Sustainability, Demographics, Climate, and Resilience Save

Capital Assets Framework

Grand Challenges/Opportunities, Sustainability Concepts, The Built Environment

Demographic transitions (2000-2010)

More people living in urban areas than rural areas, More older people (over 60) than younger people, Median woman worldwide having too few or just enough children to replace parents

World population distribution change in 2007

More people lived in urban areas than rural areas

Median fertility rate of women worldwide

Too few or just enough children to replace parents

Population of Atlanta metropolitan statistical area (2021)

Nearly 6.14 million

Georgia counties with double-digit population growth (2010-2020)

Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, Dekalb, and Chatham

Megacity definition

A city with 10 million or more people

Megacities in 1950

One megacity — New York

Megacities in 2023

45

Percentage of world's population living within 100 km of a coast

About 40%

Percentage of U.S. population living in coastal counties

About 40%

Evidence of atmospheric CO₂ increase since the Industrial Revolution

Ice core samples compared with direct measurements

Definition of climate change

Any significant change in climate measures lasting for decades or longer

Natural factors causing climate change

Volcanic eruptions, orbital variations, solar variations, plate tectonics

Global warming definition

Increase in global average surface temperature due to natural or anthropogenic climate change

Consequences of global warming related to ice

Melting ice caps, Feedback loop from reflective ice loss, Release of trapped CO₂

Carbon trapped in Arctic ice vs. annual human output

200-800 gigatons vs. 7 gigatons per year from humans

Global average sea level rise since 1880

8-9 inches

Current rate of sea level rise vs. 20th century

More than doubled (0.14 in/yr vs. 0.06 in/yr)

High-tide flooding frequency increase

300%-900% more frequent

Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the U.S. (2023)

25

Total cost of U.S. billion-dollar disasters since 1980

Over $2.77 trillion

National Academies' definition of resilience

Ability to prepare, plan for, absorb, recover from, or adapt to adverse events

FHWA's definition of resilience

Ability to anticipate, prepare for, adapt to, withstand, respond to, and recover from disruptions

Goal of Atlanta's Resilience Strategy

Build an equitable future for the city

Year renewable energy sources projected to account for half of global electricity production

2035

Top five renewable resources (2018)

Hydro, Wind, Solar, Biomass, Geothermal

GDP definition

Total market value of finished goods and services within a country over a period

Gini Coefficient definition

Distribution of income or wealth across a population (inequality)

Poverty rate in Atlanta

22.4%

Atlanta's rank in income inequality among U.S. cities

Second most unequal city (2022 Forbes ranking)

UN's 1987 definition of sustainable development

Development that meets present needs without compromising future generations

End poverty

End hunger / sustainable agriculture

Ensure healthy lives

Quality education

Gender equality

Resilient infrastructure & innovation

Sustainable cities

Factors affecting sustainable development related to population

Growth, rapid urbanization, public health, economic wellbeing, social equity

Factors affecting sustainable development related to natural resource use

Extraction of non-renewables, increasing consumption of energy, water, materials

Factors affecting sustainable development related to climate change

Sea level rise, air pollution, smog, global warming, drought, floods, hurricanes

Factors affecting sustainable development related to land surface degradation

Desertification, deforestation, soil erosion, habitat loss

Factors affecting sustainable development related to waste and pollution

Fertilizer/pesticide impacts, biodiversity loss, acid rain, river and aquifer pollution, ocean pollution

Factors affecting sustainable development related to the built environment

Civil infrastructure quality/availability, funding, institutions, emerging technologies

Key questions for infrastructure investment impacts

Who pays? Who benefits? Who bears environmental impacts? Who decides?

Civil Rights Act of 1964

Law forbidding discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, or national origin in federally funded programs.

Americans with Disabilities Act (1990, amended 2009)

Law prohibiting discrimination against individuals with disabilities in all areas of public life.

Four fundamental principles in the ASCE Code of Ethics

Create safe, resilient, sustainable infrastructure; Treat all persons with respect, dignity, and fairness; Consider current and future societal needs; Enhance quality of life for humanity.

ASCE's vision for civil engineers by 2025

Entrusted to create a sustainable world and enhance global quality of life.

