Module 8 Risk Assessments

For Forensic Psychology (PSYO2444)

Risk Assessment

Predict the likelihood of an event (e.g., recidivism) that has not yet happened. (p. 4)

Prediction (Risk Assessment)

Probability that an offender will commit future violent acts; focuses on identifying related risk factors. (p. 5)

Management (Risk Assessment)

Interventions to manage/reduce future violence; focuses on identifying treatments that reduce risk level. (p. 5)

Baxstrom v. Herald (1966)

Case where "violent" offenders were released and showed a low recidivism rate. (p. 7)

Dixon v. Attorney General of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (1971)

Case related to the release of "violent" offenders, showing low base rate for violence. (p. 7)

Baxstrom and Dixon studies (Findings)

Base rate for violence was low; false positive rate was high. (p. 7)

Barefoot v. Estelle (1983)

U.S. death penalty case where expert testimony about future threat to society was challenged as "only wrong most of the time". (p. 8)

Risk Factor

A measurable feature of an individual (e.g., attitude) that predicts the behavior of interest (e.g., recidivism). (p. 10)

Static Risk Factors

Factors that do not change (e.g., age at first arrest). (p. 10)

Dynamic Risk Factors

Factors that change over time (e.g., antisocial attitude). (p. 10)

Dispositional Risk Factors

Traits, tendencies, or style (e.g., age, gender, impulsivity, psychopathy). (p. 12)

Historical Risk Factors

General or specific criminal history (e.g., past antisocial behavior, age of onset, past supervision failure). (p. 13)

Clinical Risk Factors

Symptoms of mental disorders that can contribute to violence (e.g., substance use, schizophrenia, affective disorders). (p. 14)

Contextual Risk Factors

Aspects of the individual’s current environment that can elevate risk (e.g., lack of social support, access to weapons/victims). (p. 15)

Unstructured Clinical Judgments

Decisions based on professional discretion, skill, experience, wisdom, and intuition, with no specific guidelines. (p. 18)

Illusory Correlations (Unstructured Judgment Bias)

Perceiving a relationship between variables (e.g., mental disorders and violence) when none exists. (pp. 19, 34)

Actuarial Assessments

Decisions based on risk factors selected and combined based on empirical or statistical association; more accurate than clinical judgments. (p. 20)

Static-99R

Most widely used actuarial sex offender risk assessment instrument developed by Hanson & Thornton (10 static items). (p. 21)

Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ)

Instruments containing empirically-based static and dynamic risk factors to bridge the gap between prediction and prevention. (p. 24)

HCR-20

An example of a Structured Professional Judgement tool (Historical, Clinical, Risk factors). (p. 25)

False Positive (Prediction Outcome)

Predicted to reoffend, but does not reoffend; affects the offender (wrongfully labeled). (pp. 32-33)

False Negative (Prediction Outcome)

Predicted not to reoffend, but does reoffend; affects society (violent offender goes free). (pp. 32-33)

Overconfidence Bias

Minimal association between a clinician's confidence in a judgment and its actual accuracy. (p. 34)

Protective Factors

Factors that reduce or mitigate the likelihood of violence. (p. 36)

Desistance (from offending)

Why people stop offending (e.g., maturation, situational factors). (p. 36)

Ewert v. Canada (2015)

SCC case ruling that the use of risk assessments posed a "clear danger" to Indigenous offenders who are already disadvantaged. (p. 37)