voting behaviour evidence

how do young people vote?

2024 - 18-24 - 41% lab v 8% con, 75% left v 17% right

how do old people vote?

2024 - 70+ - 20% lab v 46% con, 34% left v 61% right

why are young people more left wing?

may be because younger people are often more dependent on the welfare state so support more left wing parties. Most young people are or have recently been in education in state schools, often have student loans for the cost of university, and also often benefit from free healthcare. They also may have benefited from things like free school meals (25.7% of kids in Jan 2025). Also often more socially liberal due to higher educational attainment and greater normalisation of things like queerness and immigration.

why are old people more right wing?

As people get older, they generally make more money and give up more for the welfare state, and may have more responsibilities like houses or children, so are less willing to be taxed. 

age and difference in turnout

2019 47% of 18-24 voted and 74% of 65+

how has age failed to influence elections?

When parties have been successful among young people, it hasn’t won them the elections. In 2017 jeremy corbyn was very popular among young people and won 62% of votes from 18-24 year olds (according to ipsos mori). However he still lost. There was a reported youthquake but only 54% of 18-24 year olds voted. 

swing voters

About 40% of people who voted in 2019 and 2024 voted for different parties, and in 2010, 2015 and 2017 the numbers were 32%, 43% and 33%. 

how is valence important?

In the most important change elections parties win because of valence factors - for example in 2024 people saw the tories as incompetent because of their handling of covid, partygate, liz truss’ mini budget and the cost of living crisis. In 2010 the tories won because of the financial crisis and in 1997 labour partly won because of black wednesday and the tories’ reputation for sleaze after scandals like cash for questions. 

party class divide for constituencies

In 2017 lab had 72/100 most working class seats

impact of regions

Since the 1980s there has been a clear north/south divide (excl london, scotland and wales)

historic class voting pattern

1964 - 64% of DE voted lab and 78% of AB voted con

why do classes vote differently?

Policies were aimed at diff classes - con had policies like limiting trade union power, lower taxes and privatisation, lab had nationalisation, pro trade union, higher taxes and welfare state. The two main parties were created to represent the working/middle class.

how has class voting decreased recently

many wc areas in the north voted for brexit and voted conservative in 2017 and 2019 - issue voting rather than class and region

how has class voting decreased less recently

Blair did well in south, margaret thatcher won more working class support because of policies like right to buy

what has changed about labour and class?

lab has moved away from trade unions and wc to general social justice - trade union donations have hugely decreased, things like civil partnerships and other socially liberal policies that traditional supporters wouldn't have liked.

what has changed about tories and class?

Conservative more socially liberal policies like same sex marriage, increasing tax on businesses to pay for the pandemic etc

how did class affect voting in 2024?

Most of the differences in how classes voted in 2014 were small. Support for labour ranged from 36% (AB and C1) to 32% (C2) and for the tories from 27% (A1) to 23% (C1 and DE).

what was the biggest class divide in 2024?

The most significant difference was support for reform - 20% of C2DE vs 11% of ABC1 in 2024 - care more about issues like immigration and ‘woke’ politics. This difference has continued in opinion polls.

how did people with a high level of education vote in 2024

In 2024 42% of people with a degree or higher voted for labour and 18% for the tories.

how did people with a low level of education vote in 2024?

28% of people with gcses or less voted for labour and 31% for the tories

how did different educational levels vote for reform?

only 8% of people with a high level of education voted for reform, compared to 23% of people with a low level of education.

why does education impact voting?

Having a higher level of education tends to have a liberalising effect, by teaching critical thinking and exposing people to others with very different lives, making them often more accepting of differences.

how has education failed to impact election trends?

education levels have increased significantly in recent decades - 7.5% of young people in 1980 to 50% of young people in 2024. This hasn’t led to any significant changes in how often labour or the tories win elections

how does education have a small impact on election results?

Parties dont usually win elections by winning the votes of one educational group - in 2019 there was a similar pattern of more support for labour among more educate voters and for the conservatives among less educated voters. The swing to labour was visible across all educational levels in 2024, suggesting education is not significant in who wins an election.

how did bame people intend to vote 2024

53% bame intended to vote lab in 2024 and 14% con

what is the voting divide for black people?

72% labour v 11% tory

how did the country as a whole vote?

only 33.7% voted labour and 23.7% tory

why do ethnic minorities tend to support lab?

