tradecraft and emerging methods

analyst guidlines

ICD 203

intelligence community analytic standards

objective, independent of political consideration, timely, based on all available sources of intelligence information, and implements and exhibits analytic tradecraft standards

objective

use sound reasoning, avoid bias

independent of political consideration

be free of policy or political influence

timely

provided in timely manner to support consumer

based on all available sources of intelligence inform

use all available information and sources

implements and exhibits analytic tradecraft standards

follow tradecraft standards

how many IC Tradecraft Standards

nine

1. Properly describes quality and credibility of underlying sources, data, and methodologies

Understand and explain credibility and reliability of source & data; potential impacts on sources

2. Properly expresses and explains uncertainties associated with major analytic judgments

explain the unknowns/uncertainty, provide likelihood of probability, provide confidence level

3. Properly distinguishes between underlying intelligence information and analysts’ assumptions and judgments

fact-based/analysis-based statement, clearly distinguished from assumptions

4. Incorporates analysis of alternatives

you use hypothesis and analysis of alternatives in analysis, inform customer of alternative analysis

5. Demonstrates customer relevance and addresses implications

relate to customer requirements/needs, cover relevant issues of concern

6. Uses clear and logical argumentation

clear message up front, follow logical progression/argument; supported by clear reasoning, use coherent flow to argument/logic

7. Explains change to or consistency of analytic judgments

you can change your assessment; it’s ok, but be clear in explaining deviation/change from prior assessments, if major IC elements disagree ensure consumers are aware

8. Makes accurate judgments and assessments

apply strong analytic techniques and procedures; ensure best accuracy possible, do not avoid tough assessments to avoid being wrong, clearly and concisely articulated

9. Incorporates effective visual information where appropriate

use visual support to clarify or complement assessments, visual support must be related to assessment, should not detract from analysis

where can big data analytics help

anomaly detection, association, classification and clustering, link analysis, machine learning