Five roles of civil engineers in the 2025 vision

Master planners, designers, constructors, operators of the built environment; Stewards of the natural environment; Innovators and integrators across sectors; Managers of risk and uncertainty; Leaders in policy discussions and decisions.

Joint objectives of sustainable development

Meeting human needs and aspirations while preserving life support systems.

Sustainable development reconciliation

Society's developmental goals with environmental limits.

Three categories of what is to be sustained

Nature (Earth, biodiversity, ecosystems); Life support (ecosystem services, resources, environment); Community (cultures, groups, places).

Three categories of what is to be developed

People (child survival, life expectancy, education, equity, opportunity); Economy (wealth, productive sectors, consumption); Society (institutions, social capital, states, regions).

Definition of sustainable development by Deakin (2001)

Development that improves quality of life while protecting the environment and honoring local culture and history.

Five sustainability criteria in the ASCE Envision Rating System

Quality of Life, Leadership, Resource Allocation, Natural World, Climate and Risk.

Social resilience

Includes demographic attributes, education, health, transport/communication access, health insurance coverage.

Economic resilience

Comprises economic vitality, housing capital, equitable incomes, employment, business size, physician access.

Institutional resilience

Mitigation

Planning, prior disaster experience, risk reduction capacity, local engagement, organizational linkages, social system protection

Infrastructural resilience

Community response/recovery capacity, sheltering, rental housing, healthcare, household resilience, property vulnerability

Community resilience

Relationships between people and their communities, political engagement, social capital, civic/religious/advocacy participation

Natural resources protected by forests

Many plant and animal species

Forests support photosynthesis

By fixing CO₂ and renewing O₂

Forests help clean the environment

By muffling noise, stopping dust and gases, lowering wind strength

Forests regulate surface water runoff

By controlling erosion

Recreational role of forests

Spaces for human recreation and enjoyment

Decline of world plant and animal populations (1970-2014)

About 60%

Habitat loss

Destruction, fragmentation, or degradation of habitat

Main drivers of habitat loss in the U.S.

Agriculture, land conversion, water development, pollution, global warming

Primary threat to wildlife survival

Habitat loss

Trees cut down each year worldwide

Approximately 15 billion

Percentage of global species impacted by land clearing

About 80%

Role of deforestation in climate change

Reduces forests' ability to absorb carbon, worsening climate change impacts

Biggest threats facing plants and animals worldwide

Habitat destruction

Broader impact of habitat loss on Earth's systems

Weakens the planet's ability to sustain life

Why infrastructure agencies should consider resilience

Disruptions like Atlanta's Snowmaggedon (2014), Atlanta flooding (2015), and the I-85 bridge collapse (2017) highlight the need for systems that can anticipate, prepare for, adapt to, withstand, and recover from hazards.

Five key elements of resilience

Planning & Preparation, Absorption, Recovery, Adaptation, and Transformation

Difference between engineering resilience and ecological resilience

Engineering resilience: Quick return to a single equilibrium (one stable state). Ecological resilience: Transformation under unfamiliar shocks with multiple possible equilibria.

Shifts in resilience thinking for infrastructure

From post-disaster recovery → reducing likelihood of failure ('build back better'). From infrastructure quality → system performance (services, not just structures). From static resistance → complex adaptive systems perspective.

What matters more than infrastructure structures themselves

The services they provide to users and decision-makers according to Wilbanks & Fernandez (2014).

Resilience in complex adaptive systems

The ability to withstand, recover from, and reorganize in response to crises, maintaining function even if system structure changes.

4 Rs of resilience

Robustness, Recovery, Resourcefulness, Redundancy

Exposure in the context of resilience

The severity of a hazard an asset experiences during a known event.

Sensitivity in the context of resilience

The likely damage to an asset given a certain level of exposure.

Adaptive capacity in the context of resilience

The ability of an asset to recover from damage or compensate for lost service.

Criticality in the context of resilience

The dependence of users and communities on an asset for life and livelihood.

Formula for vulnerability

Vulnerability = f(exposure (+), sensitivity (+), adaptive capacity (-)).

Formula for risk

Risk = f(exposure (+), sensitivity (+), adaptive capacity (-), criticality (+)).

Tool developed for GDOT to assess hazards, vulnerability, and risk

The Multi Hazards Exposure, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (MHEVRA) Tool, developed by the Infrastructure Research Group (IRG).