Politics Comp 1 - (4) Voting behaviour & The Media

How does the press play a role in politics? (4.2 The Influence of the Media)

• oldest form of media = newspapers - used to be how majority consumed politics

• declining due to increasing digital and online media

• newspapers have political biases - NO obligation to be neutral

  • Right Wing - The Sun, Daily Telegraph, Times, Daily Mail, Daily Express

  • Left Wing - Daily Mirror, The Guardian

  • Independent - Financial Times

Arguments that the press is significant (4.2 The Influence of the Media)

Partisan Media and Electoral Outcomes

• Printed media influences voting patterns through partisan alignment

• Partisan bias shapes public opinion by reinforcing specific political ideologies

  • 1992, The Sun ridiculed Neil Kinnock and later claimed credit for John Major’s win with the headline “It’s The Sun Wot Won It”

  • The Sun’s high circulation and readership suggest it has significant influence on voting behaviour

Agenda-Setting and Framing of Issues

• Newspapers shape political agendas - choose issues to highlight & how to frame them

  • During 2016 EU referendum, pro-Brexit papers like The Sun & The Daily Telegraph portrayed the EU negatively

• Media framing likely influenced undecided voters and contributed to the Leave outcome

Political Campaigns and Voter Mobilisation

• Print media helps mobilise voters and build support for parties or candidates during elections

• Extensive coverage of party leaders, manifestos, and debates shapes public perception

  • 1992, strong Conservative support from The Daily Mail & The Sun may have influenced younger voter turnout

• Newspaper endorsements add legitimacy to political campaigns

  • 1997, The Sun endorsed Tony Blair with “The Sun Backs Blair” and later claimed influence with “It Was The Sun That Swung It”

Arguments that the press is insignificant (4.2 The Influence of the Media)

Declining Readership and the Rise of Digital Media

• Digital platforms have overtaken print

  • The Sun’s circulation dropped from 3.57 million in 1992 to 1.66 million in 2017

  • The Daily Telegraph’s circulation dropped from 1.038 million in 1992 to 472,258 in 2017

• Voters now rely more on online sources for political info

  • 2019 general election, platforms like Twitter and Facebook played a central role in political engagement

• Direct communication by political figures through social media has reduced the gatekeeping power of traditional media

Voters’ Increasing Scepticism

• Rising concerns about fake news - greater scepticism toward print media

• Scandals like the News of the World phone-hacking case have damaged public trust

• Voters more aware of media bias and now seek alternative, more diverse sources of information

Shift Towards Issue-Based Voting

• Voters today are more influenced by specific issues than party loyalty

  • The rise of the Green Party and environmental focus in 2019 was driven more by public movements than printed media

• Voters consider party leadership and individual candidates over media portrayals

  • In 2019, despite negative media coverage, many supported Jeremy Corbyn for his policies on inequality and the NHS

Arguments that broadcasting media (TV & radio) is significant (4.2 The Influence of the Media)

Pervasive reach and accessibility of broadcasting media

• have wide national coverage

  • OFCOM (2023) reports 70% of UK adults still use broadcast TV as a primary news source

  • Panelbase survey found 62% believed TV was the most influential source in 2015 general election

• shape political narratives by highlighting specific issues and events

  • 2010 debate success boosted Nick Clegg and created “Cleggmania”

  • Theresa May’s refusal to debate in 2017 allowed criticism from opponents

  • Jeremy Corbyn’s interview with Andrew Neil shaped negative perceptions during anti-Semitism scandal

• 2019, BBC One was the top news source (58%), followed by ITV (40%) and Facebook (35%)

• 9.4 million people watched the 2010 leaders’ debate before the election

Agenda Setting and Framing

• influence public discourse by deciding which issues to highlight

  • 2016 Brexit referendum coverage shaped views on the EU, immigration, and sovereignty

• Framing by BBC & Sky News affected voter views on Brexit

• Political leaders’ media portrayals influence public perceptions

  • 2015, media mocked Miliband’s “EdStone,” - immature

  • Labour failed to declare the cost of the stone, leading to fines and public ridicule

Impact of Political News and Personalities

• Influential broadcasters like Andrew Marr, Nick Robinson, and Jon Snow shape public opinion

• Trusted journalists enhance impact of political reporting

• BBC journalists are seen as credible and impartial, boosting influence

• Political analysis by broadcasters helps voters interpret issues and guide political preferences

Arguments that broadcasting media (TV & radio) is insignificant (4.2 The Influence of the Media)

The decline of traditional TV and radio viewership

• Younger generations prefer digital platforms & social media

  • 2019, political debate largely took place online among voters and campaigners

• Rise of alternative online sources has reduced traditional broadcasters' influence

BBC’s Impartiality Requirement

• BBC legally required to be impartial and offer balanced coverage to all parties

  • 2016 Brexit coverage included both Leave and Remain views

• Impartiality limits broadcasters’ direct influence on voters

  • Despite this, performance on TV still affects public image (e.g. Corbyn’s 2019 interview with Andrew Neil)

  • Boris Johnson skipped interview with Andrew Neil to avoid potential damage

• Critics from both parties argue BBC is not fully neutral

• Accusations of Conservative influence over BBC appointments and decisions

  • Gary Lineker’s suspension in 2023 and BBC Chairman Richard Sharp’s donation to the Conservative Party cited as examples

• Labour claims right-wing print media still drives broadcast news stories despite declining sales

Arguments that social media is significant (4.2 The Influence of the Media)

Direct Engagement with Voters

• Social media lets politicians communicate directly with voters without traditional media filters or OFCOM regulations