Labour has traditionally been more pro immigration and anti racism with policies like 1948 british nationality act - introduced by lab to make all empire citizens british citizens, 1965 race relations act - banned segregation, 2010 - equalities act.

why are ethnic minorities less likely to vote for tories?

Tories have traditionally been more anti immigration and racist - in 1968 enoch powell did the rivers of blood speech. Police brutality and mistreatment of BAME people, especially black people, has been an issue in the uk - in the year ending march 2023 black people were stopped and searched about 4 times more than white people, there are cases like stephen lawrences, who was murdered in a racist attack, and the police didnt investigate properly - tories associated more with strong law and order. The windrush scandal in 2018 deported and denied services to people who were in the windrush generation and in the uk legally.

how do bame voters have limited impact?

only 18% of the country is BAME and turnout is consistently low, meaning that winning the bame vote does not help parties much and doesn’t win parties elections. 

how is grouping voters based on ethnicity reductive?

It is also reductive to say people vote based on ethnicity - there are big differences in how different ethnic minorities vote - eg 6% of jews voted labour in 2019 - antisemitism in labour party. 26% of bangladeshi + pakistani people intended to vote green in 2024 - labour stance on palestine. Parties would have to do different things to win different groups. At the same time, winning the white vote would be very hard, because most of white peoples interests and opinions differ significantly due to class, region, age and other factors, and few policies would appeal to people because they are white. 

what was the trend of gender voting at first?

historically, women voted more for conservatives and men for labour - the conservatives were seen as the party of housewives and traditional values, labour were the party of unions, and much more men worked than women.

how did gender voting change?

As women joined the workforce and traditional industries in the uk declined, labour won more support from women and the tories won more support from men. In 1997, for the first time men and women voted the same amount for labour, 44%. This trend has continued since then.

how did men and women vote for different parties in 2024?

34% of men and 35% of women voted Labour with the Lib Dems also receiving an almost identical vote share from men (12%) and women (13%). Slightly more women voted Conservative than men (26% to 23%) while more men voted Reform UK than women (17% to 12%).

how have attempts to use gender in elections failed?

Attempts to win the women's vote have been criticised - in 2015 labour tried to appeal to women with female MPs going on a tour in a pink bus that said woman to woman - this was widely criticised for being patronising.

what big economic problems were there in 1979?

inflation and unemployment were both at post war highs - inflation was 13% and unemployment was 5.4%. This created the perception that labour was unable to manage the economy. 

what other labour related problem was there in 1979?

There was a perception that labour was doing a bad job of managing trade unions - the winter of discontent was in 1978 to 1979, and involved strikes of rubbish collectors, nhs workers, grave diggers and more industries, in response to the government policy to cap wage increases at 5%

what did the labour leader do wrong before the 1979 election?

James Callaghan was seen as out of touch with the economic situation - he denied that there was a crisis, leading to the famous Sun headline “Crisis? What Crisis”

how did labour get weaker before the 1979 election?

The party lost its majority in 1976, and continued losing seats in by elections and through defections. This forced them to make a weak lib lab pact which collapsed in 1979. James Callaghan lost a vote of confidence in april, which forced him to call an election 5 weeks later on 3rd may.

how were the tories seen as competent 1979?

The conservatives were seen as more likely to handle the economy well and to govern competently - in opinion polls before the election, 41% thought the Tory shadow cabinet would be more capable and 36% thought the Labour cabinet was more capable. 

how did the conservatives succeed independently of labour failure 1979?

There was a 5.2% swing in votes towards the conservatives, meaning that people weren’t just voting for labour less, they were voting for the conservatives more. This suggests that the conservatives were becoming more popular in general, independent of labour’s weakness

how did class influence the 1979 election?

the number of people identifying as middle class, who traditionally voted for the conservatives, was growing. 

how did the tories succeed at winning new groups?

The conservative campaign appealed to new groups, including by using advertising aimed at trade unionists and photos that tried to appeal to housewives. This led to an 11% swing towards the tories w C2 voters and 9% w DE voters, and women becoming more likely to vote tory

what was a popular tory policy 1979?

they were more in favour of home ownership, and their Right to Buy policy, which would let people buy their council homes at a discount, was popular, including among traditional working class labour voters, and may have attracted new voters

what was the main tory policy 1979?

