0.2 The Need for Psychological Science

Would it be surprising if many of psychology’s findings had not been foreseen?

No

Why would it not be surprising if many of psychology’s findings had not been foreseen?

We are all behavior watchers

Is what seems like common sense always correct?

No

What seems like common sense is informed by:

Countless casual observations and repetition of statements

Repetition of statements makes them:

Easier to process and remember

Statements that are easier to process and remember makes them more:

True-seeming

What can easy-to-remember misconceptions do to hard truths?

Overwhelm them

What are the three roadblocks to critical thinking?

Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and perceiving patterns in random events

Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and perceiving patterns in random events help illusstrate why:

We cannot rely solely on common sense

Hindsight bias is also known as the:

I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon

The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it

Hindsight bias

What’s wrong with common sense in terms of hindsight bias?

It describes, after the fact, what has happened better than it predicts what will happen

Example of hindsight bias:

After an oil spill, the workers might believe that their judgments were foolish and that the incident was preventable, but in reality they could not have foreseen it

The tendency of humans to think that we know more than we do

Overconfidence

Overconfidence drives us to ______ thinking

Quick but incorrect

Example of overconfidence:

When given solutions beside questions, knowing the answers causes us to underestimate the time we would need to arrive at them

What percent of people excel at predicting social behavior?

2

The people who excel at predicting social behavior are called:

Superforecasters

Superforecasters avoid:

Overconfidene

What do superforecasters do to settle on an answer?

Gather facts and balance clashing arguments

We are born with an eagerness to:

Make sense of the world

What do we find in random data?

Patterns

Why do we find patterns in random data?

Random sequences often don’t look random

Example of perceiving patterns in random data:

Hot and cold streaks in basketball shooting and baseball hitting

Is it hard for people to generate random-like sequences?

Yes

Why is it hard for people to generate random-like sequences?

In random sequences, patterns and streaks occur more often than people expect

Why are we so prone to pattern-seeking?

A random, unpredictable world is unsettling, so making sense of the world relieves stress and helps us get on with daily living

Overconfidence results from:

Confirmation bias

Limitation of scientific inquiry:

Can only address some testable questions

Systematic errors in thinking

Cognitive bias

Cognitive biases are like:

Shortcuts taken by our brains

The brain uses cognitive biases to:

Make processing information easier and quicker

Cognitive biases often lead us to:

Incorrect conclusions

Types of cognitive bias:

Hindsight bias, overconfidence bias, confirmation bias

Hindsight bias happens when:

After an event has occurred, we believe we predicted it beforehand

Hindsight bias makes outcomes seem:

Obvious and inevitable

Example of hindsight bias:

After a sports game, you might think that your team knew they would win, even though you had had doubts before the game

Why is hindsight bias misleading?

Makes us overestimate our ability to predict events and blinds us to the reality of uncertainty

Overconfidence bias occurs when we:

Overestimate the accuracy of our knowledge and judgements

Example of overconfidence bias:

You might be certain you aced an exam, only to find out that you had made several mistakes

Why is overconfidence bias misleading?

Leads to poor decision-making

Why does overconfidence bias lead to poor decision-making?

We don’t seek out additional information or consider other viewpoints

The tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms our preexisting beliefs or opinions

Confirmation bias

Confirmation bias causes us to evaluate all evidence in a what manner?

Unobjective

Confirmation bias causes us to give more weight to information that:

Supports what we already think

Confirmation bias causes us to discount evidence that:

Contradicts our views

Example of confirmation bias:

If you strongly support a political party, you are more likely to favor news outlets and opinions that align with your views and ignore those that don’t, reinforcing your existing beliefs

Why is confirmation bias misleading?

Skews our perception of reality, leads to poor decision-making, and can cause polarization

How can confirmation bias cause polarization?

By disregarding opposing viewpoints