• In 2015, 70% of 18–24-year-olds used online sources and 59% used social media to find others’ political opinions

• Jeremy Corbyn used platforms like Twitter and Facebook during the 2017 and 2019 elections to energise young voters

• Labour’s 2017 campaign focused on tuition fees, free broadband, and NHS investment to appeal to youth

• OFCOM’s 2019 report showed 16–24-year-olds watch just two minutes of TV news per day, turning to social media instead

Mobilisation of Younger Voters

• Social media is key in reaching and mobilising young people who don’t engage with newspapers

• 2023 IPSOS study found 93% of 16–24-year-olds use online news sources

• Labour used Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram effectively in 2017 to connect with younger voters

• “For the Many, Not the Few” video was a viral moment in Labour’s 2017 campaign and shared widely on social media

Viral Campaigns and Political Activism

• Social media enables viral political movements and fast mobilisation

• 2019 election saw high engagement on issues like Brexit and climate change

• Movements like Extinction Rebellion gained momentum through platforms like Twitter

• #FBPE hashtag became a pro-EU campaign tool on social media

• In 2015, Conservatives spent £100,000/month on Facebook ads, prompting Labour to increase digital ad spending

• 2017 saw left-wing content on social media challenge the dominance of right-leaning traditional media among the young

Arguments that social media is insignificant (4.2 The Influence of the Media)

Echo Chambers and Polarisation

• Social media oreinforces existing beliefs rather than changing minds - “echo chamber”

• Users mainly interact with like-minded individuals, limiting exposure to opposing views

• During the Brexit referendum, both Leave and Remain content was amplified within partisan circles, deepening division rather than encouraging balanced debate

  • A poll for The Huffington Post suggests people tend to consume media aligned with their views—for example, Eurosceptics choosing The Sun or Daily Mail over The Guardian

• Social media reinforces political identity rather than shaping it

Misinformation and Fake News

• False information spreads rapidly on social media, potentially misleading voters

  • 2016 EU referendum - false claim that the UK sends £350 million a week to the EU influenced public perception

• viral misinformation is difficult to correct and continues to affect opinions

• raises concerns about voters basing decisions on false info

Limited Impact on Older Voters

• Social media’s influence - heavily skewed toward youth

• Older voters (65+)—who have higher turnout rates—consume more traditional media like TV and newspapers

• UK election data from 2019 shows this group overwhelmingly supported the Conservative Party, despite lower engagement with social media

• OFCOM data indicates that older people spend significantly more time watching TV news compared to those under 24

• Since older voters make up a substantial portion of the electorate, social media’s limited reach in this group curtails its overall political impact

How significant are opinion polls in politics? (4.2 The Influence of the Media)

Significant:

• opinion polls have influenced elections bu influencing turnout and tactical voting

  • 2015 - opinion polls close so many Lib Dem supporters to switch to voting for the Conservatives to avoid a Labour victory

• turnout likely to be higher if opinion polls indicate that the election will be close

  • 2015 election and in Brexit which had relatively high turnouts

• if an election seems decided, people feel their vote will not influence the result

  • 2017 - contributed to Corbyn’s success

• opinion polls can shape party policies

  • opinion polls showing significant sections of the UK public being opposed to trans rights in 2022 likely played a role in key candidates in the Conservative Party leadership elections being opposed to trans rights

Insignificant:

• polling is not significant - simply reflects and shows views of the public

• general public pay little attention to opinion polling

• often get views wrong

  • 1992 - failed to predict John Major’s narrow victory - instead predicted a narrow Labour victory or hung parliament

• fail to survey a representative section of the nations

  • inquiry found not interviewing enough retired people and interviewing too many politically engaged young people (atypical for their age)

Influence of media ON elections (4.2 Influence of the Media)

FOR:

• Partises control media appearance to avoid tough interviews, have stage managed performances and photo opportunities

  • 2019 - Johnson refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, fearing the impact a mishap could have on the campaign

• during elections, most newspapers come out strongly in favour of a political party and campaign

  • Tories launched their manifesto in the Telegraph newspaper in 2019 election

  • night before 2017 general election, Daily Mail published a front page with headline ‘Corbin’ and attacked Corbyn & Labour Party, imploring voters not to vote Labour

• TV debates and interviews key moments as watched by millions

• media is key to how voters consume political info and form opinions and can be seen as important to election outcomes

AGAINST:

• impact of media during elections can be overstated - voters are active and make their own opinions

• individuals consume media and political opinions which they already agree with (echo chamber)

• social factors & valence factors are more important

Influence of media DURING elections (4.2 Influence of the Media)

Media IS important in holding gov accountable between elections:

• the media exposes failures of gov between elections

  • crucial in exposing Partygate scandal through receiving leaks - brought down Johnson’s gov

• Ministers are interviewed on radio and TV daily, journalists can question them and expose their failing

  • Johnson gov - ministers were asked to defend the indefensible

• media = main source of opposition to gov in COVID

Media is NOT important in holding gov accountable between elections:

• Parliament playing far more important role in holding gov accountable whilst media provides platform for politicians to scrutinise other politicians

  • allegations of bias against BBC - Laura Kuenssberg accused of spreading fake news - false story about Labour activists pushing a Conservative party advisor and benefitting the Conservative party

• seeking to control the news agenda - peaked under New Labour when term ‘spin doctor’ was coined

  • Blair recruited press secretary Alastair Campbell who was political editor of the Today newspaper at the time

  • Blair’s gpv developed ‘grid’ of forthcoming events so news announcements could be made, presenting gov in best light

Is the media good for democracy/politics (4.2 Influence of the Media)

