Using the source, evaluate the view that the outcomes of general elections are stable and predictable

“Evaluate the view that the outcomes of UK elections are easy to predict and stable over time”

(1) Point against my view

• The media can make or break an election

• Elections in UK are unstable up to a point, with their outcomes changing over time

(1) Example for point against my view

• Media image of Corbyn poor - anti-Semitic , presented as incapable of being PM.

• BJ’s huge 2019 win associated with his ‘Get Brexit Done’ slogan. Managed to boost vote share among leave voters to 74%, while the Labour Party reduced its share of remain voters to 49%. Fall came mainly at the hands of the LDs, who increased their vote share among remain voters to 21% compared to 12% in 2017.

(1) Point for my view

• Few seats change hands in a general election & Voting patters are predictable & constant

(1) Example for point for my view

• All 5 constituencies in Liverpool are strong Labour seats with approx, 70% of the vote.

• Before the 2019 election, the ERS predicted the outcome in 316 seats, half of all seats in Great Britain. These predictions had 100 % success rate.

• Just 79 seats switch party at the 2019 GE.

(2) Point against my view

• Large amount of swing voting in an election

(2) Example for point against my view

• Is strong evidence that class is no longer strong indicator of how people vote. In 2019 Cons. outperformed Lab. across all social grades. Did better among C2DE voters (48%) than they did among ABC1 voters (43%).

• In 2017, Labour held 72 of the 100 constituencies with the most working-class households; in 2019 this figure fell to 53 & the Cons. increased their share from 13 to 3.

(2) Point for my view

• Voting behaviour facts such as class and family background combined with area they live merge together to provide clear indication of how a person will vote

(2) Example for point for my view

• In 2019, 1 in 5 labour votes came from ethnic minority votes, whereas only 1 in 20 was for the conservatives.

• For every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around nine points, and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by eight points

• In 2019, 67% of 70+ voted Conservative, compared to 21% of 18-21

(3) Point against my view

• Opinion polls not guaranteed to be accurate

(3) Example for point against my view

• When May called GE, the average cons. lead over labour in the polls was 17%. The final result was a 2.4%, with the Cons. losing their majority.

• In run up to 2015 GE most polling companies had Lab. & Cons. within 1 or 2 % points of each other & predicted hung parl. However, on election day final count showed the Cons. took 37.8% of vote & Labour 31.2% - giving Tories margin of 6.6 % points

(3) Point for my view

• Opinion polls accurately indicate the outcome of general elections

(3) Evidence for point for my view

• In 2019, Lord Ashcroft Polls showed that 49% of all voters said that BJ would make the best PM, with only 31% naming JC and 20% saying they didn’t know, leading BJ towards and 80 seat majority.

• In a 2019 poll the BBC managed to predict the general election’s results extremely accurately. Predicted a labour vote of 33% which they subsequently gained. This strongly points towards the view that election results are predictable, which in turn suggests that they are stable.