They also promised to curb trade union power in their manifesto. There was a growing sense that trade unions had too much power under labour, especially after the winter of discontent, which involved strikes of nhs workers, rubbish collectors, grave diggers and more. They also promised to lower taxes.

how was policy ignored 1979?

their campaign did little to promote policies, instead it tried to appeal to new groups of voters in the centre by promoting the view that they would be more competent economically and at governing. Their political broadcasts emphasised the seriousness of the crisis rather than making points about policy.

how was the manifesto unimportant 1979?

The tories were also leading in the polls long before their manifesto was published, outlining their policies. The manifesto was published in april 1979 and they had been ahead of labour in polls since june 1978

how was policy not a big factor in people choosing 1979?

Additionally, the labour and conservative manifestos had quite similar policies on the economy, including to deal with trade unions, lower taxation, higher employment and controlling inflation. The main difference between the two parties on the economy is that the tories were trusted more to carry out their promises. 

what issues were there with Margaret thatchers reputation 1979?

she had a reputation as “Thatcher the milk snatcher” from her time as education minister, when she ended free milk in primary schools.

how was Margaret thatcher’s reputation changed?

The campaign aimed to present her as a caring housewife and mother. She had previously had a voice coach to soften her image. They took photos of her holding a calf, walking a dog on a beach and drinking tea, also to soften her image.

how did tory campaigning succeed 1979?

Their ads were produced by Saatchi and Saatchi, the biggest advertising agency in the world. These ads appealed to trade unionists, explaining why they should vote for the conservatives. They also focused on the failures of labour with the economy. One well known poster said “labour isn't working”, and showed a line of people outside an unemployment office.

how was Margaret thatcher successful at promoting herself 1979?

Thatcher, Callaghan and the leader of the lib dems appeared on tv in front of an audience, who questioned them. Margaret Thatcher performed better than James Callaghan - she emphasised that most of the country, including trade unionists wanted to pay lower tax and have strong law and order and more, while Callaghan came across as nervous and defensive. 

how was the tory campaign not that important 1979?

the campaign began 5 weeks before the election in may, and the tories had been leading in the polls since june in 1979. Their campaign may have improved their image and increased their vote share, but it was not the reason for their win.

how did some aspects of the tory campaign fail 1979?

some aspects of their campaign were unpopular. The “labour isn't working” was not very popular with the public, despite being well known and widely distributed. If anything, it damaged their campaign

how did labour succeed with the media 1997?

they wanted to avoid the mistakes of the labour party in 1992. Neil Kinnock and his labour party had been attacked frequently by the media, especially the sun. Tony Blair courted the Murdoch press, including by visiting Rupert Murdoch in australia. On election day, the Sun published the headline “The Sun Backs Blair”

what was the result of labour’s media strategy 1997?

The biggest increase in labour support was from readers of the Sun

who helped labour campaign 1997?

They hired Alistair Campbell as press secretary. He was a former daily mirror editor and a spin doctor and helped manage the campaign and the criticisms of the party. 

how did labour deal with criticism 1997?

They quickly dealt with criticism - the tories accused them of being a high tax, high spend party, and they dealt with it, promising that they would not raise tax and not spend money they didn't have. 

how did the tory campaign fail 1997?

The Tories spent much of their campaign attacking labour and trying to deal with allegations of sleaze. They were divided over the issue of europe. 

who was popular in the Labour Party 1997?

the labour party had a more popular leader - tony blair was seen as young, attractive and modern, while john major was seen as old, boring and out of touch

how did labour modernise their policy 1997?

They had modernised their policy and become less socialist and more socially liberal, with support for lower taxes, weaker links to trade unions and support for gay rights. This appealed to younger voters and more middle class voters

how was labour more united 1997?

The labour party was more united, with more extreme left wingers removed (especially under neil kinnock), and wide support for tony blair and new labour. The Tories were divided over europe. 

how were the tories unpopular 1997?

The Tories had a poor reputation due to scandals and allegations of sleaze.

how did labour leave behind socialist policies 1997?

They left behind their traditional, socialist working class roots, abandoning clause iv in their constitution (their commitment to nationalisation) and weakening links to trade unions through one member, one vote for party votes, which limited the influence of trade unions. 

how did labour use widely popular policies in 1997?