Media has a POSITIVE impact on democracy/politics:

• free media = vital feature of healthy democracy and can play essential role in holding gov accountable

• highlights key political issues, especially when parliamentary opposition is weak

• growth of social media means media is more democratised, with many more individuals able to have a voice and participate in politics

• TV and radio coverage less biased than newspapers - BBC Charter insists upon political neutrality

Media has a NEGATIVE impact on democracy/politics:

• large sections of media present an oversimplified interpretation of political issues and focus too much on leaders, personalities and images rather than politicy

  • The Sun began supporting Labour but switched to Conservatives in mid-70s

• Newspapers notoriously partisan and alter their allegiance in response to changing circumstances

• Newspaper owners primarily interested in boosting circulation - cannot be held accountable same way politicians can

• Govs been increasingly making important policy announcements in TV studios rather than HOC and summarising Ministerial speeches in press before they’re delivered - detracts role of parliament & HOC

Non social factors - FOR the economy (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. The Role of Economic Ideologies in Political Parties:

• Conservative Party advocates for low taxes, reduced gov spending, and free-market policies

  • In 2019, Boris Johnson's Conservatives pledged to raise the personal allowance to £12,500 and the higher tax threshold to £50,000

  • During COVID-19, under Chancellor Rishi Sunak, introduced tax relief measures like temporarily reducing VAT for the hospitality sector

• Labour Party supports higher public spending, higher taxation, and policies to reduce inequality

  • Under Jeremy Corbyn's 2019 leadership, Labour pledged £26 billion per year for NHS funding and an increase in minimum wage to £10 per hour

  • Focus on providing better protection for workers' rights to reduce income inequality

2. Brexit and Economic Uncertainty:

• 2016 Brexit referendum showed how economic concerns shaped voting behavior

  • Leave campaign emphasized better trade deals and the UK’s EU membership costs

  • UK was one of the largest net contributors to the EU, with £17 billion annual contribution, which resonated with voters who felt funds were being used inefficiently by the EU

3. The Cost-of-Living Crisis:

• Post-COVID-19 pandemic, cost of living crisis drove voters to parties promising more action to tackle rising inflation and energy costs

  • Labour called for a windfall tax on large energy companies to fund energy bill reductions

  • Liz Truss' brief tenure faced backlash over a mini budget proposing unfunded tax cuts, leading to a market meltdown

  • Rishi Sunak's focus on energy bill support did not satisfy public frustration over the Conservative Party’s handling of the crisis

Non social factors - AGAINST the economy (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. The Economy is Not the Only Factor Influencing Election Results:

• Other factors like party leadership, political ideology, and social issues play significant roles in election outcomes

  • In 2015, David Cameron secured a majority despite ongoing economic challenges, aided by his leadership and focus on the EU referendum

  • 2019 election, Brexit dominated, overshadowing the economy, with the Conservatives winning a majority due to their promise to "Get Brexit Done"

2. Partisanship Overrides Economic Concern:

• Partisanship often outweighs economic considerations as voters tend to support candidates or parties aligned with their ideological values

  • In 1979, despite economic difficulties under the Labour party, loyal voters still supported James Callaghan over Margaret Thatcher

  • Thatcher’s Conservatives won with 43.9% of the vote, but Callaghan's Labour still secured 36.9% of the vote

Non social factors - FOR Party Leaders (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Leaders are the face of their party:

• Charisma of a party leader often attracts voters

  Boris Johnson became Conservative leader in 2019, seen as charismatic and humorous, with a bold Brexit approach

  • media-friendly persona made him figurehead of pro-Brexit movement

  • “Get Brexit Done” resonated with working-class voters, especially in the Red Wall seats in the North and Midlands

  • Johnson led Conservative party to a landslide victory in 2019, securing 365 seats, the highest since 1987

• Jeremy Corbyn also had significant impact with his anti-austerity stance, free broadband, and nationalisation of key industries

  • popularity reflected in the 2017 Glastonbury festival, where chants of “oh Jeremy Corbyn” echoed

• Turnout among 18–24-year-olds increased by 16 percentage points after the 2017 general election

2. The media focuses on the leader:

• The media shapes public perceptions of party leaders, which can influence voting behaviour

• Tony Blair’s image in the 1997 general election was largely shaped by positive media coverage

• Blair’s ability to communicate effectively with the media and his close ties to Rupert Murdoch helped Labour win 43.2% of the vote

• Labour secured a 418-seat victory in 1997, a significant shift from the 1992 election under Neil Kinnock where they secured 34.4% of the vote

3. The influence of party leaders on smaller parties:

• Charismatic leaders also significantly impact smaller parties

• Nigel Farage’s leadership of UKIP led to immense success due to his anti-immigration stance, which resonated with many working-class voters

• Farage’s departure from UKIP caused the party to lose popularity and struggle in the polls

• Farage then formed the Brexit Party, which won the 2019 European elections, but it disappeared after his departure

• Reform UK, formed by Farage, did well in the 2024 general elections, even overtaking the Conservative Party in members by Christmas 2024

• Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond contributed to the success of the Scottish National Party (SNP)

• The SNP’s fortunes changed when Sturgeon stepped down, and they lost the majority of their seats in Scotland

Non social factors - AGAINST Party Leaders (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Success for a political party is a team effort, not just the role of an individual

• Electoral success involves more than just the charisma or policies of a leader

• Party infrastructure (local constituencies, volunteers, campaigners) is crucial in engaging voters and canvassing support

  • Labour's success in 1997 wasn't just due to Blair’s appeal but also to collective effort, including Gordon Brown’s role in shaping economic policies

