.

How do population pyramids change as a country develops

The top of the pyramid becomes wider and looks less like a pyramid and instead becomes more box-shaped as the population lives through younger ages with a very low risk of death and dies at an old age. Becomes more top heavy with an ageing population and higher life expectancy, as well as lower BR.

What are the problems and benefits of an ageing population

Problems: increased healthcare and pension costs → higher taxes, skill shortages and increased dependency ratio.

Benefits: growth in leisure and tourism industry, less unemployment, childcare and volunteers from elderly.

What are the problems and benefits of a youthful population?

Problems: increased demands for improving maternal and child healthcare, problems in provision of resources, increased numbers in education putting pressures on school intake.

Benefits: with the right governance can lead to fast growth and development, cheap workforce and growing market for TNCs.

What is a demographic dividend?

A period when the population structure of a country has a low dependency ratio. At the part in the DTM (Stage 2-3) when there is a lag between falling DR and BR. Only lasts a couple of generations and leads to a short period of high productivity.

What are the benefits of a demographic dividend?

Large, young workforce attracting investment. Workers with fewer children therefore greater disposable income; workers become consumers further attracting investment. Promotes gender equality as more women in the workforce. More spent on education, healthcare etc. bettering people’s quality of life.

Can a demographic dividend fail?

Yes- only if during the changes to population structure there is a lack of social development and failure to make the most from human resources. Good governance is essential for a successful DD and must invest in education and job creation otherwise young people emigrate.

Give an example of where a demographic dividend was achieved

Rise of the Asian Tigers.

What do population pyramids show?

The results of birth-death in specific age group.

Impacts of migration.

Impacts of war, famine, disease etc.

Indication of life expectancy.

Insight into past trends in population.

How can you calculate the dependency ratio?

DR = population (0-19) + (over 60) / population (20-59)

China’s One Child Policy

1970s China faced excessive population growth and feared mass starvation→ 1979-2013 policy.

Success: lowered BR, DR. Maternal and infant mortality reduced. Lowered unemployment rate and quality of life improved.

Negatives: reports of selective termination and female infanticides. Uneven population structure M(118):F(100)→ marriage squeeze and increased sex trafficking. Now leading to high dependency ratio as less economically active.

Reducing BR in Bangladesh

One of the most densely populated countries in the world. Legislation raising minimum age of marriage to 18 for women and 21 for men. Improvements to access to contraception, maternal health cares→ fewer pregnancy related deaths and reduced child mortality.

Success: BR fell from 6 children to just over 2.

Negatives: 2.7mn ‘missing women’. Preference for boys due to social norms, inheritance rights, varying levels of care in ill health. Excessive female mortality.

Increasing BR in Finland

BR fell from 2 to 1.5 in last 50 years. States in Finland paying up to $11,000 per baby to parents, Finnish fathers getting the same amount of parental leave, maternity grants etc.

BR increased by 7% from 2020-2021 despite COVID pandemic.