They made manageable, widely supported policies. Their 5 key policies were cutting class sizes to under 30 for 5, 6 and 7 year olds, fast tracking punishment for persistent young offenders, cutting NHS waiting lists, getting 250,000 under 25s off benefits and into employment, and setting tough rules for government spending and borrowing and keeping inflation and interest rates low. 

what was labour’s reputation before modernising policy? 

Labour had been seen as unable to govern since the late 70s, when they had presided over high inflation, high unemployment and the winter of discontent, when there were strikes in many key sectors including the nhs and rubbish collectors. 

how had labour policy already changed before 1997?

their policy hadn’t changed significantly since 1992. They held an internal policy review in the late 80s and early 90s, which led to less support for nationalisation and acceptance of the privatisation under Thatcher, support for lower taxes and lower spending, and greater support for the market economy. 

how was the media more important than policy 1992?

The main difference was that they were attacked more by the media. In 1992 the sun published the headline “If Kinnock wins today will the last person in Britain please turn out the lights?”. The constant attacks of the party in the media created the perception that they were unable to govern. 

how long had the tories been in power 1997?

18 years

how had the tories damaged their reputation a while before 1997?

They declined in popularity after introducing the poll tax in the late 80s and early 90s, a flat rate of council tax that didn't take house cost into account. This led to riots and refusals to pay the tax, until it was abolished. 

what big issue were the tories in power for a few years before 1997?

They had lost their reputation for economic competence after black wednesday in 1992, when the value of the pound collapsed and they were forced to withdraw the uk from the european exchange rate mechanism

how had tories damaged their reputations 1997?

They had a reputation for sleaze after several scandals, one of the biggest being the cash for questions scandal, when Tory MPs accepted bribes from lobbyists to ask certain questions in parliament. 

what was wrong with the tory leader 1997?

Their leader was also unpopular - john major was seen as old, boring, and out of touch

how are tories trusted more with the economy?

in elections when the most important issue to the electorate was the economy or specific economic issues, the conservatives tend to win, as happened in 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992 and 2010 (according to ipsos archives). This suggests that the conservatives are trusted more with the economy than labour, so if labour had not improved their image and gained the electorate’s trust on the economy, people would have voted for the tories despite their unpopularity 

why were the tories economic failures not that important?

The economy was recovering at the time of the election - inflation was low, it was growing, and unemployment was falling

how did labour clearly succeed?

The labour party won with a swing of 8 percentage points and a turnout of 77%. If they only won because the Tories lost, it is likely that they would have had a lower vote share, and a lower turnout, as more people would have been disillusioned, and fewer people would have trusted Labour enough to vote for them.

what had happened to labour’s economic reputation 2010?

after the financial crisis in 2008, they had lost their reputation for economic competence. Their support in polls dropped after the crisis and an icm poll in 2008 showed that only 32% believed labour could manage the economy, down from 48% the previous year and the lowest since 2002. Gordon brown had previously claimed to have ended the economies of boom and bust, and the recession after 2008 proved him wrong

what had damaged labour while they were in government 2010?

Labour’s support had also dropped after the start of the iraq war in 2003 and after it was revealed that there weren't weapons of mass destruction in iraq in 2004.

what was wrong with the labour leader 2010?

Gordon Brown was not very popular - he was considered indecisive, especially after he dithered over holding an election in the autumn after becoming PM, before deciding not to. 

what big mistake did gordon brown make?

In the campaign, gordon brown called a lifelong labour voter a ‘bigoted woman’ after she questioned him on immigration and spending

how was 2010 a clear loss for labour?

No other party clearly won, but labour clearly lost, losing 6.5 percentage points of votes, and 91 seats.

how had the tories become more popular in 2010?

the tories had become more popular and modernised under david cameron and other leaders since 1997, accepting things like same sex relationships and raising children outside of marriage. This helped attract more centrist and average voters.

how had the lib dems become more popular 2010?

The lib dems were also becoming more popular, with support for scrapping tuition fees and a new kind of politics, with things like electoral reform.

how was David Cameron important 2010?

david cameron was more popular than previous tory leaders. He was young and charismatic and had kinder and more modern policies than previous tories. He prioritised good public services and wealth redistribution more than previous tories and cutting taxes less. Also since 1997, the tories had accepted same sex relationships and parents raising children outside of marriage, part of their departure from margaret thatcher’s ‘family values’. Was also more in favour of protecting civil liberties and stopping climate change.

what was the evidence for David Cameron’s popularity?