• “New Labour” was a collaborative project over years to make the party electable after 18 years of opposition

  • The 2010 Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition required compromise between the two parties to form a shared policy agenda, rather than the unilateral vision of one leader

2. The media is more crucial than the party leader

• 2019 - Conservative media outlets portrayed Johnson as “man of the people,” contrasting him with Corbyn, who was depicted as weak and indecisive on Brexit

• The media's focus on Johnson’s promise to “Get Brexit Done” resonated with disillusioned voters

  • during 2016 Brexit referendum, the media framed leaving EU as restoring British sovereignty and reducing immigration

  • media amplified fears over immigration and portrayed EU as undermining British sovereignty, making these messages more influential than the political leaders

Non social factors - FOR the manifesto (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Election Campaigns Mobilise and Influence Voters

• 2017 General Election – Labour’s Campaign

  • Jeremy Corbyn led a highly effective campaign that energised younger voters

  • Promises included free university education, public service investment, and nationalisation

  • Despite mainstream media favouring the Conservatives, Labour’s campaign gained momentum and closed the polling gap

  • Shows that well-targeted campaigns can shift public opinion, especially among disengaged groups

2. Party Manifestos Define Policy and Vision

• 2015 General Election

  • Conservatives focused on economic stability and austerity in their manifesto

  • Labour opposed austerity and focused more on public service investment

  • Conservative slogan: “Long-term economic plan” reassured voters concerned with national debt

  • Voters perceived the Tories as more economically competent, helping them secure a majority

• 1983 General Election – Labour’s Manifesto

  • Known as the “longest suicide note in history” by Gerald Kaufman

  • Contained strongly socialist policies, alienated many moderate voters

  • Resulted in a landslide victory for Thatcher with 397 seats and 42.4% of the vote

  • Shows how radical manifestos can harm electoral chances if they lack mainstream appeal

Non social factors - AGAINST the manifesto (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Leadership Often Matters More

• 2019 General Election

  • Boris Johnson’s leadership seen as strong, decisive, particularly on Brexit

  • Jeremy Corbyn viewed as weak and indecisive, especially on anti-Semitism and Brexit

  • Johnson’s image helped win over many Red Wall seats, while Corbyn’s hurt Labour’s credibility

  • Shows voters often choose based on leaders, not campaign promises

2. Brexit as a Defining Issue

• Dominated the 2019 Election

  • Conservative’s clear “Get Brexit Done” message cut through the noise

  • Labour’s Brexit stance was ambiguous and alienated both Remain and Leave voters

  • Brexit became a single-issue vote for many, outweighing wider manifestos and campaigns

  • Clear alignment with public sentiment on major issues may be more decisive than campaigns

3. Broader Economic and Social Context

• 2015 General Election

  • Economic recovery post-2008 crash boosted the Conservatives’ narrative of fiscal responsibility

  • Many voters felt Labour lacked economic credibility

• 2017 General Election

  • Austerity backlash and NHS concerns helped Labour gain seats, especially with young and working-class voters

  • Social realities drive policy interest—campaigns work better when aligned with public mood

Non social factors - FOR the campaign (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. The role of election campaigns

• Election campaigns shape public opinion and mobilise voters through activities like advertising, debates, and social media outreach

  • 2017 general election, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party engaged younger voters with an ambitious manifesto promising investment in public services, free university education, and re-nationalisation of industries

• Despite the Conservative party’s media advantages, Labour’s campaign shifted momentum, though they did not win

• Campaigns influence undecided voters, but are not the sole determinant of election outcomes

2. The importance of party manifestos

   • Manifestos outline a party’s policies and vision, influencing policy-focused voters

     • 2015 general election, the Conservative manifesto focused on economic stability and austerity, while Labour’s emphasized public services and opposition to austerity

   • Conservative’s message on economic competence resonated with voters concerned about national debt, contributing to their victory

   • Labour’s manifesto was less persuasive on economic issues, helping the Conservatives maintain power

Non social factors - AGAINST the campaign (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Party leadership is more influential

• Leadership plays a significant role in elections, as voters trust competent leaders

• 2019 election, Boris Johnson’s leadership on Brexit was crucial to the Conservative victory

• Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, including handling issues like anti-Semitism and Brexit, was seen as a liability for Labour

2. Impact of Brexit

• Brexit dominated the 2019 election, with the Conservative party’s clear stance contrasting with Labour’s ambiguity

• For many voters, Brexit was the defining issue, outweighing other policy proposals

3. Economic and Social Factors

• Economic and social conditions shape voter attitudes

• Example: In 2015, the recovery from the 2008 financial crash reinforced the Conservative message of economic stability

• 2017, Labour’s rise was driven by dissatisfaction with austerity and concerns about public services, appealing to working-class voters and younger generations

4. The "longest suicide note in history"

• Labour’s 1983 manifesto, described by MP Gerald Kaufman as the "longest suicide note in history," focused on extreme socialist policies

• The manifesto contributed to Labour’s defeat in 1983, with Thatcher’s Conservative party winning 397 seats and 42.4% of the vote

Non social factors - FOR specific issues (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Healthcare and the NHS is a key determinant in voting

• Healthcare is consistently one of the most important issues for UK voters, with the NHS at the centre of public life

  Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party promised significant investment in the NHS, appealing to voters concerned about its future under austerity

• The Conservative party under Boris Johnson faced criticism over NHS budget cuts during austerity

  • In 2019, healthcare ranked as the second-most important issue (42% concern), just behind Brexit (64%) according to Ipsos Issue Index poll

• NHS funding was especially important in marginal constituencies, with Labour’s promise resonating with working-class voters, though Brexit eventually overshadowed it

