Demography - Lundquist: Ch. 1-4

Questions from Demographers

How many, What kind, Where?
How come?
So what?

Formal Demography

Study of demographic variables and their interrelationships

Social Demography

Analysis of how social and cultural factors are related to population characteristics

Important Demographic Variables

Age, Sex, Ethnicity

Fundamental Equation

P2 - P1 = B(1,2) - D(1,2) + M(1,2)

Nuptiality

Process of changing marital status; important for cohabitation, influences Births/Death/Migration

Population Problem’s Factors

1. Recognition of Cause/Effect
   2. Negative social judgement
   

Natural Increase

Difference between Births and Deaths: (B-D)

Basic Features of Census

Individual; Universal; Simultaneous; Periodic

Features of Modern Census

Geographic boundaries; Relevant traits; Simultaneous evaluation; Information compilation by subarea and category of trait - distribution and composition.

De Facto Residence

‘Census Moment’ - where they were at the time

De Jure Residence

Usual place of residence

Census Errors

Under/over counting - errors of coverage

Misreporting, age heaping - errors of content

Age Heaping

Tendency of people to round reported age.

American Community Survey

Monthly survey of 250k homes - gathering steady information on regions (used to be decennial, more available information)

GIS

Geographic Information Systems - used to produce map based graphs and data sets with census data

Vital Statistics

Church records → Genealogies, Population Registers; System of civil registration for major changes in status: birth, death, marriage, divorce

National Center for Health Statistics

Collects birth/death certificate data; oversees large national surveys and provides public access to data

Sample Surveys

Surveying with a sample size - using statistical models to estimate relevant demographic variables (such as national-scale fertility, mortality)

Current Population Reports

Result of CPS (Current Pop. Surveys) - a monthly survey of the labor force status of the population, published as reports to describe the population.

World Population Before Agriculture?

An estimated five million before the emergence of agrarian societies - B.C.E.

Agrarian Effect of Population?

Allowed exponential growth of population from five million to roughly 2-3 hundred million by C.E. 1.

Population Before Industrial Revolution?

Over one billion - what follows is an incredibly steep climb in population growth
From 19th-21st century, grows from 1→6.5 billion

What is Development; MDR vs. LDR?

Can be called modernization; Economic development refers to efficiency of productive technology, Demographic development is the degree of control over death and birth.
Reflects aspects of the combination of Economic and Demographic development. 

Relation of Annual Growth Rate and Doubling Time?

The latter is based on the former in a logarithmic relation; depending on the growth rate, the time for a population to double at 1% growth is ~70 years

When did the Global Growth Rate Peak?

Pg. 50: 1960-65, AGR of 2%; peaks in the postwar era, after WW2: dramatic baby boom.

Human Development Index

Measure of social and economic development, combining life expectancy, education level, national income into one statistic; can have exceptions - South Korea / Argentina are ranked highly by HDI, but are LDR by convention.

Replacement-Level Fertility

Average level of which women have enough daughters to “replace” themselves in the population; sustainability of female population in the world.
Almost half of the global population has below replacement fertility

Death Rate Variability > Birth Rate Variability In Stage One / Pre-transition

Death rates and birth rates were high - disease and famine could run rampant whilst fertility was uncontrolled (no contraception / planned-parenthood ideologies)

Birth Rate Variability > Death Rate Variability In Stage Four / Late-transition

Death rates declined with better medical technology - leaving degenerative and human-made diseases, and better agriculture - food becoming a smaller issue
Birth rates declined with variability as infant mortality decreased - less pressure to have children to replace the population; more control over fertility 

Demographic Transition

Industrialization, urbanization, literacy growth, secularization, growing consumerism, agricultural revolution; all supporting a rapidly changing society shifting from High Fertility/Mortality to having Greater Control over Low Fertility/Mortality

Misleading Idea of More Population in LDR’s?

While the Fertility of LDR’s is twice of the MDR’s, infant mortality is often more than eight times that of MDR’s; the vulnerability of LDR's populations to famine/war aren’t captured by demographic statistics

Population Density Equation

Population Size / Land Area
Can suggest that the population of an area is too large/small - defining over/underpopulation

Carrying Capacity Equation

Population Size / Resources
Resources depend on both technology and consumption behavior - closely related to the idea of an ecological footprint: how environmentally sustainable a population is

Malthus’ Theory of Population

Blaming population size for shortages:
Positive Checks - population within limits for subsistence through changes in death rates; the death rate will change until the population is supportable
Moral Restraint: essentially planned parenthood - not having kids until you can actually support them
Vice: ‘promiscuity, homosexuality, adultery, birth control’ ok man we get it

Tragedy of Commons

Individual Interests conflicting with Collective Best Interest; use of fossil fuels despite climate change as an example

Demographic Dividend

The potentially accelerated economic growth that begins with changes in the age structure of a country's population as it transitions from high to low birth and death rates. Also known as a demographic bonus.

Population Structure

Age-sex composition of cohorts; influenced by Migration, Fertility, and Mortality Rates

Census Quality Errors

Underenumeration: of an age/sex class means failing to count someone who would have fallen into that class - errors also called coverage errors or undercounts
Misreporting: counting somebody but misallocating them among age-sex categories

Age-Dependency Ratio

Youth / Elderly populations are dependent on others; population booms / busts influence these dependent populations, so they may be imbalanced (Japan is the main example)
Young Age: Population <15 / Population 18-64
Old Age: Population >64 / Population 18-64

Sex Ratio

Number of men divided by the number of women;
(Men / Women ) * 100 = ratio
Ratio influx reflects male vs. female population by generation/birth cohort

Population Pyramid

Composed of bar graphs, visually displaying sizes of classes in a frequency or percentage distribution
Shows distribution of Male / Female with male being the bar to the left, female to the right
Differs in behavior from MDR to LDR

Cohort

Set of people identified on the basis of having experienced a specified demographic event at the same time
Birth cohort refers to a generation of people tat are similarly aged

Cohort Projection?

Assumptions about future mortality, fertility, migration are applied to each cohort to project its size in the future

Population Momentum

The resistance to change in crude birth rates caused by an age structure resulting from the prior fertility regime; in LDR’s, the lag between a decline of total fertility rates and growth rates caused by large proportions of women still being in their childbearing years due to past high total fertility rates.

Young Population Problems

Issues in dependency - if they aren’t properly raised as dependents, the mortality rate may climb 

Old Population Problems

Changing age structure of workforce, increasing size of elderly population; increasing proportion of population is the elderly because there are less and less young people - decline in birth rates with an old population again we glance over at japan

Social Security

An age structured system made to pay for those who age out of the workforce through retirement
Implications that continuing the system is not sustainable in America

Richard Easterlin’s Cohort Theory

Relative size of a cohort has a lot to do with the fate of its members; the size of birth cohorts may influence both the completed fertility of cohorts and the timing of their childbearing.