In 2005, 66% of the country saw him as a potential prime minister, according to an ICM poll. In january 2010, 43% of the country was satisfied with how he was doing his job, quite a large number

how was nick Clegg important 2010?

Nick clegg was very popular. In january 2010, 42% were satisfied with how he was doing his job. He was considered to have won the first tv debate, after winning the draw to speak first. He spoke about a new kind of politics, which attracted voters who were dissatisfied with labour and the tories. After the debate, the lib dems went up by 10 percentage points in the polls. Gordon Brown said “I agree with Nick” so much that it trended on twitter for days after. He was successful in other televised debates. This popularity was known as cleggmania. 

how was nick Clegg’s popularity not that important?

although nick clegg was personally popular, this didnt translate to much more success. They only one 1 percentage point higher vote share, and lost 5 seats in the election. His personal approval ratings were consistently much higher than the support for the lib dems. In reality they were mainly in the government because it was the most practical coalition formation. Other than a labour/tory coalition, the tories and lib dems was the only possible two party coalition partnership that would create a majority government. They also had fairly similar policies in many areas.

how was David Cameron’s popularity not that important?

While david cameron was more popular than previous tories, it couldn’t have been that significant as he only won 36% of the votes and not enough seats to form a majority government. Their vote share only increased by 3.7 percentage points from the previous election.

what did the tory campaign focus on 2010?

the Tories used their campaign to argue that labour had been spending irresponsibly and that they wouldn't implement the spending cuts necessary to recover from the financial crisis, through speeches and ads and other methods. In may 2010, ipsos polls showed that 71% of people thought the economy was the biggest issue facing the country, the highest level of concern recorded at that point. The tory campaign used the fear about the economy

what specific campaigning tactic did the tories use 2010?

They put ads on lorries criticising gordon brown, with images of him and messages like “I doubled national debts. Let me do it again”

how did the Lib Dem campaign succeed?

The lib dems also had quite a successful campaign, where they talked a lot about a new kind of politics, which attracted disillusioned voters. They had some popular policies with disadvantaged groups, like scrapping tuition fees.

how did campaigns make a small difference 2010?

the lib dems vote share only increased by 1 percentage points and the tories by 3.7 percentage points from the previous election. In opinion polls support for the tories decreased slightly in the months before the election, suggesting that their campaign didnt have a very significant positive effect.

what was the most important tory policy 2019?

Boris Johnson promised a quick Brexit, using the slogan “get Brexit done”. This appealed to the public, who were bored and tired of Theresa May’s approach of trying to unite both sides of her party and get an ideal deal. It also attracted voters who generally supported labour but did not like their approach of negotiating a deal and then holding another referendum on leaving with the deal or remaining

which new voters did the tories attract 2019?

This strategy attracted many traditional ‘red wall’ labour voters from the midlands and the northwest who had voted to leave. They won 54 seats from labour, many of which hadnt had a tory mp for decades, or even for centuries or since being created.

how was brexit an important factor on the 2019 election?

Brexit was the most important issue to people when voting, with the media framing it as the ‘brexit’ election and with brexit considered the most important political issue to the country, across all demographic groups, in 2019. This meant that they won lots of votes over the single issue of brexit

what other policies did the tories have 2019?

Apart from brexit, they made few policy promises and none that were controversial. They promised a slight decrease in national insurance and a slight increase in public spending, and more nurses and police officers.

how were leaders important 2019?

boris johnson was the most popular of all the leaders. He had the highest net approval rating of -1%, with the next most popular leaders being jo swinson and nigel farage, with -16%

how did tory tactics succeed 2019?

The tories had an effective media strategy - they avoided risky interviews and debates, they attacked labour, and they ddint go into detail, so people wouldnt have to think much about what they said

what issues did Jeremy Corbyn have 2019?

in late october to early november 2019, an opinium poll showed that jeremy corbyn had an approval rating of only -38%. 60% of people believed he was untrustworthy in december 2019.

how did the media harm Jeremy Corbyn?

He was frequently attacked by the media - headlines called him a “court jezster” and accused him of wanting to abolish the army and hating the royals.