2. Education and funding cuts

• Education is another key issue influencing voter choices

  • 2017 & 2019 general elections, Labour promised to reverse austerity cuts and increase school funding, appealing to parents, teachers, and students affected by underfunding and rising class sizes

• Labour’s 2017 pledge to abolish tuition fees resonated with young voters, contributing to strong performance

• The Conservative Party focused on increasing standards in education with an emphasis on free schools and grammar schools

• Conservative cuts to school budgets were a key reason for Labour’s growing popularity in certain constituencies

Non social factors - AGAINST specific issues (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

Party Loyalty and Tradition

• Party loyalty and tradition often outweigh issues like healthcare and Brexit

• Many voters in the UK consistently vote for a particular party, regardless of specific policies or issues

• In working-class areas, Labour loyalty remains deeply ingrained, even in the face of issues like Brexit or NHS funding

Leadership and Charisma over policy

• Leadership plays a significant role in shaping voter decisions, with charismatic leaders swaying votes even without popular policies

  • 2019 general election, Boris Johnson’s decisive, bold leadership and commitment to delivering Brexit were key factors in the Conservative victory

• Johnson’s personal appeal, compared to Jeremy Corbyn’s indecisiveness, attracted voters frustrated by political gridlock

  • Tony Blair’s charismatic leadership in 1997 was crucial in winning over voters disillusioned with the Conservative government

• Blair’s personal appeal and vision of New Labour helped unite the electorate, contributing to a landslide Labour victory

Non social factors - party unity (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Public Perception of Stability and Competence

• Party unity = voter confidence

  • A unified party is seen as more competent, especially in times of national crisis or uncertainty

  • In 2017, Theresa May’s Conservative Party appeared divided on Brexit, weakening public trust

  • Contrast this with 2019, where Boris Johnson’s Tories presented a unified message on Brexit—"Get Brexit Done"—which resonated with frustrated voters and led to a clear mandate

2. Unified Campaigning = Clear Messaging

• Disunity leads to fragmented campaigns and mixed messaging

  • Labour in 2015 and 2017 struggled with internal divisions, especially around Corbyn’s leadership and policy direction, which led to a lack of coherence in campaign messaging

• In contrast, Conservatives in 2015, with a united leadership under Cameron, ran a strategic and focused campaign, emphasising economic recovery and stability, which paid off at the polls

Non social factors - party unity (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Public perception of stability and voter confidence

• Unity within a political party signals to the public that the party is capable of governing effectively, especially in times of crisis like economic uncertainty or national security concerns

  • 2017 General Election, Theresa May’s Conservatives suffered from internal divisions over Brexit, undermining her authority and weakening her position

• A unified party can project strength and stability during difficult times

  • 2019 General Election, Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party presented a unified front on Brexit with the slogan “Get Brexit Done,” which appealed to both Leave and some Remain voters

2. Effective campaigning

• Party unity allows for more effective campaigning, as a divided party often leads to fragmented efforts and mixed messages

  • The Labour Party’s internal divisions over leadership and policy choices in 2015 and 2017 resulted in less cohesive campaigns

  • The Conservative Party in 2015, with united leadership, ran a more coordinated and successful campaign compared to Labour’s struggles

Non social factors - FOR The Media (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. The media is the main source of political information

• OFCOM 2023: 96% of UK population consumes news, 70% via broadcast TV

• BBC remains central to shaping voter perceptions through extensive election coverage

• Boris Johnson’s March 2020 COVID-19 broadcast watched by 27 million people

• Framing of issues like Brexit influenced by different media portrayals (The Sun vs The Guardian)

2. Class dealignment means weaker social factors in general

• Decline in class-based voting since the 1980s increases media influence

• Voters now influenced more by personality, leadership, and media portrayal than class

• Media narratives significantly shape opinions in absence of traditional voting blocs

3. Political parties & politicians believe the media has vast influence

• Parties work to maintain good relations with media (e.g., 20 meetings between News Corp and government officials including Rupert Murdoch)

• New Labour under Tony Blair pioneered news management with Alistair Campbell as press secretary

• Daily televised briefings introduced by Boris Johnson in 2020, with £2.6 million spent on setup

• Media Reform Coalition: 60% of 494 articles on Corbyn in 2015 were negative

4. Strong correlation between the media and shaping views

• The Sun’s support has aligned with every general election winner since 1979

• 1997: Labour gained 6.62% more support among Sun readers, 525,000 votes estimated to have changed

• 2010: Sun’s shift to Conservatives saw a 14.7% greater increase in support among its readers

• No change in reader attitudes suggests media influence was decisive

Non social factors - AGAINST The Media (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. The media is merely an echo chamber

• Voters tend to choose media that aligns with their views, reinforcing existing beliefs

• Poll for Huffington Post shows strong overlap between readers’ views and newspapers’ stance

• Conservative insider claimed Mail, Sun and Telegraph support for ‘In’ could have changed EU vote outcome

2. The media is not homogeneous/united

• Competing messages from various outlets reduce consistent influence

• Broadcast media (BBC, Sky, LBC) legally required to remain politically neutral

• OFCOM ensures impartiality, especially during elections

3. Other factors are more important

• Corbyn in 2017 gained biggest vote share increase since 1945 despite hostile press

• David Cameron won party leadership in 2005 despite Daily Mail opposition

• Sadiq Khan won 2016 mayoral vote despite Evening Standard’s backing of Zac Goldsmith

• Corbyn’s popularity in 2017 shown by chants at Glastonbury and high youth turnout (Ipsos: +16%)

4. The public does not trust the media

• Trust eroded post-2009 MPs’ expenses scandal, exposing unethical behaviour and media distortion

• Journalists consistently rated least trusted profession before scandal, politicians after

• Cases like Tony Blair’s “shredded” expenses and Ed Balls/Yvette Cooper house scandal fed distrust

5. The traditional media is in decline and its audience is shrinking

• Press readership dropped 28% in five years, only 1 in 6 read daily papers in 2015

• TV debate audiences decreased: 2010 (9.4m) to 2019 (no Johnson participation)

• Newspaper circulation plummeted: The Sun (3.57m in 1992 to 1.66m in 2017)

• OFCOM 2019: national newspaper sales halved from 22m (2010) to 10.4m (2018)

• Online presence growing: Daily Mail’s digital readership reached 4.1m in 2022

Social Factors - FOR class (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Economic interests and social identity

• Different social classes have distinct economic priorities

• Working-class voters often prioritise job security and public services, while affluent voters focus on tax policies and business regulations

• Labour historically appeals to working-class voters with a focus on workers' rights and trade union support

• The Conservative party appeals to more affluent, middle, and upper-class voters, with policies focused on lower taxes and traditional values

  • In 1964-66, 64% of working-class voters supported Labour, while 62% of middle-class voters voted for the Conservatives

2. Class alignment

• Class was historically a major factor in determining voting behaviour

  • After WW2, around 80% of voters voted according to their class interests

• Middle or upper class voters typically supported the Conservative party, seen as governing in their interest

• Working-class voters typically supported Labour, as it focused on policies benefiting the working class and poor

• Despite this, there were always exceptions, with many working-class voters supporting the Conservatives, particularly in the 50s-60s

• Class-based voting has declined in recent years, with issues like Brexit becoming more influential in voting behaviour

Social Factors - AGAINST class (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Class dealignment:

• decline of class-based voting - voting patterns more unpredictable

  • Causes:

    • Shrinking manual workforce (58% in 1961 to 29% in 2013)

    • Decline of trade unions and rise of homeownership

    • Working-class voters identifying as middle class

    • Shift to valence voting, focusing on party competence

    • Liberal Democrats' rise with centrist policies appealing across classes

  • 2010: Only 38% of voters identified as class voters

  • 2017 & 2019: More middle-class voters shifted to Labour, while working-class voters moved to Conservatives

  • 2019: More Brexit-supporting working-class voters voted Conservative. Collapse of Labour's stronghold in the North and Midlands

2. Partisan dealignment:

• Partisan dealignment: Decline in long-term political party loyalty

• In 1979, 81% of the electorate cast their votes for the Conservatives and Labour combined, yet by 1997 this had fallen to 74% and 65% by 2010. The reasons for this are:

  Causes:

  • Education led to questioning of party loyalties

  • Media access reduced dependency on party-affiliated news

  • Shifting policies alienated traditional supporters

  • Floating voters: Less than 40% of voters show strong party commitment

Social Factors - FOR age (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

1. Age as a Significant Factor:

• A post-2019 study found that knowing age (and educational background) was more helpful in predicting votes than knowing class or income

• Historically, voting was restricted to 21+, assuming youth would favor radical policies and be less likely to vote (e.g. 60% of 18-24-year-olds didn’t vote in 2001)

• Voters aged 18-24 are four times more likely to vote Labour, SNP, Green, or Lib Dem than Conservative

2. Party Preference:

• Younger voters tend to support Labour while older voters lean towards the Conservative party

  • 2017, Labour had a 47% lead over the Conservatives among 18-19-year-olds, while Conservatives led by 50% among 70+ voters

• Since Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader in 2015, more young voters aligned with Labour

• Tories won 2019 election (365 seats) but would’ve had only 4 seats if 18-24-year-olds had voted

• In contrast, the Tories would’ve won 575 seats with voters aged 65+ and Labour only 32

• If voters aged 25-49 had voted, there would’ve been a hung parliament with Labour winning 310 seats and Conservatives 240

• 2017: 66% of 18-19-year-olds voted Labour, 19% voted Conservative

• Labour vote stayed in the 60s until 29 years old

• 55% of 30-39-year-olds voted Labour, 29% Conservative

• 70+ voters: 69% voted Conservative, 19% voted Labour

3. Issue Prioritisation:

• Younger voters - Remain, older voters - Leave

• Youths less likely to vote Conservative, due to differing views on issues like Brexit, immigration, housing, and tuition costs

  • In 2016, 75% of 18-24-year-olds voted Remain

• If younger voter turnout had matched that of older voters, the election result would have been different

• Age now decisively impacts voting behaviour, with 18-24-year-olds four times more likely to vote Labour, SNP, Green, or Lib Dem than Conservative

• If only 18-24-year-olds voted in 2019, there would have been no Conservative seats apart from parts of Essex and North-West East Anglia

• If only those aged 65+ voted, only Labour seats would remain in London and parts of the Midlands and Northwest

Social Factors - AGAINST age (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

Diverse Experiences:

• Individuals in the same age group may have different life experiences and perspectives, making age a less reliable indicator of voting behaviour

  • Class may be a more important factor, considering political socialisation and partisan dealignment

Changing Values:

• Values and priorities of different age groups evolve over time, meaning age-related voting patterns may shift

Collective Identity:

• Voters may identify more with issues or parties than their age group, suggesting that shared interests can transcend age differences

Generational Cohorts:

• Political ideologies are often passed down from parents to children (e.g., Conservative parents passing values to children)

• This could explain the higher number of Conservative elderly voters, but once they pass, there will be fewer Conservative voters, suggesting age alone may not impact voting as much as parental socialisation

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Social Factors - FOR gender (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

Party Support:

• 2019 General Election, women supported Labour (35%) more than men (31%)

  • Conservatives had 46% support among men and 44% among women

• Labour’s policies on childcare and equal pay resonated more with female voters

• Men were more likely to support the Conservative Party due to differing priorities

Voter Turnout:

• Women consistently show higher voter turnout than men

  • 2017 General Election, 72% of women voted compared to 65% of men

• Higher female turnout can influence election outcomes

• Despite higher turnout, men were more likely to support the Tories (45%) compared to women (39%)

Social Factors - AGAINST gender (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

Intersectionality:

• Voting behaviour is influenced by factors like socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and regional differences

• Working-class women in North England vote differently from middle-class women in the South, showing that gender alone doesn't explain voting patterns

“Gender Dealignment”/ Changing Dynamics:

• In the 2017 election, gender had little influence on voting

• Post-war, women were more likely to vote Conservative, reflecting social attitudes and fewer women working outside the home

• The gender gap narrowed during the Thatcher era and almost disappeared during the Blair years

  • In 1997 and 2001, Labour had strong support from young female voters

  • In 2019, Conservatives had a 15-point lead over Labour among men but only an 11-point lead among women

• Labour has performed slightly stronger among women than men since the 2005 election

• Gender influence on voting is not static, with younger voters prioritising issues like climate change and social justice

Individual Choice:

• Voters often make decisions based on personal beliefs rather than gender norms

• Some men support Labour for social issues, while some women support the Conservatives for economic policies

  • In the 2015 election, men were more likely to vote Conservative than women in all age groups except 50%

  • MORI studies from 2010, 2015, and 2017 show no significant difference in voting patterns between men and women

  • After 2017, women were split between Labour and Conservative, with men slightly more likely to vote Conservative, but this difference was relatively insignificant compared to age

Social Factors - FOR Region (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

Cultural and Historical Context:

• Region is linked with class, leading to discussions of the North-South divide in UK politics since the 1980s

• Labour traditionally held few seats south of the Bristol Channel, except in London

• Conservatives struggled in the North of England and had no seats in Wales or Scotland for a time

  • New Labour succeeded in the South after rebranding in 1997 and 2001, but the divide persisted

• Liberal Democrat support was regional but disappeared after 2015

  • In 2019, the ‘Red Wall’ in the North of England, traditionally Labour-held, turned blue, surprising many

Economic Factors:

• Economic conditions vary by region, influencing voting behaviour

• Areas with higher unemployment or economic decline may favour parties promising change or economic support

  • In 2019, 'Red Wall' constituencies in the North of England shifted towards the Conservatives due to economic concerns and Brexit

Geographic Voting Trends:

• London typically votes Labour, while the Southeast leans Conservative

  • In 2019, Labour won 49% of the vote in London, while Conservatives secured 38% in the Southeast

Demographic Differences:

• Regions have different demographic profiles (age, ethnicity, education) that influence voting patterns

• Younger voters tend to favour Labour and the Liberal Democrats, while older voters lean Conservative

  • In 2019, 62% of 18-24-year-olds voted Labour, while just 19% voted Conservative

Social Factors - AGAINST Region (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

• Overgeneralisation of Voter Preferences:

  • Relying on regional identities can lead to overgeneralisation, assuming all voters in a region share the same views

    • 2019, Labour won 49% of the vote in London, but Conservatives still received a significant share, indicating a more nuanced political landscape

• Regional Disparities in Political Engagement:

  • Political engagement varies by region, leading to skewed representation

  • In the 2019 election, turnout was 60% in London, but just 57.5% in the Northeast

  • This disparity can lead to underrepresentation of certain regions in Parliament

  • The Labour Party lost seats in areas like South Wales and the Midlands, indicating a shift in regional voting behaviour

• Impact of FPTP:

  • The First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system reinforces regional party dominance and leads to wasted votes

    • 2019, Liber Dems received 11.5% of national vote but only won 11 seats

Social Factors - FOR Ethnicity/Religion (4.1 Voting behaviour)

Historical Voting Patterns:

• BME voters have historically supported Labour, which is more associated with pro-immigration policies and support for minority communities

  • Labour was the most popular party among ethnic minority voters in 2017, with 20% voting Conservative and 3% for other parties

• Since 1974, Labour has received around 80% of the black and Asian vote

• This trend is linked to class, as many immigrants live in working-class urban areas

• In 2017, Labour's share of the BME vote rose to 73%, while Conservative support among BME voters fell

• Other estimates suggest 65% of ethnic minorities voted Labour in 2017, particularly benefiting Labour in multicultural areas like London

• In 2019, 56% of BAME voters intended to vote Labour versus 23% for the Conservatives, according to ICM, while BMG reported 40% and 27% respectively

Religious Influence:

• Labour is generally more pro-immigration and supportive of welfare policies

• In 2005, Labour lost Muslim support due to the Iraq War, with areas like Bethnal Green & Bow electing the Respect Party

• Labour performed well among Muslim voters in 2015 and 2017, receiving 74% and then 87% of Muslim votes respectively

• This reflects Muslim communities' alignment with Labour on immigration and social policies

Community Mobilisation:

• Ethnic and religious organisations mobilise voters around shared interests

  • In 2017, 87% of Muslim voters supported Labour, highlighting how community identity can influence collective political participation

Social Factors - AGAINST Ethnicity/Religion (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

Cross-Ethnic Voting Trends:

• Many UK voters do not vote strictly along ethnic or religious lines

  • In 2019, while trends existed among ethnic minorities, white working-class voters also significantly supported Labour

• Socio-economic status can outweigh ethnic or religious identity in influencing voting behaviour

Issue-Based Voting:

• Voters often prioritise issues over identity

  • In 2019, climate change drove cross-demographic support for the Green Party

• Voters from various ethnic and religious backgrounds supported parties based on policy positions

Generational Change:

• Younger ethnic minority voters often differ in political behaviour from older generations

  • The Runnymede Trust found younger British Muslims increasingly identify with broader progressive values

• As societal values change, traditional voting patterns based on ethnicity or religion may diminish

1979 General Election (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

Conservatives – 339 seats (43.9% share)

Labour – 269 seats (37% share)

The Liberal Party – 11 seats (13.8% share)

Social, Economic and Political Context:

• 1979 Winter of Discontent where Callaghan’s Labour gov’s attempts to impose 5% limit on pay increases collapsed as series of strikes by lorry drivers, health workers, refuse collectors and gravediggers

  • media showed images of miserable, strike-bound Britain

  • provided Conservatives with irresistible theme that the country need new direction and a gov that could grapple with economic an social breakdown

• Conservative party used slogan “Labour isn’t working”

• Labour looked weak as election was triggered with a withdrawal of support from nationalist parties after the result of referendums of Scottish and Welsh devolution went against the gov

• left Labour with no majority and forced Callaghan to govern country at worst possible time for his party

Social Factors:

• Conservatives dominated upper and middle classes whilst also gaining votes among working classes for first time

• suggests slight decline in importance of class and social factors

• Thatcher used “Essex Man'“ strategy with policies such as the Right To Buy council houses and support of small businesses proving popular

The Campaign:

• relatively uneventful - Labour started way behind

• Conservatives adopted many of the techniques of modern advertising under the guidance of two professional publicity specialists, Gordon Reece and Rim Bell

  • the slogan and poster “Labour isn’t working” was effective

• Thatcher successfully used photo opportunities, including holding a newborn calf and sought to present herself effectively in media

1997 General Election (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

Labour – 418 seats (43.2% share)

Conservative – 165 seats (30.6% share)

Liberal Democrats – 46 seats (16.8% share)

Declining Importance of Class:

• New Labour won significant amount of middle class voters across country, including Tory heartlands of South East

• maintained majority support of working class

• shifted party policy significantly to the centre

Rational Choice and Issue Voting:

• Blair abandoned old-fashioned party policies such as nationalism, tax increases and the strengthening of Trade Union powers, which might put off middle-class voters

• Promised policy details such as reducing primary school class sizes and cutting hospital waiting lists

Leadership:

• Blair popular - seen as charismatic & competent with clear vision & control over his party

• contrasted with John Major who was seen weak, boring, presiding over a party divided over Europe and tainted by ‘sleaze’ and the cash for questions scandal

Perceived Competence:

• Labour could not have won on such a large scale without the damage Conservatives inflicted on themselves after 1992 election

• Conservatives had their worst election result since 1832,

  • Black Wednesday in September 1992 - Britain forced to withdraw from pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) - country was forced to devalue the pound, leading to massive economic turmoil & loss of public confidence in the Conservative party.

Sleaze:

• Cash-for-questions scandal (1994):

  • Conservative MPs Neil Hamilton and Tim Smith were accused of accepting money to ask parliamentary questions

• Sexual misconduct and affairs:

  • Several high-profile Conservatives were involved in scandals

  • David Mellor, former Minister for Sport, was caught in an affair while in office

The Media:

• Labour won endorsement of greater press including The Sun and The Times

• “The Sun Backs Blair”

2019 General Election (4.1 Voting Behaviour)

Conservatives - 43.6%

Labour - 32.1%

Liberal Democrats - 11.6%

Issue Voting and Competence:

• Brexit was key issue of the election

• Conservative party led with slogan “Get Brexit Done”

  • 74% of Leave voters votes for the Tories (including many in the Red Wall), whilst 49% of Remain voters voted Labour

• Labour was seen as too radical and not trusted with the economy due to its major spending pledges and 6 big nationaliations

• both parties pledged to end austerity but Labour pledged to increase spending by a lot more

Leadership:

• Corbyn was unpopular - he took no position on Brexit, was seen as weak, and criticised for allowing antisemitism to grow in the Labour Party

• media helped fuel Corbyn’s unpopularity

• Johnson was popular and able to reach Conservative Party’s core vote

The Campaign:

• 2019 campaign had little impact on results of the election

• Johnson and Tories tried to focus exclusively on Brexit - “Get Brexit Done”

The Media:

• two TV debates between the two leaders, but neither had a significant impact on voters’ opinions, with neither performing particularly well

• Corbyn and Labour were harmed by an interview Corbyn had with Andrew Neill in which they performed properly

  • Boris Johnson refused to do an interview in Andrew Neill, despite having previously agreed to do so

Social Factors:

• trad class associations played little role, with the Conservatives receiving significant numbers of working class votes due in large part to Brexit

  • before election, 17 Tory seats were among the 25% most deprived in England, whilst in 2019 it increased to 35

• key regional shifts, with the Conservative Party breaking the “Red Wall” and winning many Northern seats which were trad Labour heartlands

  • SNP dominance in Scotland was strengthened, winning 48/56 seats

• Age and education continued to be key social factors in predicting the outcome

  • Tories won 56% if vote among over 60s and 67% among over-70s

  • 2019 election, 43% of those with a degree or higher voted for Labour

  • The Conservative Party won 58% of votes among those whose highest level of education was GCSE or lower (YouGov)